Bengals -2.5
Really a situational play and a fade of the 49ers here. 1 o'clock east coast game for a bit of a soft team. Very nervous that Vernon Davis is sitting on a big one...Gore should get it going a bit more today...and if Crabtree is actually healthy he'll help. Still, it's Alex Smith on the road.
Bills +7
The more you look at it the more you see a banged up team on the road in what will be a very hostile atmosphere. I know everyone wants to give them a pass because it's Brady and it's the Pats, but losing your center and your most unguardable weapon hurts anyone. They'll still score it but that is a lot of road chalk to swallow.
Eagles -9
The Giants simply cannot cover the Eagles. The power running game that everyone is claiming they have doesn't really quite exist. The only reason, in my opinion, that they even have a shot to cover this game is because it looks like the game might be played on a bog. Still, Eagles have a chance of winning by 20+ here easily.
Dolphins +2
The Browns simply aren't that good and while maybe I am literally a fish for backing the Dolphins on the road, I simply can't help myself here. I just love a team like the fins that are all dirtied up. Much better than their record indicates and hopefully the turmoil between the front office, coaching staff and quarterback doesn't spill over here. Which is why a road game might help.
Jets -3
The more I've thought about this I think there is literally only one concern here - can the Jets show up to play on the West Coast? If they do I could see this thing getting out of hand. The Jets defense does the one thing that Oakland's offense is completely reliant on - stopping the running back. Their athletic wideouts proved too much for the Bills corners, but the heave it deep and let them go up and grab it method simply doesn't work against the Jets d-backs. Offensively, Sanchez will have to play a solid game but he is more than capable. If the offensive line steps up its play a notch they have a chance of turning this one ugly.
Packers -4
I just see this game as almost a carbon copy of last week when Chicago faced New Orleans. It's not that Chicago is a bad team, they just really struggle to keep up with the firepower of some of these teams. I'm seeing a Packers defense that wants to make a statement today. I know it's square and I know it's road chalk in a rivalry game that usually turns into a low-scoring slugfest, but I just think the Packers have the ability to put this one out of reach early.
***Adding***Houston +3.5
Bottom line here is that while I will regret not heeding my own advice here if they don't cover I'm just seeing value here. It seems like anyone you talk to is scared to death of Brees. I am to a degree but the value bettor in me just can't look at this game and not like it. What they are saying here is that the Saints are a tick better than the Texans. Really, I think the Texans are a better team than New Orleans, flat out. If they were home I'd line it -5.5. To be 3 point dogs would really make it a game I should play, at more than three I feel they are forcing my hand.
Not sure I will have time for explanation.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
Cowherd's Blazing 5
The are Colin Cowherd's five picks for this weekend:
Raiders +3.5
Fins +2.5
Tennessee -7
Zona St.-2.5
Notre Dame -7
Leans Bills
He's 10-2 so far on the year apparently. I think he's a complete hack. Not recommending a fade or a tail here, just found it interesting enough to post.
Raiders +3.5
Fins +2.5
Tennessee -7
Zona St.-2.5
Notre Dame -7
Leans Bills
He's 10-2 so far on the year apparently. I think he's a complete hack. Not recommending a fade or a tail here, just found it interesting enough to post.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Sunday's 4 O'Clock Card
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego -14.5
O/U 44.5
We all know about the issues with Kansas City at this point. The line here says it all to me. If you thought that maybe KC was going to be competitive here - don't. Charging you 14 and still feeling the need to hook you means this one is going to get out of hand in all likelihood, but to bet on that you're going to have to lay heavy lumber and always run the risk of leaving the backdoor open.
Overall, I don't see anything much worth noting here, to me it's like cleavage on a heavy set girl - you take a glance and move on...
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets
Jets -3.5
O/U 41
I'm having a real hard time figuring out the Jets. Admittedly, I was sipping the kool-aid far too heavy in week 1 when laying far too many against a talented Dallas team. Not only was I on the wrong side, but it just felt like the Jets looked average. Sanchez didn't look special at QB. The offensive line was surprisingly overwhelmed by the Dallas front-seven. The defense shut down the run but offered very little by way of pass rush and even the secondary seemed vulnerable. While I didn't catch any of week 2, the fact that they couldn't get Shonne Green going on the ground against Jacksonville was alarming to say the least. The Jets are a solid team no doubt. You know my opinion of the Raiders. If this game were on the East Coast I'd have no problem laying 3 and would consider 3.5, but in Oakland? Not only does it seem square, but it just doesn't seem all that smart. Oakland came to the East Coast and was game as you like in Buffalo....to expect the Jets to go out and beat them by double-digits here just doesn't feel sharp.
In terms of backing Oakland I have little to say other than I would never do it. I don't like this team at all and I'm still probably going to look for a spot to fade them. Just because you think a team is a fade you don't have to fade them week-in, week-out. And just because they're playing a good team at a reasonable spread doesn't mean you are obliged to take your stand there, not when the situation is as sketchy as this one.
Bottom line is this - I think Dallas has a better front-seven than Oakland, but I'm not so sure the Oakland front-seven in Oakland can't be just as effective as the Dallas front-seven managed to be in New York. Make sense? While Sanchez has the receiving weapons to exploit the Oakland secondary, it is unclear if he has either the running game or the offensive line to do so.
Stay away at all costs in my opinion.
St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -3.5
O/U 42.5
If Baltimore doesn't feel square to you I don't know what to say. Everyone and their brother was looking for their line thinking to maybe catch some bounceback value after seemingly everyone in the entire public took a bath on them last week. While I refuse to believe that their blowout win over Pittsburgh was anything more than snowballing at its finest, I also refuse to believe that Baltimore is as bad as they showed last week...and hell, I liked the Titans there.
I think the truth about this Ravens team lies somewhere in between their first two weeks. And you know what? To me that puts the line in this game, on the road, right around 4. The Rams really haven't done anything egregious enough to make them much of a home dog against a 1-1 team. They lost to one of the NFL's most talented teams in the Eagles week 1. They followed that up with a performance in New York during primetime that was a true mixed bag - they showed some complex blitz packages, drove the ball with relative ease and yet continuously shot themselves in the foot. How much do you want the Rams to get here? 7? They have hardly done enough wrong to deserve that. I wouldn't have been surprised to see something like 4.5...but I would've had slight interest in the Rams there. At 7 I'd be all over them. At 3, it's yet another boring recommendation of passing onto the next.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bucs -2.5
O/U 45.5
Here we have a good matchup that should be fairly close. Both games between these two came down to the wire last year. Matty Ice and co. managed to sweep the series, but it's hard to look at the stats and feel that either team dominated by any stretch. In fact, the Bucs seemed to have their home game wrapped up before 4th quarter/late game heroics by Ice.
I know no one wants to like this Bucs team and to an extent you can count me in on that float. With that said, is there that much wrong with losing to the Lions in a one score game (though only due to a late TD) and then beating Minnesota on the road?
On the other hand the Falcons were trounced by a Bears team that came back and was uncompetitive against the Saints and were fortunate winners in a shootout against the Eagles. Not exactly enough evidence to send them to the electric chair but also nothing that gets my juices flowing about winning a road game against a decent divisional opponent.
If we like the Bucs, what are we relying on? Well, one of the issues is that Matt Ryan is pretty good at taking what you give him. Tampa will play bend don't break defense and Ryan will likely get his yards. The big key will be whether they can keep him, White, Gonzo and Turner out of the endzone. If they can, then you have to like the Bucs chances on offense of putting up some points. Let's face it, Atlanta's defense has been downright atrocious so far this year and I don't really see any reason for Tampa to buck that trend. In fact, this game looks prime for Freeman to get this Tampa offense untracked. Blount had a much better week 2 than week 1 and Mike Williams looks more and more like a powder keg ready to explode by the day. Throw in the development of Arrelious Benn and I just don't quite get why Tampa's offense isn't clicking a bit better so far.
This one deserves more thought, but the idea of laying less than a FG at home is quite appealing to me here. The difference between these two teams last year very well may have been greater and by all means the Bucs should've beaten them during their home game. Unless you really are wearing the Lil' John stunner shades and think that this Atlanta team is much better than their two recent efforts suggest, don't you have to like Tampa here?
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals -3.5
O/U 43
As much as I do consider myself resident Cardinals hater from day 1....and as much as I do think Seattle's homefield is still a major advantage, how on Earth do you back Seattle right now? They are purely pathetic. I feel like I've been talking about what a joke it is for Tavaris Jackson to be a starting QB for like 10 years now. Seriously folks, this guy couldn't complete over 50% of his passes against Alcorn St., Southern & co. He's not good. This isn't college, you can't just have enough speed to scramble every play and be effective as a QB. You actually have to be able to dissect defense and make big throws. At running back Marshawn Lynch isn't much different. No points are awarded for broken tackles. There are no extra yards walked off for breaking four tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The fact is, Marshawn Lynch is the nastiest player of Queer in the NFL currently and it's probably not close. He's also one of the absolutely least effective running backs in it.
