New England -2 2 Units
Although Gronk is out and Mack is in I can't help but bite on a chance to take New England and lay less than a field goal...against Mitch Trubisky. I get that Mitch has put in a couple of big weeks but I am absolutely not buying into him whatsoever. I think he's still way too erratic and although the Bears do have some talent on offense I don't expect them to be able to match Tom Brady and Sony Michel today.
Tampa -3.5 4 Units
I think Cleveland is going to be really good next year, but I still feel they are a year away. Tampa has their flaws but they are a high powered offense and I'm still Jameis Winston's biggest fan. Cleveland has pieces on defense but I don't think they are a unit capable of stopping an offense like Tampa that has so many different weapons that can hurt you.
Detroit -3 2 Units
Brock Osweiler may have a few people fooled coming off that randomly awesome performance last week but I can assure you that I am not the one. Osweiler is still terrible and he did absolutely nothing in last weeks win other than check down and throw screens that Wilson and company broke for long gains. Additionally, Miami has a nice defense when able to scheme a gameplan but with Detroit's trio of receivers they have the type of balanced attack that will not allow for the Fins to stop.
Colts -7 1 Unit
Buffalo is not fooling Vegas and they are definitely not fooling me. With TY Hilton healthy again I think the Colts just have too many weapons for the solid Bills defense to consistently stop. With the Bills historically bad offense it just becomes a matter of time before Indy proves too much and pulls away. Indy's defense is also scrappy and going against Derek Anderson there is no reason to be concerned today.
Saints ML +125 1 Unit
This is just a case of taking the high powered offense over the high powered defense in the 2018 NFL. Although I do believe that the Ravens are a legitimately solid team I do not think they are as upper echelon as others and I believe as the season wares on they will show their faults. The Saints currently are clicking on all cylinders offensively and in the climate that is the NFL even a good defense like Baltimore could be powerless against Drew Brees.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Week 7 NFL Plays
One quick this morning with more to come...
The London game presents a unique opportunity...
Titans +6.5 3 Units
Titans ML +230 1 Unit
I typically avoid the London games because it creates an element of the unknown that an honest bettor would realize he can't foresee. In this instance however I think there is some potential value on the dog...with the Chargers heading to Cleveland last week we have a very rare case of a team travelling like this. We don't know that it will hurt their play today but we do know that it is unusual and has the chance to negatively impact their energy level....in addition to that we have a scenario where I think Tennessee is being a little undervalued. They play very ugly football but they still have a nice front-7. They also need to start establishing the run early and I think given the conditions today they will finally resort to their best strategy. In a game that feels a lot more like a coinflip than the certainty some are assuming, I'll take the points and a small stab at the positive ML to start the day.
The London game presents a unique opportunity...
Titans +6.5 3 Units
Titans ML +230 1 Unit
I typically avoid the London games because it creates an element of the unknown that an honest bettor would realize he can't foresee. In this instance however I think there is some potential value on the dog...with the Chargers heading to Cleveland last week we have a very rare case of a team travelling like this. We don't know that it will hurt their play today but we do know that it is unusual and has the chance to negatively impact their energy level....in addition to that we have a scenario where I think Tennessee is being a little undervalued. They play very ugly football but they still have a nice front-7. They also need to start establishing the run early and I think given the conditions today they will finally resort to their best strategy. In a game that feels a lot more like a coinflip than the certainty some are assuming, I'll take the points and a small stab at the positive ML to start the day.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Official Plays
Bengals -2.5
Really a situational play and a fade of the 49ers here. 1 o'clock east coast game for a bit of a soft team. Very nervous that Vernon Davis is sitting on a big one...Gore should get it going a bit more today...and if Crabtree is actually healthy he'll help. Still, it's Alex Smith on the road.
Bills +7
The more you look at it the more you see a banged up team on the road in what will be a very hostile atmosphere. I know everyone wants to give them a pass because it's Brady and it's the Pats, but losing your center and your most unguardable weapon hurts anyone. They'll still score it but that is a lot of road chalk to swallow.
Eagles -9
The Giants simply cannot cover the Eagles. The power running game that everyone is claiming they have doesn't really quite exist. The only reason, in my opinion, that they even have a shot to cover this game is because it looks like the game might be played on a bog. Still, Eagles have a chance of winning by 20+ here easily.
