Sunday's 1 O'Clock Card

Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Fransisco 49ers
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.

Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.

Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.

Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.

Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.


Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.