But much like how I simply refuse to back the Raiders, I cannot back the Cardinals. Especially on the road in a tough atmosphere. I still have seen nothing out of Kevin Kolb that makes me afraid of fading this team. If you put a gun to my head I'd probably take Seattle for these reasons. But since I don't currently see any steel pointed in my direction I think I'll do the wise thing here and just move on.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -3.5
O/U 46
So clearly every road team in the NFL is a 3.5 point favorite, particularly all of those playing at 4. You have to think some win, some lose...figuring out which are which is a substantially harder task though. To me what we see here is a bit tricky. On the one hand the Packers are clearly a public favorite. After all, who doesn't feel good about backing Aaron Rodgers? On the other hand, is it somehow sharp to not like Aaron Rodgers? Let's face it, even the staunchest of Bears fans can easily see him Drew Brees-ing that defense apart. And while the Packers defense has been highly scrutinized, highly vulnerable and highly ineffective - we all pretty much know it's better than what it has showed so far right? What better opportunity to break out in a big way than against a shaky o-line, a QB that holds the ball far too long and a receiving corps that is pretty lifeless other than the running back.
To me, anyone thinking of backing the Bears here is being a bit cute. I understand that these games tend to be low-scoring slugfests. I am well aware of all the success that the Bears defense has seemingly had in slowing down Rodgers. But I also don't see a whole lot of reasons that Rodgers can't rip them to bits this weekend. And again, if you think, like me, that the Packers defense has every right to get it going this weekend, then 3.5 really doesn't look like the worst price to pay to get to back Rodgers. Usually when I see 3.5 I look for reasons to like the dog. It's nice to be able to trail by 10 points and still have the backdoor open. Especially against a defense that has been giving up as many points as Green Bay's has. But again, the Bears offered little resistance against the Saints last week and even at home I think they are facing a taller task here.
With all that said the Packers are now without Nick Collins. Chuck Woodson and Clay Matthews did not practice last I checked. Chad Clifton, Tramon Williams and Ryan Pickett were all limited. Not sure yet of the official status of these players but it is a major concern, especially against a physical team like the Bears.
San Diego -14.5
O/U 44.5
We all know about the issues with Kansas City at this point. The line here says it all to me. If you thought that maybe KC was going to be competitive here - don't. Charging you 14 and still feeling the need to hook you means this one is going to get out of hand in all likelihood, but to bet on that you're going to have to lay heavy lumber and always run the risk of leaving the backdoor open.
Overall, I don't see anything much worth noting here, to me it's like cleavage on a heavy set girl - you take a glance and move on...
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets
Jets -3.5
O/U 41
I'm having a real hard time figuring out the Jets. Admittedly, I was sipping the kool-aid far too heavy in week 1 when laying far too many against a talented Dallas team. Not only was I on the wrong side, but it just felt like the Jets looked average. Sanchez didn't look special at QB. The offensive line was surprisingly overwhelmed by the Dallas front-seven. The defense shut down the run but offered very little by way of pass rush and even the secondary seemed vulnerable. While I didn't catch any of week 2, the fact that they couldn't get Shonne Green going on the ground against Jacksonville was alarming to say the least. The Jets are a solid team no doubt. You know my opinion of the Raiders. If this game were on the East Coast I'd have no problem laying 3 and would consider 3.5, but in Oakland? Not only does it seem square, but it just doesn't seem all that smart. Oakland came to the East Coast and was game as you like in Buffalo....to expect the Jets to go out and beat them by double-digits here just doesn't feel sharp.
In terms of backing Oakland I have little to say other than I would never do it. I don't like this team at all and I'm still probably going to look for a spot to fade them. Just because you think a team is a fade you don't have to fade them week-in, week-out. And just because they're playing a good team at a reasonable spread doesn't mean you are obliged to take your stand there, not when the situation is as sketchy as this one.
Bottom line is this - I think Dallas has a better front-seven than Oakland, but I'm not so sure the Oakland front-seven in Oakland can't be just as effective as the Dallas front-seven managed to be in New York. Make sense? While Sanchez has the receiving weapons to exploit the Oakland secondary, it is unclear if he has either the running game or the offensive line to do so.
Stay away at all costs in my opinion.
St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -3.5
O/U 42.5
If Baltimore doesn't feel square to you I don't know what to say. Everyone and their brother was looking for their line thinking to maybe catch some bounceback value after seemingly everyone in the entire public took a bath on them last week. While I refuse to believe that their blowout win over Pittsburgh was anything more than snowballing at its finest, I also refuse to believe that Baltimore is as bad as they showed last week...and hell, I liked the Titans there.
I think the truth about this Ravens team lies somewhere in between their first two weeks. And you know what? To me that puts the line in this game, on the road, right around 4. The Rams really haven't done anything egregious enough to make them much of a home dog against a 1-1 team. They lost to one of the NFL's most talented teams in the Eagles week 1. They followed that up with a performance in New York during primetime that was a true mixed bag - they showed some complex blitz packages, drove the ball with relative ease and yet continuously shot themselves in the foot. How much do you want the Rams to get here? 7? They have hardly done enough wrong to deserve that. I wouldn't have been surprised to see something like 4.5...but I would've had slight interest in the Rams there. At 7 I'd be all over them. At 3, it's yet another boring recommendation of passing onto the next.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bucs -2.5
O/U 45.5
Here we have a good matchup that should be fairly close. Both games between these two came down to the wire last year. Matty Ice and co. managed to sweep the series, but it's hard to look at the stats and feel that either team dominated by any stretch. In fact, the Bucs seemed to have their home game wrapped up before 4th quarter/late game heroics by Ice.
I know no one wants to like this Bucs team and to an extent you can count me in on that float. With that said, is there that much wrong with losing to the Lions in a one score game (though only due to a late TD) and then beating Minnesota on the road?
On the other hand the Falcons were trounced by a Bears team that came back and was uncompetitive against the Saints and were fortunate winners in a shootout against the Eagles. Not exactly enough evidence to send them to the electric chair but also nothing that gets my juices flowing about winning a road game against a decent divisional opponent.
If we like the Bucs, what are we relying on? Well, one of the issues is that Matt Ryan is pretty good at taking what you give him. Tampa will play bend don't break defense and Ryan will likely get his yards. The big key will be whether they can keep him, White, Gonzo and Turner out of the endzone. If they can, then you have to like the Bucs chances on offense of putting up some points. Let's face it, Atlanta's defense has been downright atrocious so far this year and I don't really see any reason for Tampa to buck that trend. In fact, this game looks prime for Freeman to get this Tampa offense untracked. Blount had a much better week 2 than week 1 and Mike Williams looks more and more like a powder keg ready to explode by the day. Throw in the development of Arrelious Benn and I just don't quite get why Tampa's offense isn't clicking a bit better so far.
This one deserves more thought, but the idea of laying less than a FG at home is quite appealing to me here. The difference between these two teams last year very well may have been greater and by all means the Bucs should've beaten them during their home game. Unless you really are wearing the Lil' John stunner shades and think that this Atlanta team is much better than their two recent efforts suggest, don't you have to like Tampa here?
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals -3.5
O/U 43
As much as I do consider myself resident Cardinals hater from day 1....and as much as I do think Seattle's homefield is still a major advantage, how on Earth do you back Seattle right now? They are purely pathetic. I feel like I've been talking about what a joke it is for Tavaris Jackson to be a starting QB for like 10 years now. Seriously folks, this guy couldn't complete over 50% of his passes against Alcorn St., Southern & co. He's not good. This isn't college, you can't just have enough speed to scramble every play and be effective as a QB. You actually have to be able to dissect defense and make big throws. At running back Marshawn Lynch isn't much different. No points are awarded for broken tackles. There are no extra yards walked off for breaking four tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The fact is, Marshawn Lynch is the nastiest player of Queer in the NFL currently and it's probably not close. He's also one of the absolutely least effective running backs in it.