Dolphins +2
The Browns simply aren't that good and while maybe I am literally a fish for backing the Dolphins on the road, I simply can't help myself here. I just love a team like the fins that are all dirtied up. Much better than their record indicates and hopefully the turmoil between the front office, coaching staff and quarterback doesn't spill over here. Which is why a road game might help.
Jets -3
The more I've thought about this I think there is literally only one concern here - can the Jets show up to play on the West Coast? If they do I could see this thing getting out of hand. The Jets defense does the one thing that Oakland's offense is completely reliant on - stopping the running back. Their athletic wideouts proved too much for the Bills corners, but the heave it deep and let them go up and grab it method simply doesn't work against the Jets d-backs. Offensively, Sanchez will have to play a solid game but he is more than capable. If the offensive line steps up its play a notch they have a chance of turning this one ugly.
Packers -4
I just see this game as almost a carbon copy of last week when Chicago faced New Orleans. It's not that Chicago is a bad team, they just really struggle to keep up with the firepower of some of these teams. I'm seeing a Packers defense that wants to make a statement today. I know it's square and I know it's road chalk in a rivalry game that usually turns into a low-scoring slugfest, but I just think the Packers have the ability to put this one out of reach early.
***Adding***Houston +3.5
Bottom line here is that while I will regret not heeding my own advice here if they don't cover I'm just seeing value here. It seems like anyone you talk to is scared to death of Brees. I am to a degree but the value bettor in me just can't look at this game and not like it. What they are saying here is that the Saints are a tick better than the Texans. Really, I think the Texans are a better team than New Orleans, flat out. If they were home I'd line it -5.5. To be 3 point dogs would really make it a game I should play, at more than three I feel they are forcing my hand.
Not sure I will have time for explanation.
Really a situational play and a fade of the 49ers here. 1 o'clock east coast game for a bit of a soft team. Very nervous that Vernon Davis is sitting on a big one...Gore should get it going a bit more today...and if Crabtree is actually healthy he'll help. Still, it's Alex Smith on the road.
Bills +7
The more you look at it the more you see a banged up team on the road in what will be a very hostile atmosphere. I know everyone wants to give them a pass because it's Brady and it's the Pats, but losing your center and your most unguardable weapon hurts anyone. They'll still score it but that is a lot of road chalk to swallow.
Eagles -9
The Giants simply cannot cover the Eagles. The power running game that everyone is claiming they have doesn't really quite exist. The only reason, in my opinion, that they even have a shot to cover this game is because it looks like the game might be played on a bog. Still, Eagles have a chance of winning by 20+ here easily.
Dolphins +2
The Browns simply aren't that good and while maybe I am literally a fish for backing the Dolphins on the road, I simply can't help myself here. I just love a team like the fins that are all dirtied up. Much better than their record indicates and hopefully the turmoil between the front office, coaching staff and quarterback doesn't spill over here. Which is why a road game might help.
Jets -3
The more I've thought about this I think there is literally only one concern here - can the Jets show up to play on the West Coast? If they do I could see this thing getting out of hand. The Jets defense does the one thing that Oakland's offense is completely reliant on - stopping the running back. Their athletic wideouts proved too much for the Bills corners, but the heave it deep and let them go up and grab it method simply doesn't work against the Jets d-backs. Offensively, Sanchez will have to play a solid game but he is more than capable. If the offensive line steps up its play a notch they have a chance of turning this one ugly.
Packers -4
I just see this game as almost a carbon copy of last week when Chicago faced New Orleans. It's not that Chicago is a bad team, they just really struggle to keep up with the firepower of some of these teams. I'm seeing a Packers defense that wants to make a statement today. I know it's square and I know it's road chalk in a rivalry game that usually turns into a low-scoring slugfest, but I just think the Packers have the ability to put this one out of reach early.
***Adding***Houston +3.5
Bottom line here is that while I will regret not heeding my own advice here if they don't cover I'm just seeing value here. It seems like anyone you talk to is scared to death of Brees. I am to a degree but the value bettor in me just can't look at this game and not like it. What they are saying here is that the Saints are a tick better than the Texans. Really, I think the Texans are a better team than New Orleans, flat out. If they were home I'd line it -5.5. To be 3 point dogs would really make it a game I should play, at more than three I feel they are forcing my hand.