But much like how I simply refuse to back the Raiders, I cannot back the Cardinals. Especially on the road in a tough atmosphere. I still have seen nothing out of Kevin Kolb that makes me afraid of fading this team. If you put a gun to my head I'd probably take Seattle for these reasons. But since I don't currently see any steel pointed in my direction I think I'll do the wise thing here and just move on.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -3.5
O/U 46
So clearly every road team in the NFL is a 3.5 point favorite, particularly all of those playing at 4. You have to think some win, some lose...figuring out which are which is a substantially harder task though. To me what we see here is a bit tricky. On the one hand the Packers are clearly a public favorite. After all, who doesn't feel good about backing Aaron Rodgers? On the other hand, is it somehow sharp to not like Aaron Rodgers? Let's face it, even the staunchest of Bears fans can easily see him Drew Brees-ing that defense apart. And while the Packers defense has been highly scrutinized, highly vulnerable and highly ineffective - we all pretty much know it's better than what it has showed so far right? What better opportunity to break out in a big way than against a shaky o-line, a QB that holds the ball far too long and a receiving corps that is pretty lifeless other than the running back.
To me, anyone thinking of backing the Bears here is being a bit cute. I understand that these games tend to be low-scoring slugfests. I am well aware of all the success that the Bears defense has seemingly had in slowing down Rodgers. But I also don't see a whole lot of reasons that Rodgers can't rip them to bits this weekend. And again, if you think, like me, that the Packers defense has every right to get it going this weekend, then 3.5 really doesn't look like the worst price to pay to get to back Rodgers. Usually when I see 3.5 I look for reasons to like the dog. It's nice to be able to trail by 10 points and still have the backdoor open. Especially against a defense that has been giving up as many points as Green Bay's has. But again, the Bears offered little resistance against the Saints last week and even at home I think they are facing a taller task here.
With all that said the Packers are now without Nick Collins. Chuck Woodson and Clay Matthews did not practice last I checked. Chad Clifton, Tramon Williams and Ryan Pickett were all limited. Not sure yet of the official status of these players but it is a major concern, especially against a physical team like the Bears.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Sunday's 1 O'Clock Card
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Fransisco 49ers
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.
Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.
Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.
Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.
Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.
Monday, September 19, 2011
How Did We Do? Week 2
3-1 with a bonus Saturday college football winner.
6-4-1 +1.8 units
Bills kicked off the week with a loss which is never fun. Playing from the front is so much more stress-free. And in hindsight, there were probably too many question marks surrounding this game to have laid more than a FG. Basically got what we deserved. I am quite surprised at how well Oakland came out the gates as usually West Coast teams comes out flat. Overall, I think it was a bit of a forced-fade of the Raiders. I will continue to look for spots to fade them, unfortunately this was not the right spot.
The Texans again were pretty impressive and really dominated the Dolphins more than the score even indicates. Strangely, they had some major red zone issues and settled for FG's which kept Miami within striking distance. Ultimately, they proved to be much the best and I saw nothing that would dispute my thought that Houston is a team capable of doing major damage this year. Miami on the other hand is a true mixed bag. Dan Thomas, to my surprise, looked very impressive. Marshall is a freak, Bush is explosive and Henne, well, Henne is still inconsistent. Overall, pretty happy with this play.
The Bengals game played out a bit as expected. This team is not nearly as bad as a lot of people still think. Dalton actually played even better than I expected but clearly the real story here was AJ Green being a hero. No surprise here, you already know how I feel about Green. Benson continues to be effective running the ball. The line is decent and the receiving options are solid. Defensively they're not great but they're pretty average. Won't exactly shut anyone down but decent enough to keep you in a game. My type of pick, took some fortune to get it home, but when you take the points sometimes you deserve it.
As for the Giants last night. That's about as fortunate as you can feel after a game. If I had the Rams I'd be sick to my stomach. I'll credit myself for expecting a young team without that much talent playing across the country in a primetime game to make some mistakes. But last night every ball seemed to bounce the Giants way. And despite the fact that Aaron Ross couldn't cover my ex-girlfriend, we somehow managed to not let them go through the backdoor time and again. I feel I have a great read on both teams now. Will look to use that moving forward.
Major regret of the weekend is not betting the Titans. On Sunday morning I really started to like them. They're the type of play that makes you money in the NFL. Home dog, average team with some playmakers, against a team that is overhyped. Whenever you see the type of lopsided result like Baltimore killing Pittsburgh in week 1 you know it probably had to do with some type of snowball effect. For that reason they were installed as way too heavy of favorites on the road and I should've known better.
6-4-1 +1.8 units
Bills kicked off the week with a loss which is never fun. Playing from the front is so much more stress-free. And in hindsight, there were probably too many question marks surrounding this game to have laid more than a FG. Basically got what we deserved. I am quite surprised at how well Oakland came out the gates as usually West Coast teams comes out flat. Overall, I think it was a bit of a forced-fade of the Raiders. I will continue to look for spots to fade them, unfortunately this was not the right spot.
The Texans again were pretty impressive and really dominated the Dolphins more than the score even indicates. Strangely, they had some major red zone issues and settled for FG's which kept Miami within striking distance. Ultimately, they proved to be much the best and I saw nothing that would dispute my thought that Houston is a team capable of doing major damage this year. Miami on the other hand is a true mixed bag. Dan Thomas, to my surprise, looked very impressive. Marshall is a freak, Bush is explosive and Henne, well, Henne is still inconsistent. Overall, pretty happy with this play.
The Bengals game played out a bit as expected. This team is not nearly as bad as a lot of people still think. Dalton actually played even better than I expected but clearly the real story here was AJ Green being a hero. No surprise here, you already know how I feel about Green. Benson continues to be effective running the ball. The line is decent and the receiving options are solid. Defensively they're not great but they're pretty average. Won't exactly shut anyone down but decent enough to keep you in a game. My type of pick, took some fortune to get it home, but when you take the points sometimes you deserve it.
As for the Giants last night. That's about as fortunate as you can feel after a game. If I had the Rams I'd be sick to my stomach. I'll credit myself for expecting a young team without that much talent playing across the country in a primetime game to make some mistakes. But last night every ball seemed to bounce the Giants way. And despite the fact that Aaron Ross couldn't cover my ex-girlfriend, we somehow managed to not let them go through the backdoor time and again. I feel I have a great read on both teams now. Will look to use that moving forward.
Major regret of the weekend is not betting the Titans. On Sunday morning I really started to like them. They're the type of play that makes you money in the NFL. Home dog, average team with some playmakers, against a team that is overhyped. Whenever you see the type of lopsided result like Baltimore killing Pittsburgh in week 1 you know it probably had to do with some type of snowball effect. For that reason they were installed as way too heavy of favorites on the road and I should've known better.
Monday Night Preview
New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams
Giants -7
O/U 44
Well first thing is first - it appears that Tuck and Nicks will suit up. How effective they can be is anyone's guess, but it's a good thing regardless.
Offensively, the Giants are being a touch underrated coming into tonight I feel. The Redskins defense isn't all that bad and they offense had a plethora of chances to bust the game open last week, only for bad drops, blown blocks, bad playcalling and penalties to stall them out. You cannot give them a complete pass for those mental lapses, but you have to consider that week 1 rust is going to be there and if they tighten up some nuts and bolts they should be poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. The thing that will determine whether or not they do that tonight is how the offensive line plays. Last week they did not give Eli Manning nearly enough time to set up and pick apart the secondary. One thing that should help tonight is the Rams run defense. While many of the 236 yards they allowed to the Eagles last week on the ground were of the Mike Vick scramble variety, McCoy still averaged 8.1 a clip himself and the holes were gigantic. The Giants offensive line is still mighty capable of opening up big holes for the ground game and that will only help them is pass protection this week.
The Rams will be without a guy who hasn't just been the centerpiece of their offense, he has been their offense over the past several years. Steven Jackson is out and the Cadillac is in. While man are starting to re-sip the Caddy Kool-Aid after gaining 91 yards last week, I simply can't buy it. Anyone who watched the Eagles run defense last night knows that they can't stop anyone on the ground. The Giants on the other hand have been extremely stout against the run for years and with Justin Tuck suiting back up tonight that run defense is only going to get better. That will leave it all on Sam Bradford's shoulders. While I don't want to make too much of a bruised index finger, you just never know how much that can end up playing a roll. Do you really want the talent-lacking, young team coming over from St. Louis to the East Coast to play in primetime without their star offensive player and their QB with a finger injury? For all these reasons I think the game shapes up as "Giants or nothing."
If you really explore these two teams depth charts you'd be shocked to see how big the contrast in talent is. Say what you want about how bad the Giants secondary played last week. On paper Webster, Ross, Philips and Rolle isn't half bad. The Rams wheel out Bradley Fletcher, Justin King, Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl. Did I mention that Al Harris is listed as their nickel back? Seriously, I know Mikell was a big signing, but this is not good. Particularly former Giant practice squader Craig Dahl. Even if Nicks is 75%, the Giants receivers will use and abuse this group and Eli will pick them apart, again, assuming the line can block.
The Rams front-seven has some decent players with Chris Long, Fred Robbins and James Laurinaitis. That's cute and all but it's not scaring anyone.
Official Play: Giants -7
Giants -7
O/U 44
Well first thing is first - it appears that Tuck and Nicks will suit up. How effective they can be is anyone's guess, but it's a good thing regardless.
Offensively, the Giants are being a touch underrated coming into tonight I feel. The Redskins defense isn't all that bad and they offense had a plethora of chances to bust the game open last week, only for bad drops, blown blocks, bad playcalling and penalties to stall them out. You cannot give them a complete pass for those mental lapses, but you have to consider that week 1 rust is going to be there and if they tighten up some nuts and bolts they should be poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. The thing that will determine whether or not they do that tonight is how the offensive line plays. Last week they did not give Eli Manning nearly enough time to set up and pick apart the secondary. One thing that should help tonight is the Rams run defense. While many of the 236 yards they allowed to the Eagles last week on the ground were of the Mike Vick scramble variety, McCoy still averaged 8.1 a clip himself and the holes were gigantic. The Giants offensive line is still mighty capable of opening up big holes for the ground game and that will only help them is pass protection this week.
The Rams will be without a guy who hasn't just been the centerpiece of their offense, he has been their offense over the past several years. Steven Jackson is out and the Cadillac is in. While man are starting to re-sip the Caddy Kool-Aid after gaining 91 yards last week, I simply can't buy it. Anyone who watched the Eagles run defense last night knows that they can't stop anyone on the ground. The Giants on the other hand have been extremely stout against the run for years and with Justin Tuck suiting back up tonight that run defense is only going to get better. That will leave it all on Sam Bradford's shoulders. While I don't want to make too much of a bruised index finger, you just never know how much that can end up playing a roll. Do you really want the talent-lacking, young team coming over from St. Louis to the East Coast to play in primetime without their star offensive player and their QB with a finger injury? For all these reasons I think the game shapes up as "Giants or nothing."
If you really explore these two teams depth charts you'd be shocked to see how big the contrast in talent is. Say what you want about how bad the Giants secondary played last week. On paper Webster, Ross, Philips and Rolle isn't half bad. The Rams wheel out Bradley Fletcher, Justin King, Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl. Did I mention that Al Harris is listed as their nickel back? Seriously, I know Mikell was a big signing, but this is not good. Particularly former Giant practice squader Craig Dahl. Even if Nicks is 75%, the Giants receivers will use and abuse this group and Eli will pick them apart, again, assuming the line can block.
The Rams front-seven has some decent players with Chris Long, Fred Robbins and James Laurinaitis. That's cute and all but it's not scaring anyone.
Official Play: Giants -7
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Rare College Football Play
University of Buffalo +4.5
Won't see many of these. My sources say UB by 7 tonight though.
Won't see many of these. My sources say UB by 7 tonight though.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Sunday's 4 O'Clock Card
San Fransisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -3
O/U 42.5
This line is giving me fits. It's not that I think the Cowboys shouldn't be -3 here. It is actually exactly what I would expect the line to be set it. The issue I'm having is that why not bump it as usual for Dallas? They could set it at -4 and not have to worry about getting action on Dallas I would think. It seems like they have absolutely no fear of you loading up on Dallas this week. Well, call me a fish because that's exactly what I want to do.
For one, the Cowboys came out and made the Jets defense look so marginal it was comical. The offensive line was not busy creating holes for Felix Jones but it was no matter as Tony Romo was busy charting a pass of Revis Island with unusual success, while making the rest of the secondary look in serious need of a Nnamdi. Clearly, the second half was a different story but a lot of that had to do with Dallas not being able to establish any type of running game. I've said it a million times already but it's extremely difficult to do so against the Jets defense and should not be counted as an indictment against Felix Jones. While San Fransisco's defense comes out of Sunday's game looking like roses, it came against one of the NFL's most lifeless offenses. Still, with Sopoaga clogging the middle and Smith and McDonald at the ends with Patrick Willis cleaning up the mess the Niners are going to be difficult to run on. They had better be able to bring a big pass rush however. As we saw with the Jets the Cowboys don't need to establish a running threat to rack up big chunks of yards through the air. I'm thinking Felix Jones will get untracked a bit and Dallas will again enjoy offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith threw for all of 124 yards against a Seahawks secondary that was historically bad last year. Frank Gore alarmingly didn't have it going much either so the excuses are fairly limited. I really feel Michael Crabtree needs to get healthy fast for this offense to open up because it is predicated around short, conservative timing patterns that expect the receivers to break off big YAC averages. If Smith is smart he will look early and often to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker - tight end Vernon Davis. The Cowboys really have no safeties of linebackers that are capable of covering him. If they are going to limit Davis it is going to be thanks to the front-seven harassing Smith. As we saw against the Jets last week, that is a very serious possibility.
Overall, anything over four would scare me off here I think, but at anything less than 3.5 it's going to be awfully hard for me to avoid. How am I not supposed to think that the Cowboys will win here? They have all the offensive weapons to score plenty on the road and their front-seven is more than capable of making Alex Smith's life a living hell Sunday. I'll take my chances on a FG, anything more and it becomes a substantially more difficult decision.
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Texans -3
O/U 48
Oh geeze, Vegas trying to get me to fall in love with the biggest sucker bet out, the 3 point road favorite. As you well know, I think very highly of this Texans team. Fortunately, I think I saw enough sneaky-goodness out of Miami to keep me away here.
Offensively, the Texans are dynamic. Last week however, the defense they were going against was Taylor-Made to trounce. Power running and explosive receiving options will give the Colts major problems. For the Dolphins it is a little bit less clear. Last week they simply ran into a buzz-saw in Tom Brady. That and the Vontae Davis injury led to the massacre of Nolan Carroll and things just ballooned out of control. This week they are a bit better equipped. Sean Smith is the best cornerback you've (maybe) never heard of. He'll have his hands full this week but should at least fare better with Andre than most do. They also might fool around and put others on Andre while doubling and have Smith shut down Jones or Water. The bottom line is that the Dolphins still have enough talent in the secondary to make things work and as good as Matt Schaub is, I doubt he has enough weapons, or the guile, to expose Nolan Carroll to that degree. The other obvious issue is cear when you think about how badly Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski scorched the Fins defense. Owen Daniels. He'll be a handful this weekend and Miami will be forced to pick their poison on doubling him or Johnson. My guess is that they'll try to slow down Johnson and it is very likely that Daniels will make them pay in a big way.
On offense, Chad Henne looked a lot better last week than he did at any point last year. He still has the arm to be effective and while I'm not sure I saw a ton of progressions or pocket poise, we still are unsure of how improved the Texans defense is. This will be an interesting test both for Henne and for the Texans defense on the road. Reggie Bush made a lot of nice plays last week but it sounds like Dan Thomas will actually see the field a bit more this week. I don't think that is a positive for Miami THIS week, though it probably is the right move long-term.
Overall I see this game as one between two teams that are currently back-able. The line seems about right. Add it all up and it looks like a stay-away. Hopefully the dynamics of the game will favor one team greatly and we can come back next week and back the other.
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Patriots -7
O/U 53.5
Wow at that over/under, is this the NFL or the MAC? Pretty odd to see a team go from being 7 point favorites against Adrian Peterson and co. to 7 point dogs the next week.
Say what you will about Donovan McNabb only throwing for 40 yards last weekend but can we really give no credit to San Diego's defense? Holding any QB getting a start for a NFL team to under 50 yards is impressive. Holding Tavaris Jackson or Brodie Croyle to 40 yards would be impressive. Holding Jimmy Clausen to 40 yards would be...eh, OK, so holding any QB other than Jimmy Clausen to that total would be impressive. But I digress - the point is that we are probably going to see something in-between what we saw last week. There is no chance San Diego is going to repeat the performance against Brady, but it is also unlikely that Brady will approach his performance from last week. The problem is, there is a lot of room for being wrong when trying to project in a range between 40 and 500 yards. The over/under being 53.5 probably gives us a hint there though....
Defensively, New England was borderline exposed by Henne last week. I think they match up better against the run with Matthews/Tolbert. Spikes and Mayo are ridiculously good tacklers and I think Bush's speed was the key to finding any type of production. San Diego's game is more power which plays right into New England's wheelhouse. Not exactly a death sentence for a team with Philip Rivers slinging the rock. If Chad Henne went for over 400 against this defense, it's hard not to project similar or better production from Rivers.