Not sure I will have time for explanation.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Cowherd's Blazing 5
The are Colin Cowherd's five picks for this weekend:
Raiders +3.5
Fins +2.5
Tennessee -7
Zona St.-2.5
Notre Dame -7
Leans Bills
He's 10-2 so far on the year apparently. I think he's a complete hack. Not recommending a fade or a tail here, just found it interesting enough to post.
Raiders +3.5
Fins +2.5
Tennessee -7
Zona St.-2.5
Notre Dame -7
Leans Bills
He's 10-2 so far on the year apparently. I think he's a complete hack. Not recommending a fade or a tail here, just found it interesting enough to post.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Sunday's 4 O'Clock Card
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego -14.5
O/U 44.5
We all know about the issues with Kansas City at this point. The line here says it all to me. If you thought that maybe KC was going to be competitive here - don't. Charging you 14 and still feeling the need to hook you means this one is going to get out of hand in all likelihood, but to bet on that you're going to have to lay heavy lumber and always run the risk of leaving the backdoor open.
Overall, I don't see anything much worth noting here, to me it's like cleavage on a heavy set girl - you take a glance and move on...
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets
Jets -3.5
O/U 41
I'm having a real hard time figuring out the Jets. Admittedly, I was sipping the kool-aid far too heavy in week 1 when laying far too many against a talented Dallas team. Not only was I on the wrong side, but it just felt like the Jets looked average. Sanchez didn't look special at QB. The offensive line was surprisingly overwhelmed by the Dallas front-seven. The defense shut down the run but offered very little by way of pass rush and even the secondary seemed vulnerable. While I didn't catch any of week 2, the fact that they couldn't get Shonne Green going on the ground against Jacksonville was alarming to say the least. The Jets are a solid team no doubt. You know my opinion of the Raiders. If this game were on the East Coast I'd have no problem laying 3 and would consider 3.5, but in Oakland? Not only does it seem square, but it just doesn't seem all that smart. Oakland came to the East Coast and was game as you like in Buffalo....to expect the Jets to go out and beat them by double-digits here just doesn't feel sharp.
In terms of backing Oakland I have little to say other than I would never do it. I don't like this team at all and I'm still probably going to look for a spot to fade them. Just because you think a team is a fade you don't have to fade them week-in, week-out. And just because they're playing a good team at a reasonable spread doesn't mean you are obliged to take your stand there, not when the situation is as sketchy as this one.
Bottom line is this - I think Dallas has a better front-seven than Oakland, but I'm not so sure the Oakland front-seven in Oakland can't be just as effective as the Dallas front-seven managed to be in New York. Make sense? While Sanchez has the receiving weapons to exploit the Oakland secondary, it is unclear if he has either the running game or the offensive line to do so.
Stay away at all costs in my opinion.
St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -3.5
O/U 42.5
If Baltimore doesn't feel square to you I don't know what to say. Everyone and their brother was looking for their line thinking to maybe catch some bounceback value after seemingly everyone in the entire public took a bath on them last week. While I refuse to believe that their blowout win over Pittsburgh was anything more than snowballing at its finest, I also refuse to believe that Baltimore is as bad as they showed last week...and hell, I liked the Titans there.
I think the truth about this Ravens team lies somewhere in between their first two weeks. And you know what? To me that puts the line in this game, on the road, right around 4. The Rams really haven't done anything egregious enough to make them much of a home dog against a 1-1 team. They lost to one of the NFL's most talented teams in the Eagles week 1. They followed that up with a performance in New York during primetime that was a true mixed bag - they showed some complex blitz packages, drove the ball with relative ease and yet continuously shot themselves in the foot. How much do you want the Rams to get here? 7? They have hardly done enough wrong to deserve that. I wouldn't have been surprised to see something like 4.5...but I would've had slight interest in the Rams there. At 7 I'd be all over them. At 3, it's yet another boring recommendation of passing onto the next.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bucs -2.5
O/U 45.5
Here we have a good matchup that should be fairly close. Both games between these two came down to the wire last year. Matty Ice and co. managed to sweep the series, but it's hard to look at the stats and feel that either team dominated by any stretch. In fact, the Bucs seemed to have their home game wrapped up before 4th quarter/late game heroics by Ice.