Overall my feeling is this - I want no part of laying 7 points to the Chargers. I want no part of figuring out the Chargers. And I want no part of betting against Brady at just about any point spread right now. The over/under of 53.5 makes what looks like an inflated line (7) a lot less significant. Expect these teams to be scoring touchdowns early and often. Gun to my head I'd take the points, but again, I really want no part of either side here.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Broncos -3.5
O/U 40
Denver really disappointed me Monday night. I felt that I had a strong cap on that game and I waked away feeling like they left a lot of opportunities on the table. At the same time, I think we saw a battle of two really weak teams. You could say a lot of the same things to summarize the Bengals game, with the major difference being that they actually took advantage and won. They won a game they weren't supposed to even be that competitive mind you, while the Broncos lost a game they were supposed to win.
Constantly, in the NFL, I think value comes in betting on the teams no one else wants to. Everyone feels more "safe" when they bet a team like the Pats or the Saints. Teams that will always be in a game, rarely blown out, always capable of mounting comebacks with their dynamic QB's. Unfortunately, Vegas makes you pay a price to back teams like that, while often you are better off picking out teams like these that are certain to be hanging out on the clearance rack all season. It just comes down to picking the right spots...because anytime you take an item off the clearance rack, you take a risk of being the joke of the party.
I say this because I find myself, inexplicably to most, attracted for the second straight week to the Cincinnati Bengals. Monitoring the injuries for the Broncos is of utmost importance here and for that reason I am not going to get too in-depth yet, if I decide it's a play I will.
The shortcut version is this - I think the Raiders are really bad. I think the Bengals are better than perception. As important as QB is, everyone is blinded by just thinking Andy Dalton is a rookie with a weak arm. They still have a decent offensive line, solid run game and a reasonable defense. Denver certainly has more big play threats and Orton is capable of throwing Dalton out of the stadium. But if that doesn't happen, the Bengals have a chance of stealing away here. And get the field goal PLUS the hook is the icing on the cake. At just 3 even it is probably a stay-away. At 3.5 it's awfully tempting. More to come here possibly....
Will also be adding what should be a very in-depth look at the Sunday night game tomorrow. Will hold off until Monday to give what should also be a very in-depth look at that game.
Cowboys -3
O/U 42.5
This line is giving me fits. It's not that I think the Cowboys shouldn't be -3 here. It is actually exactly what I would expect the line to be set it. The issue I'm having is that why not bump it as usual for Dallas? They could set it at -4 and not have to worry about getting action on Dallas I would think. It seems like they have absolutely no fear of you loading up on Dallas this week. Well, call me a fish because that's exactly what I want to do.
For one, the Cowboys came out and made the Jets defense look so marginal it was comical. The offensive line was not busy creating holes for Felix Jones but it was no matter as Tony Romo was busy charting a pass of Revis Island with unusual success, while making the rest of the secondary look in serious need of a Nnamdi. Clearly, the second half was a different story but a lot of that had to do with Dallas not being able to establish any type of running game. I've said it a million times already but it's extremely difficult to do so against the Jets defense and should not be counted as an indictment against Felix Jones. While San Fransisco's defense comes out of Sunday's game looking like roses, it came against one of the NFL's most lifeless offenses. Still, with Sopoaga clogging the middle and Smith and McDonald at the ends with Patrick Willis cleaning up the mess the Niners are going to be difficult to run on. They had better be able to bring a big pass rush however. As we saw with the Jets the Cowboys don't need to establish a running threat to rack up big chunks of yards through the air. I'm thinking Felix Jones will get untracked a bit and Dallas will again enjoy offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith threw for all of 124 yards against a Seahawks secondary that was historically bad last year. Frank Gore alarmingly didn't have it going much either so the excuses are fairly limited. I really feel Michael Crabtree needs to get healthy fast for this offense to open up because it is predicated around short, conservative timing patterns that expect the receivers to break off big YAC averages. If Smith is smart he will look early and often to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker - tight end Vernon Davis. The Cowboys really have no safeties of linebackers that are capable of covering him. If they are going to limit Davis it is going to be thanks to the front-seven harassing Smith. As we saw against the Jets last week, that is a very serious possibility.
Overall, anything over four would scare me off here I think, but at anything less than 3.5 it's going to be awfully hard for me to avoid. How am I not supposed to think that the Cowboys will win here? They have all the offensive weapons to score plenty on the road and their front-seven is more than capable of making Alex Smith's life a living hell Sunday. I'll take my chances on a FG, anything more and it becomes a substantially more difficult decision.
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Texans -3
O/U 48
Oh geeze, Vegas trying to get me to fall in love with the biggest sucker bet out, the 3 point road favorite. As you well know, I think very highly of this Texans team. Fortunately, I think I saw enough sneaky-goodness out of Miami to keep me away here.
Offensively, the Texans are dynamic. Last week however, the defense they were going against was Taylor-Made to trounce. Power running and explosive receiving options will give the Colts major problems. For the Dolphins it is a little bit less clear. Last week they simply ran into a buzz-saw in Tom Brady. That and the Vontae Davis injury led to the massacre of Nolan Carroll and things just ballooned out of control. This week they are a bit better equipped. Sean Smith is the best cornerback you've (maybe) never heard of. He'll have his hands full this week but should at least fare better with Andre than most do. They also might fool around and put others on Andre while doubling and have Smith shut down Jones or Water. The bottom line is that the Dolphins still have enough talent in the secondary to make things work and as good as Matt Schaub is, I doubt he has enough weapons, or the guile, to expose Nolan Carroll to that degree. The other obvious issue is cear when you think about how badly Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski scorched the Fins defense. Owen Daniels. He'll be a handful this weekend and Miami will be forced to pick their poison on doubling him or Johnson. My guess is that they'll try to slow down Johnson and it is very likely that Daniels will make them pay in a big way.
On offense, Chad Henne looked a lot better last week than he did at any point last year. He still has the arm to be effective and while I'm not sure I saw a ton of progressions or pocket poise, we still are unsure of how improved the Texans defense is. This will be an interesting test both for Henne and for the Texans defense on the road. Reggie Bush made a lot of nice plays last week but it sounds like Dan Thomas will actually see the field a bit more this week. I don't think that is a positive for Miami THIS week, though it probably is the right move long-term.
Overall I see this game as one between two teams that are currently back-able. The line seems about right. Add it all up and it looks like a stay-away. Hopefully the dynamics of the game will favor one team greatly and we can come back next week and back the other.
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Patriots -7
O/U 53.5
Wow at that over/under, is this the NFL or the MAC? Pretty odd to see a team go from being 7 point favorites against Adrian Peterson and co. to 7 point dogs the next week.
Say what you will about Donovan McNabb only throwing for 40 yards last weekend but can we really give no credit to San Diego's defense? Holding any QB getting a start for a NFL team to under 50 yards is impressive. Holding Tavaris Jackson or Brodie Croyle to 40 yards would be impressive. Holding Jimmy Clausen to 40 yards would be...eh, OK, so holding any QB other than Jimmy Clausen to that total would be impressive. But I digress - the point is that we are probably going to see something in-between what we saw last week. There is no chance San Diego is going to repeat the performance against Brady, but it is also unlikely that Brady will approach his performance from last week. The problem is, there is a lot of room for being wrong when trying to project in a range between 40 and 500 yards. The over/under being 53.5 probably gives us a hint there though....
Defensively, New England was borderline exposed by Henne last week. I think they match up better against the run with Matthews/Tolbert. Spikes and Mayo are ridiculously good tacklers and I think Bush's speed was the key to finding any type of production. San Diego's game is more power which plays right into New England's wheelhouse. Not exactly a death sentence for a team with Philip Rivers slinging the rock. If Chad Henne went for over 400 against this defense, it's hard not to project similar or better production from Rivers.
Overall my feeling is this - I want no part of laying 7 points to the Chargers. I want no part of figuring out the Chargers. And I want no part of betting against Brady at just about any point spread right now. The over/under of 53.5 makes what looks like an inflated line (7) a lot less significant. Expect these teams to be scoring touchdowns early and often. Gun to my head I'd take the points, but again, I really want no part of either side here.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Broncos -3.5
O/U 40
Denver really disappointed me Monday night. I felt that I had a strong cap on that game and I waked away feeling like they left a lot of opportunities on the table. At the same time, I think we saw a battle of two really weak teams. You could say a lot of the same things to summarize the Bengals game, with the major difference being that they actually took advantage and won. They won a game they weren't supposed to even be that competitive mind you, while the Broncos lost a game they were supposed to win.