I know no one wants to like this Bucs team and to an extent you can count me in on that float. With that said, is there that much wrong with losing to the Lions in a one score game (though only due to a late TD) and then beating Minnesota on the road?
On the other hand the Falcons were trounced by a Bears team that came back and was uncompetitive against the Saints and were fortunate winners in a shootout against the Eagles. Not exactly enough evidence to send them to the electric chair but also nothing that gets my juices flowing about winning a road game against a decent divisional opponent.
If we like the Bucs, what are we relying on? Well, one of the issues is that Matt Ryan is pretty good at taking what you give him. Tampa will play bend don't break defense and Ryan will likely get his yards. The big key will be whether they can keep him, White, Gonzo and Turner out of the endzone. If they can, then you have to like the Bucs chances on offense of putting up some points. Let's face it, Atlanta's defense has been downright atrocious so far this year and I don't really see any reason for Tampa to buck that trend. In fact, this game looks prime for Freeman to get this Tampa offense untracked. Blount had a much better week 2 than week 1 and Mike Williams looks more and more like a powder keg ready to explode by the day. Throw in the development of Arrelious Benn and I just don't quite get why Tampa's offense isn't clicking a bit better so far.
This one deserves more thought, but the idea of laying less than a FG at home is quite appealing to me here. The difference between these two teams last year very well may have been greater and by all means the Bucs should've beaten them during their home game. Unless you really are wearing the Lil' John stunner shades and think that this Atlanta team is much better than their two recent efforts suggest, don't you have to like Tampa here?
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals -3.5
O/U 43
As much as I do consider myself resident Cardinals hater from day 1....and as much as I do think Seattle's homefield is still a major advantage, how on Earth do you back Seattle right now? They are purely pathetic. I feel like I've been talking about what a joke it is for Tavaris Jackson to be a starting QB for like 10 years now. Seriously folks, this guy couldn't complete over 50% of his passes against Alcorn St., Southern & co. He's not good. This isn't college, you can't just have enough speed to scramble every play and be effective as a QB. You actually have to be able to dissect defense and make big throws. At running back Marshawn Lynch isn't much different. No points are awarded for broken tackles. There are no extra yards walked off for breaking four tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The fact is, Marshawn Lynch is the nastiest player of Queer in the NFL currently and it's probably not close. He's also one of the absolutely least effective running backs in it.
But much like how I simply refuse to back the Raiders, I cannot back the Cardinals. Especially on the road in a tough atmosphere. I still have seen nothing out of Kevin Kolb that makes me afraid of fading this team. If you put a gun to my head I'd probably take Seattle for these reasons. But since I don't currently see any steel pointed in my direction I think I'll do the wise thing here and just move on.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -3.5
O/U 46
So clearly every road team in the NFL is a 3.5 point favorite, particularly all of those playing at 4. You have to think some win, some lose...figuring out which are which is a substantially harder task though. To me what we see here is a bit tricky. On the one hand the Packers are clearly a public favorite. After all, who doesn't feel good about backing Aaron Rodgers? On the other hand, is it somehow sharp to not like Aaron Rodgers? Let's face it, even the staunchest of Bears fans can easily see him Drew Brees-ing that defense apart. And while the Packers defense has been highly scrutinized, highly vulnerable and highly ineffective - we all pretty much know it's better than what it has showed so far right? What better opportunity to break out in a big way than against a shaky o-line, a QB that holds the ball far too long and a receiving corps that is pretty lifeless other than the running back.
To me, anyone thinking of backing the Bears here is being a bit cute. I understand that these games tend to be low-scoring slugfests. I am well aware of all the success that the Bears defense has seemingly had in slowing down Rodgers. But I also don't see a whole lot of reasons that Rodgers can't rip them to bits this weekend. And again, if you think, like me, that the Packers defense has every right to get it going this weekend, then 3.5 really doesn't look like the worst price to pay to get to back Rodgers. Usually when I see 3.5 I look for reasons to like the dog. It's nice to be able to trail by 10 points and still have the backdoor open. Especially against a defense that has been giving up as many points as Green Bay's has. But again, the Bears offered little resistance against the Saints last week and even at home I think they are facing a taller task here.
With all that said the Packers are now without Nick Collins. Chuck Woodson and Clay Matthews did not practice last I checked. Chad Clifton, Tramon Williams and Ryan Pickett were all limited. Not sure yet of the official status of these players but it is a major concern, especially against a physical team like the Bears.