Constantly, in the NFL, I think value comes in betting on the teams no one else wants to. Everyone feels more "safe" when they bet a team like the Pats or the Saints. Teams that will always be in a game, rarely blown out, always capable of mounting comebacks with their dynamic QB's. Unfortunately, Vegas makes you pay a price to back teams like that, while often you are better off picking out teams like these that are certain to be hanging out on the clearance rack all season. It just comes down to picking the right spots...because anytime you take an item off the clearance rack, you take a risk of being the joke of the party.
I say this because I find myself, inexplicably to most, attracted for the second straight week to the Cincinnati Bengals. Monitoring the injuries for the Broncos is of utmost importance here and for that reason I am not going to get too in-depth yet, if I decide it's a play I will.
The shortcut version is this - I think the Raiders are really bad. I think the Bengals are better than perception. As important as QB is, everyone is blinded by just thinking Andy Dalton is a rookie with a weak arm. They still have a decent offensive line, solid run game and a reasonable defense. Denver certainly has more big play threats and Orton is capable of throwing Dalton out of the stadium. But if that doesn't happen, the Bengals have a chance of stealing away here. And get the field goal PLUS the hook is the icing on the cake. At just 3 even it is probably a stay-away. At 3.5 it's awfully tempting. More to come here possibly....
Will also be adding what should be a very in-depth look at the Sunday night game tomorrow. Will hold off until Monday to give what should also be a very in-depth look at that game.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Sunday's 1 O'Clock Card
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Saints -7
O/U 47
Talk about getting no respect. The Bears go out in week 1, blow the doors off everyone's favorite Super Bowl darling the Atlanta Falcons and now find themselves grabbing a touchdown in New Orleans. How many would they be getting if they had lost to Atlanta? As I noted, I'm not big on this Bears team and seeing Atlanta rack up 4 sacks against them, even in defeat, worries me. How will their offensive line hold up against the blitz-happy Saints? Despite the blitzing the Saints didn't exactly light up the Packers o-line though. If you can block them there are yards to be had all over the place.
I know how much perceptions change after just one week of football, but it's interesting how quickly everyone hopped back on the Drew Brees bandwagon and jumped off Matt Ryan's. Wasn't the Falcons offense supposed to be dynamic this year? Are we really giving this little credit to the performance of the Chicago defense last week? I realize that when you recover all five of the fumbled balls in a game, you had some good juju working, but when you force four fumbles and sack Ryan the same amount of times it's also a sign of just how good your defense is in the first place.
The value here is squarely on the Bears. I wrote that I would prefer to avoid them and there is still one huge reason to do so: The Bears o-line/Cutler facing a team that will be coming after him nearly every play. Undecided as of yet, but this is strictly a Bears or no play in my opinion. If it turns into a play there will be more to come on why.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Lions -9
O/U 45
The deal with this line, to me, is this - the Lions are likely winners and Vegas has hung a line of 9 to avoid people from teasing it down. That there lends itself to value on the Chiefs because I really think the line deserves to be 7 or 7.5 That said, does it make enough of a difference to play?
Well, what we have here is a classic case of a QB (Cassel) who you simply can't back on the road at this point. With a solid Detroit defense taking the field are you really going to take 9 points with a team that just lost to the Bills by 34 at home? It's pretty tough to do.
On the other end, playing big favorites in the NFL is not my favorite strategy. In particular, I don't like to play a big favorite unless I am convinced the team laying the points is one of the league's elite. To say I'm not convinced of the Lions being that is a huge understatement. They still did very little on the ground and eventually exposed a secondary that only had one good player. The Chiefs cornerbacks are still good enough on paper that I would want to avoid Detroit at all costs here.
Personally, I won't be surprised if Detroit takes them out back to the woodshed. I also wouldn't be too shocked to watch Stafford turn it over a few times, have Charles make a couple big plays and see Kansas City hanging around late with a chance to win.
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jets -9
O/U 39
The point of interest here to me will be to see if the defense that just shut down Chris Johnson can do the same against a Jets team (namely Shonn Greene) that was similarly stymied against the Cowboys. Personally, I have a hard time buying into either end of that. That Jaguars defense last year was historically bad. Was Paul Posluszny all that was really needed to make for this radical change? I'm thinking it was either just a blip on the radar, or an issue in Tennessee. The Jets offensive line is much less likely to be as overwhelmed by the Jacksonville front-7 as they were with Dallas on Sunday. It's just a huge drop in class on that front. Expect the Jets to look to get Greene going early and often and that should open up things for Sanchez, but will he take advantage?
In other news, Luke McCown is probably going to struggle to move the deal on the Jets defense. You can't get this type of analysis anywhere else folks! The Jaguars are a running football team and they are coming off a decent winning effort in large part thanks to that. But keep in mind that it is my opinion that Tennessee will likely be one of the league's worst against the run this year. Follow that up with the Jets, a top-5 run defense, and well, you better really have some unheralded reason to believe in Luke McCown if you intend to back Jacksonville here.
Hard not to look at this game and see the Jets winning with relative ease. Still probably don't see enough here to lay the 9, but I would play the Jets in suicide leagues with confidence.
Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Bills -3.5
O/U 43
I know the recent history of these two teams probably suggests it, but doesn't that total just seem a couple points high? The Cowboys and Niners are lined at 42.5. Maybe it's just me...
While the Bills put on the performance of week 1, the Raiders in my opinion benefited from a lot of fortune.
What I see here this week is a similar matchup for the Bills. Only this time they play at home against a west-coast team, coming east, to play an early game, on a short week. Seriously, I'll tip my cap to Run Dmc but if you really liked anything about the Raiders offense last week I don't know what you were watching. Jason Campbell looked terrible, the receivers still stink and when McFadden doesn't bust it for 20+ it seem he's stuck at the line of scrimmage. I don't want to get all nutty about the Bills defense but watching them absolutely bottle up an even more dynamic runner in Jamal Charles - they need to simply reproduce last weeks defensive performance against an offense that basically could switch jerseys with the Chiefs and no one would notice. Think about it - shit-armed quarterback, explosive duel-threat RB, horrendous WR's and garbage along the o-line. Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs o-line actually swing the balance in KC's favor to me and while I don't think we will quite see the snowball effect that we did last week at Arrowhead, I feel there is some value in Buffalo at less than 4 (and don't particularly mind them all the way up to 6).
What concerns me most with Buffalo is how they are going to handle Oakland's front-7. Those guys completely overwhelmed Denver on Monday night and Buffalo's o-line is not a strength. Don't expect Fred Jackson to repeat his success like he did last week. What you have to trust here is a solid gameplan by Chan Gailey...if he can buy some time for Fitzpatrick back there we saw just how brutal the Oakland secondary is.
Lean to the Bills and lean to the under.
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Redskins -4
O/U 44
Here is a game that I absolutely refuse to bet. I will say that there is no conceivable way I could imagine laying over a FG with Washington, so gun to my head I would just take the points. I mean, are we all seriously sipping the Rex Grossman kool-aid this much already that he's laying over a FG? I know it's not like they instilled him as a touchdown favorite, but still. Unfortunately, if you, like me, were waiting for a spot to fade Grossman against a team with better cornerbacks than New York, the wait continues. In fact, this week, he might be facing the only group of corners weaker than what the Giants rolled out there last week. Don't believe me? Just ask Steve Smith and Cam Newton.
Either way here whatever team wins and moves to 2-0 will be on my radar as a possible fade. I do think an interesting thing to watch here is how well Beanie Wells can run it. Besides just being interested in seeing if Wells is finally going to live up to the hype this year, if Arizona has any type of chance to be decent this year they are going to need him to chew up clock, because even if Kolb plays well that defense is terrible.
Not sure what else I can say about this one. To me it's take the points or pass with a strong recommendation of just doing the latter unless you really love Kevin Kolb.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Ravens -5.5
O/U 38
Tennessee out-gained Jacksonville despite the loss and really seemed to gain control of the game in the second half. The Jaguars managed to do just enough to prevent Kenny Britt from coming all the way back on them.
Baltimore's dismantling of Pittsburgh was mighty impressive. I think the final score had a lot to do with jumping out front and things snowballing though. If you were watching early on Pittsburgh was running it effectively and after falling behind, in large part to a Roethlisberger fumble, came right down the field and scored to make it 14-7. Pittsburgh then got the ball back and Roethlisberger could do nothing with it. The turning point in the game came on the next Baltimore drive. The Ravens methodically drove the ball down the field and managed to convert on all 3rd down attempts. By the time Pittsburgh got the ball back it was practically halftime. The first play of the second half was where Mendenhall got buried as he was receiving the handoff. The next play Flacco threw a touchdown and suddenly the game had spiraled out of control. Major credit to Baltimore for taking these turnovers and converting them into touchdowns on the Pittsburgh defense. I just remain a touch less than convinced that this wasn't a game that worked in their favor from the get-go.