San Diego -14.5
O/U 44.5
We all know about the issues with Kansas City at this point. The line here says it all to me. If you thought that maybe KC was going to be competitive here - don't. Charging you 14 and still feeling the need to hook you means this one is going to get out of hand in all likelihood, but to bet on that you're going to have to lay heavy lumber and always run the risk of leaving the backdoor open.
Overall, I don't see anything much worth noting here, to me it's like cleavage on a heavy set girl - you take a glance and move on...
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets
Jets -3.5
O/U 41
I'm having a real hard time figuring out the Jets. Admittedly, I was sipping the kool-aid far too heavy in week 1 when laying far too many against a talented Dallas team. Not only was I on the wrong side, but it just felt like the Jets looked average. Sanchez didn't look special at QB. The offensive line was surprisingly overwhelmed by the Dallas front-seven. The defense shut down the run but offered very little by way of pass rush and even the secondary seemed vulnerable. While I didn't catch any of week 2, the fact that they couldn't get Shonne Green going on the ground against Jacksonville was alarming to say the least. The Jets are a solid team no doubt. You know my opinion of the Raiders. If this game were on the East Coast I'd have no problem laying 3 and would consider 3.5, but in Oakland? Not only does it seem square, but it just doesn't seem all that smart. Oakland came to the East Coast and was game as you like in Buffalo....to expect the Jets to go out and beat them by double-digits here just doesn't feel sharp.
In terms of backing Oakland I have little to say other than I would never do it. I don't like this team at all and I'm still probably going to look for a spot to fade them. Just because you think a team is a fade you don't have to fade them week-in, week-out. And just because they're playing a good team at a reasonable spread doesn't mean you are obliged to take your stand there, not when the situation is as sketchy as this one.
Bottom line is this - I think Dallas has a better front-seven than Oakland, but I'm not so sure the Oakland front-seven in Oakland can't be just as effective as the Dallas front-seven managed to be in New York. Make sense? While Sanchez has the receiving weapons to exploit the Oakland secondary, it is unclear if he has either the running game or the offensive line to do so.
Stay away at all costs in my opinion.
St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -3.5
O/U 42.5
If Baltimore doesn't feel square to you I don't know what to say. Everyone and their brother was looking for their line thinking to maybe catch some bounceback value after seemingly everyone in the entire public took a bath on them last week. While I refuse to believe that their blowout win over Pittsburgh was anything more than snowballing at its finest, I also refuse to believe that Baltimore is as bad as they showed last week...and hell, I liked the Titans there.
I think the truth about this Ravens team lies somewhere in between their first two weeks. And you know what? To me that puts the line in this game, on the road, right around 4. The Rams really haven't done anything egregious enough to make them much of a home dog against a 1-1 team. They lost to one of the NFL's most talented teams in the Eagles week 1. They followed that up with a performance in New York during primetime that was a true mixed bag - they showed some complex blitz packages, drove the ball with relative ease and yet continuously shot themselves in the foot. How much do you want the Rams to get here? 7? They have hardly done enough wrong to deserve that. I wouldn't have been surprised to see something like 4.5...but I would've had slight interest in the Rams there. At 7 I'd be all over them. At 3, it's yet another boring recommendation of passing onto the next.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bucs -2.5
O/U 45.5
Here we have a good matchup that should be fairly close. Both games between these two came down to the wire last year. Matty Ice and co. managed to sweep the series, but it's hard to look at the stats and feel that either team dominated by any stretch. In fact, the Bucs seemed to have their home game wrapped up before 4th quarter/late game heroics by Ice.
I know no one wants to like this Bucs team and to an extent you can count me in on that float. With that said, is there that much wrong with losing to the Lions in a one score game (though only due to a late TD) and then beating Minnesota on the road?
On the other hand the Falcons were trounced by a Bears team that came back and was uncompetitive against the Saints and were fortunate winners in a shootout against the Eagles. Not exactly enough evidence to send them to the electric chair but also nothing that gets my juices flowing about winning a road game against a decent divisional opponent.
If we like the Bucs, what are we relying on? Well, one of the issues is that Matt Ryan is pretty good at taking what you give him. Tampa will play bend don't break defense and Ryan will likely get his yards. The big key will be whether they can keep him, White, Gonzo and Turner out of the endzone. If they can, then you have to like the Bucs chances on offense of putting up some points. Let's face it, Atlanta's defense has been downright atrocious so far this year and I don't really see any reason for Tampa to buck that trend. In fact, this game looks prime for Freeman to get this Tampa offense untracked. Blount had a much better week 2 than week 1 and Mike Williams looks more and more like a powder keg ready to explode by the day. Throw in the development of Arrelious Benn and I just don't quite get why Tampa's offense isn't clicking a bit better so far.
This one deserves more thought, but the idea of laying less than a FG at home is quite appealing to me here. The difference between these two teams last year very well may have been greater and by all means the Bucs should've beaten them during their home game. Unless you really are wearing the Lil' John stunner shades and think that this Atlanta team is much better than their two recent efforts suggest, don't you have to like Tampa here?
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals -3.5
O/U 43
As much as I do consider myself resident Cardinals hater from day 1....and as much as I do think Seattle's homefield is still a major advantage, how on Earth do you back Seattle right now? They are purely pathetic. I feel like I've been talking about what a joke it is for Tavaris Jackson to be a starting QB for like 10 years now. Seriously folks, this guy couldn't complete over 50% of his passes against Alcorn St., Southern & co. He's not good. This isn't college, you can't just have enough speed to scramble every play and be effective as a QB. You actually have to be able to dissect defense and make big throws. At running back Marshawn Lynch isn't much different. No points are awarded for broken tackles. There are no extra yards walked off for breaking four tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The fact is, Marshawn Lynch is the nastiest player of Queer in the NFL currently and it's probably not close. He's also one of the absolutely least effective running backs in it.
But much like how I simply refuse to back the Raiders, I cannot back the Cardinals. Especially on the road in a tough atmosphere. I still have seen nothing out of Kevin Kolb that makes me afraid of fading this team. If you put a gun to my head I'd probably take Seattle for these reasons. But since I don't currently see any steel pointed in my direction I think I'll do the wise thing here and just move on.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -3.5
O/U 46
So clearly every road team in the NFL is a 3.5 point favorite, particularly all of those playing at 4. You have to think some win, some lose...figuring out which are which is a substantially harder task though. To me what we see here is a bit tricky. On the one hand the Packers are clearly a public favorite. After all, who doesn't feel good about backing Aaron Rodgers? On the other hand, is it somehow sharp to not like Aaron Rodgers? Let's face it, even the staunchest of Bears fans can easily see him Drew Brees-ing that defense apart. And while the Packers defense has been highly scrutinized, highly vulnerable and highly ineffective - we all pretty much know it's better than what it has showed so far right? What better opportunity to break out in a big way than against a shaky o-line, a QB that holds the ball far too long and a receiving corps that is pretty lifeless other than the running back.
To me, anyone thinking of backing the Bears here is being a bit cute. I understand that these games tend to be low-scoring slugfests. I am well aware of all the success that the Bears defense has seemingly had in slowing down Rodgers. But I also don't see a whole lot of reasons that Rodgers can't rip them to bits this weekend. And again, if you think, like me, that the Packers defense has every right to get it going this weekend, then 3.5 really doesn't look like the worst price to pay to get to back Rodgers. Usually when I see 3.5 I look for reasons to like the dog. It's nice to be able to trail by 10 points and still have the backdoor open. Especially against a defense that has been giving up as many points as Green Bay's has. But again, the Bears offered little resistance against the Saints last week and even at home I think they are facing a taller task here.
With all that said the Packers are now without Nick Collins. Chuck Woodson and Clay Matthews did not practice last I checked. Chad Clifton, Tramon Williams and Ryan Pickett were all limited. Not sure yet of the official status of these players but it is a major concern, especially against a physical team like the Bears.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Sunday's 1 O'Clock Card
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Fransisco 49ers
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.
Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.
Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.
Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.
Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.
Monday, September 19, 2011
How Did We Do? Week 2
3-1 with a bonus Saturday college football winner.