If Hasselbeck limits turnovers, I could see how Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt could keep Tennessee in the game here. And there is good news on Johnson's health as new reports project him to be in line for 25-30 touches possibly. That bodes well for the Titans, at least this week, but I'm not sure it would give me enough confidence in Tennessee to bother with the points.
Road test for Baltimore here will be interesting to monitor. While I probably won't give him too much credit even if he does, if you're a Baltimore fan you have to be crossing your fingers hoping that Flacco can put up another performance resembling what he did to Pittsburgh last week. Never a model of consistency, it would be a small step forward for Flacco and a great sign for Baltimore overall.
Lean to the points but not convinced of it yet.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pittsburgh -14
O/U 40
You, me, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Pete Carroll, his mother, your mother and mine all know what is going to happen here. It just comes down to whether or not you are really in the business of laying 14 points in the NFL. With no chance whatsoever of Marshawn Lynch doing anything, it comes down to whether you think the Seattle D/Special Teams can score and if you think Tavaris Jackson can do what he did this past weekend - suck for all intents and purposes, but connect on a couple big plays. This would be a good week for him to get Sidney Rice back but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
The odd thing about the Seahawks is that defensively they played extremely well last week. And just when Tavaris got them back in the game, the special teams dropped the ball and the score in turn looks a lot more lopsided than it would have had Ted Ginn not went all Ohio State on them. As bad as Ben Roethlisberger played last week however, something tells us all that he's going to make amends for that this week. This isn't exactly Alex Smith we're dealing with.
The way I always look at these lines where you are inclined to take the favorite is this: the backdoor TD rule. Are you confident enough that the team you want to take will be covering the spread by more than a TD with 6:00 to play in the game or so. If you're not, you're kind of turning the game into a coin flip and will be constantly stressing games late and/or constantly suffering tilt-inducing losses on "backdoor BS." I just don't think I can trust Pittsburgh enough to know that they won't give up a free TD with an early turnover or something along those lines. If that happens this still probably turns into a 27-10, 31-10 type of game but the margin for error is just too small and you'll be hoping to hold off the backdoor.
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -10
O/U 46
Well, first off, the Carolina Panthers are going to have a hard time stopping Green Bay. Again, you can't get this analysis anywhere else...but seriously Arizona left a lot of points on the table against the Panthers defense in the first half last week. Don't expect the Packers to afford them the same fortune this week.
I'd love to come up with some kind of super-smart angle about why Carolina is a big play, but I'd be lying if I said I did. The Green Bay defense has a lot of incentive to come out guns blazing here and with Cam Newton having already made his opening statement, don't expect them to be fooled here.
Newton's week 1 was extremely interesting on so many levels. By now we have all seen the highlight of Steve Smith, with 15 yards of separation, going for 80-some yards and a score. Still, it's not every day that a QB can throw for 400+ yards in the NFL, and in a career debut it is basically unheard of. There is a fine line between adjusting for opponent strength (or lack thereof in the case of the Zona D) and crediting rare performances.
Tough game to really endorse either way, my feeling now is that the line is pretty good. Green Bay should again fill it up but I think Newton will make enough plays along the way to at the least keep the backdoor within his grasps.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vikings -3
O/U 41
In a week with a bunch of big lines that are tough to swallow, is there any game that screams stay away more than this one? I honestly can't imagine how it could get much more even than this.
On one hand McNabb infamously threw for under 40 yards last week. Despite that ADP kept Minnesota in the game. When looking at the Tampa Bay defense, I think Peterson will do his thing, but they usually look pretty stout against the run. Where you can really expose this Tampa Bay defense is where their head coach is supposed to be the foremost guru - the secondary. Aqib Talib, despite a pick-6, still got the worst of his matchup with Megatron. But don't hold that against him much, Megatron destroys almost everyone he goes against, especially when his QB actually has an NFL-caliber arm attached to his side. Talib is still one of the league's very best corners as far as I'm concerned. Unfortunately, Tampa runs into the issue where Talib basically becomes ignored and the opposing QB will pick on the rest of the guys. And the rest of those guys walk a fine line between garbage and atrocious. I could make an argument that maybe Detroit really exposed Tampa's secondary a lot more than most will because not only did they get to throw at the CB2 and CB3's, but Talib also wasn't shutting down his man as usual...which was basically the straw that broke the camels back for the Tampa defense. As much of a Donovan McNabb fan as I am, it's hard to really see a guy coming off 39 yards exposing this defense as much as Detroit's did. If Minnesota wins comfortably here, to me, it will be because Peterson approaches or tops 200 yards.
The Bucs on offense again face a challenge in that they will find it difficult to be able to get Blount untracked again. Minnesota's run defense is just too good and Blount plays into the power style that they are so custom-built to stop. If Tampa Bay gets it done on the road it's likely to be because Josh Freeman has a big game.
Overall, at something like 4.5 I'd be interested in Tampa Bay here. At 3 it just seems like an easy pass.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
Browns -1.5
O/U 39
Can't imagine that anyone realized too long ago just how close we were to seeing the Cleveland Browns installed as a road favorite against the Indianapolis Colts.
Don't expect to see me backing Indy much, if ever this season. I was as down on them as anyone and while I feel like getting points (even 1.5) against this lousy Browns team at home is probably an overreaction to them losing big to (in my eyes) one of the better teams in the NFL....I'm not sure that they match up well here. Even if Peyton Manning was playing, wouldn't you be worried about the Browns getting lose on the lead here and pounding it up the gut with Hillis and Hardesty all day long? The Browns one big offensive strength - power running - is the exact big weakness on this Colts defense. I've said it over and over - I said it before last week with the Texans and Ben Tate predictably went off - the Colts defense can't play without the lead. I do expect the Colts to stack the box, which is easily afforded given Colt McCoy's extreme conservatism as a NFL QB so far. If McCoy is able to make a few plays early though, it may free up some space and then things will get ugly. On top of that, it wouldn't be the first time the Colts loaded the box and got run all over anyway.
On the other end I just can't trust Kerry Collins and this offense until I see a little something. Not scared of this Browns defense at all. If you're a good NFL defense the Bengals should've been completely shut down last week. The talent level just isn't there for the Browns and I think it's impossible to predict who will hold the advantage there (Colts O vs. Browns D).
In the end this is another game that I would personally avoid. If you're a believer in the Browns defense I could see going with Cleveland, but to me it's a fairly obvious pass.
Saints -7
O/U 47
Talk about getting no respect. The Bears go out in week 1, blow the doors off everyone's favorite Super Bowl darling the Atlanta Falcons and now find themselves grabbing a touchdown in New Orleans. How many would they be getting if they had lost to Atlanta? As I noted, I'm not big on this Bears team and seeing Atlanta rack up 4 sacks against them, even in defeat, worries me. How will their offensive line hold up against the blitz-happy Saints? Despite the blitzing the Saints didn't exactly light up the Packers o-line though. If you can block them there are yards to be had all over the place.
I know how much perceptions change after just one week of football, but it's interesting how quickly everyone hopped back on the Drew Brees bandwagon and jumped off Matt Ryan's. Wasn't the Falcons offense supposed to be dynamic this year? Are we really giving this little credit to the performance of the Chicago defense last week? I realize that when you recover all five of the fumbled balls in a game, you had some good juju working, but when you force four fumbles and sack Ryan the same amount of times it's also a sign of just how good your defense is in the first place.
The value here is squarely on the Bears. I wrote that I would prefer to avoid them and there is still one huge reason to do so: The Bears o-line/Cutler facing a team that will be coming after him nearly every play. Undecided as of yet, but this is strictly a Bears or no play in my opinion. If it turns into a play there will be more to come on why.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Lions -9
O/U 45
The deal with this line, to me, is this - the Lions are likely winners and Vegas has hung a line of 9 to avoid people from teasing it down. That there lends itself to value on the Chiefs because I really think the line deserves to be 7 or 7.5 That said, does it make enough of a difference to play?
Well, what we have here is a classic case of a QB (Cassel) who you simply can't back on the road at this point. With a solid Detroit defense taking the field are you really going to take 9 points with a team that just lost to the Bills by 34 at home? It's pretty tough to do.
On the other end, playing big favorites in the NFL is not my favorite strategy. In particular, I don't like to play a big favorite unless I am convinced the team laying the points is one of the league's elite. To say I'm not convinced of the Lions being that is a huge understatement. They still did very little on the ground and eventually exposed a secondary that only had one good player. The Chiefs cornerbacks are still good enough on paper that I would want to avoid Detroit at all costs here.