6-4-1 +1.8 units
Bills kicked off the week with a loss which is never fun. Playing from the front is so much more stress-free. And in hindsight, there were probably too many question marks surrounding this game to have laid more than a FG. Basically got what we deserved. I am quite surprised at how well Oakland came out the gates as usually West Coast teams comes out flat. Overall, I think it was a bit of a forced-fade of the Raiders. I will continue to look for spots to fade them, unfortunately this was not the right spot.
The Texans again were pretty impressive and really dominated the Dolphins more than the score even indicates. Strangely, they had some major red zone issues and settled for FG's which kept Miami within striking distance. Ultimately, they proved to be much the best and I saw nothing that would dispute my thought that Houston is a team capable of doing major damage this year. Miami on the other hand is a true mixed bag. Dan Thomas, to my surprise, looked very impressive. Marshall is a freak, Bush is explosive and Henne, well, Henne is still inconsistent. Overall, pretty happy with this play.
The Bengals game played out a bit as expected. This team is not nearly as bad as a lot of people still think. Dalton actually played even better than I expected but clearly the real story here was AJ Green being a hero. No surprise here, you already know how I feel about Green. Benson continues to be effective running the ball. The line is decent and the receiving options are solid. Defensively they're not great but they're pretty average. Won't exactly shut anyone down but decent enough to keep you in a game. My type of pick, took some fortune to get it home, but when you take the points sometimes you deserve it.
As for the Giants last night. That's about as fortunate as you can feel after a game. If I had the Rams I'd be sick to my stomach. I'll credit myself for expecting a young team without that much talent playing across the country in a primetime game to make some mistakes. But last night every ball seemed to bounce the Giants way. And despite the fact that Aaron Ross couldn't cover my ex-girlfriend, we somehow managed to not let them go through the backdoor time and again. I feel I have a great read on both teams now. Will look to use that moving forward.
Major regret of the weekend is not betting the Titans. On Sunday morning I really started to like them. They're the type of play that makes you money in the NFL. Home dog, average team with some playmakers, against a team that is overhyped. Whenever you see the type of lopsided result like Baltimore killing Pittsburgh in week 1 you know it probably had to do with some type of snowball effect. For that reason they were installed as way too heavy of favorites on the road and I should've known better.
6-4-1 +1.8 units
Bills kicked off the week with a loss which is never fun. Playing from the front is so much more stress-free. And in hindsight, there were probably too many question marks surrounding this game to have laid more than a FG. Basically got what we deserved. I am quite surprised at how well Oakland came out the gates as usually West Coast teams comes out flat. Overall, I think it was a bit of a forced-fade of the Raiders. I will continue to look for spots to fade them, unfortunately this was not the right spot.
The Texans again were pretty impressive and really dominated the Dolphins more than the score even indicates. Strangely, they had some major red zone issues and settled for FG's which kept Miami within striking distance. Ultimately, they proved to be much the best and I saw nothing that would dispute my thought that Houston is a team capable of doing major damage this year. Miami on the other hand is a true mixed bag. Dan Thomas, to my surprise, looked very impressive. Marshall is a freak, Bush is explosive and Henne, well, Henne is still inconsistent. Overall, pretty happy with this play.
The Bengals game played out a bit as expected. This team is not nearly as bad as a lot of people still think. Dalton actually played even better than I expected but clearly the real story here was AJ Green being a hero. No surprise here, you already know how I feel about Green. Benson continues to be effective running the ball. The line is decent and the receiving options are solid. Defensively they're not great but they're pretty average. Won't exactly shut anyone down but decent enough to keep you in a game. My type of pick, took some fortune to get it home, but when you take the points sometimes you deserve it.
As for the Giants last night. That's about as fortunate as you can feel after a game. If I had the Rams I'd be sick to my stomach. I'll credit myself for expecting a young team without that much talent playing across the country in a primetime game to make some mistakes. But last night every ball seemed to bounce the Giants way. And despite the fact that Aaron Ross couldn't cover my ex-girlfriend, we somehow managed to not let them go through the backdoor time and again. I feel I have a great read on both teams now. Will look to use that moving forward.
Major regret of the weekend is not betting the Titans. On Sunday morning I really started to like them. They're the type of play that makes you money in the NFL. Home dog, average team with some playmakers, against a team that is overhyped. Whenever you see the type of lopsided result like Baltimore killing Pittsburgh in week 1 you know it probably had to do with some type of snowball effect. For that reason they were installed as way too heavy of favorites on the road and I should've known better.
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