Personally, I won't be surprised if Detroit takes them out back to the woodshed. I also wouldn't be too shocked to watch Stafford turn it over a few times, have Charles make a couple big plays and see Kansas City hanging around late with a chance to win.
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jets -9
O/U 39
The point of interest here to me will be to see if the defense that just shut down Chris Johnson can do the same against a Jets team (namely Shonn Greene) that was similarly stymied against the Cowboys. Personally, I have a hard time buying into either end of that. That Jaguars defense last year was historically bad. Was Paul Posluszny all that was really needed to make for this radical change? I'm thinking it was either just a blip on the radar, or an issue in Tennessee. The Jets offensive line is much less likely to be as overwhelmed by the Jacksonville front-7 as they were with Dallas on Sunday. It's just a huge drop in class on that front. Expect the Jets to look to get Greene going early and often and that should open up things for Sanchez, but will he take advantage?
In other news, Luke McCown is probably going to struggle to move the deal on the Jets defense. You can't get this type of analysis anywhere else folks! The Jaguars are a running football team and they are coming off a decent winning effort in large part thanks to that. But keep in mind that it is my opinion that Tennessee will likely be one of the league's worst against the run this year. Follow that up with the Jets, a top-5 run defense, and well, you better really have some unheralded reason to believe in Luke McCown if you intend to back Jacksonville here.
Hard not to look at this game and see the Jets winning with relative ease. Still probably don't see enough here to lay the 9, but I would play the Jets in suicide leagues with confidence.
Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Bills -3.5
O/U 43
I know the recent history of these two teams probably suggests it, but doesn't that total just seem a couple points high? The Cowboys and Niners are lined at 42.5. Maybe it's just me...
While the Bills put on the performance of week 1, the Raiders in my opinion benefited from a lot of fortune.
What I see here this week is a similar matchup for the Bills. Only this time they play at home against a west-coast team, coming east, to play an early game, on a short week. Seriously, I'll tip my cap to Run Dmc but if you really liked anything about the Raiders offense last week I don't know what you were watching. Jason Campbell looked terrible, the receivers still stink and when McFadden doesn't bust it for 20+ it seem he's stuck at the line of scrimmage. I don't want to get all nutty about the Bills defense but watching them absolutely bottle up an even more dynamic runner in Jamal Charles - they need to simply reproduce last weeks defensive performance against an offense that basically could switch jerseys with the Chiefs and no one would notice. Think about it - shit-armed quarterback, explosive duel-threat RB, horrendous WR's and garbage along the o-line. Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs o-line actually swing the balance in KC's favor to me and while I don't think we will quite see the snowball effect that we did last week at Arrowhead, I feel there is some value in Buffalo at less than 4 (and don't particularly mind them all the way up to 6).
What concerns me most with Buffalo is how they are going to handle Oakland's front-7. Those guys completely overwhelmed Denver on Monday night and Buffalo's o-line is not a strength. Don't expect Fred Jackson to repeat his success like he did last week. What you have to trust here is a solid gameplan by Chan Gailey...if he can buy some time for Fitzpatrick back there we saw just how brutal the Oakland secondary is.
Lean to the Bills and lean to the under.
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Redskins -4
O/U 44
Here is a game that I absolutely refuse to bet. I will say that there is no conceivable way I could imagine laying over a FG with Washington, so gun to my head I would just take the points. I mean, are we all seriously sipping the Rex Grossman kool-aid this much already that he's laying over a FG? I know it's not like they instilled him as a touchdown favorite, but still. Unfortunately, if you, like me, were waiting for a spot to fade Grossman against a team with better cornerbacks than New York, the wait continues. In fact, this week, he might be facing the only group of corners weaker than what the Giants rolled out there last week. Don't believe me? Just ask Steve Smith and Cam Newton.
Either way here whatever team wins and moves to 2-0 will be on my radar as a possible fade. I do think an interesting thing to watch here is how well Beanie Wells can run it. Besides just being interested in seeing if Wells is finally going to live up to the hype this year, if Arizona has any type of chance to be decent this year they are going to need him to chew up clock, because even if Kolb plays well that defense is terrible.
Not sure what else I can say about this one. To me it's take the points or pass with a strong recommendation of just doing the latter unless you really love Kevin Kolb.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Ravens -5.5
O/U 38
Tennessee out-gained Jacksonville despite the loss and really seemed to gain control of the game in the second half. The Jaguars managed to do just enough to prevent Kenny Britt from coming all the way back on them.
Baltimore's dismantling of Pittsburgh was mighty impressive. I think the final score had a lot to do with jumping out front and things snowballing though. If you were watching early on Pittsburgh was running it effectively and after falling behind, in large part to a Roethlisberger fumble, came right down the field and scored to make it 14-7. Pittsburgh then got the ball back and Roethlisberger could do nothing with it. The turning point in the game came on the next Baltimore drive. The Ravens methodically drove the ball down the field and managed to convert on all 3rd down attempts. By the time Pittsburgh got the ball back it was practically halftime. The first play of the second half was where Mendenhall got buried as he was receiving the handoff. The next play Flacco threw a touchdown and suddenly the game had spiraled out of control. Major credit to Baltimore for taking these turnovers and converting them into touchdowns on the Pittsburgh defense. I just remain a touch less than convinced that this wasn't a game that worked in their favor from the get-go.
If Hasselbeck limits turnovers, I could see how Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt could keep Tennessee in the game here. And there is good news on Johnson's health as new reports project him to be in line for 25-30 touches possibly. That bodes well for the Titans, at least this week, but I'm not sure it would give me enough confidence in Tennessee to bother with the points.
Road test for Baltimore here will be interesting to monitor. While I probably won't give him too much credit even if he does, if you're a Baltimore fan you have to be crossing your fingers hoping that Flacco can put up another performance resembling what he did to Pittsburgh last week. Never a model of consistency, it would be a small step forward for Flacco and a great sign for Baltimore overall.
Lean to the points but not convinced of it yet.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pittsburgh -14
O/U 40
You, me, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Pete Carroll, his mother, your mother and mine all know what is going to happen here. It just comes down to whether or not you are really in the business of laying 14 points in the NFL. With no chance whatsoever of Marshawn Lynch doing anything, it comes down to whether you think the Seattle D/Special Teams can score and if you think Tavaris Jackson can do what he did this past weekend - suck for all intents and purposes, but connect on a couple big plays. This would be a good week for him to get Sidney Rice back but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
The odd thing about the Seahawks is that defensively they played extremely well last week. And just when Tavaris got them back in the game, the special teams dropped the ball and the score in turn looks a lot more lopsided than it would have had Ted Ginn not went all Ohio State on them. As bad as Ben Roethlisberger played last week however, something tells us all that he's going to make amends for that this week. This isn't exactly Alex Smith we're dealing with.
The way I always look at these lines where you are inclined to take the favorite is this: the backdoor TD rule. Are you confident enough that the team you want to take will be covering the spread by more than a TD with 6:00 to play in the game or so. If you're not, you're kind of turning the game into a coin flip and will be constantly stressing games late and/or constantly suffering tilt-inducing losses on "backdoor BS." I just don't think I can trust Pittsburgh enough to know that they won't give up a free TD with an early turnover or something along those lines. If that happens this still probably turns into a 27-10, 31-10 type of game but the margin for error is just too small and you'll be hoping to hold off the backdoor.
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -10
O/U 46
Well, first off, the Carolina Panthers are going to have a hard time stopping Green Bay. Again, you can't get this analysis anywhere else...but seriously Arizona left a lot of points on the table against the Panthers defense in the first half last week. Don't expect the Packers to afford them the same fortune this week.
I'd love to come up with some kind of super-smart angle about why Carolina is a big play, but I'd be lying if I said I did. The Green Bay defense has a lot of incentive to come out guns blazing here and with Cam Newton having already made his opening statement, don't expect them to be fooled here.
Newton's week 1 was extremely interesting on so many levels. By now we have all seen the highlight of Steve Smith, with 15 yards of separation, going for 80-some yards and a score. Still, it's not every day that a QB can throw for 400+ yards in the NFL, and in a career debut it is basically unheard of. There is a fine line between adjusting for opponent strength (or lack thereof in the case of the Zona D) and crediting rare performances.
Tough game to really endorse either way, my feeling now is that the line is pretty good. Green Bay should again fill it up but I think Newton will make enough plays along the way to at the least keep the backdoor within his grasps.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vikings -3
O/U 41
In a week with a bunch of big lines that are tough to swallow, is there any game that screams stay away more than this one? I honestly can't imagine how it could get much more even than this.
On one hand McNabb infamously threw for under 40 yards last week. Despite that ADP kept Minnesota in the game. When looking at the Tampa Bay defense, I think Peterson will do his thing, but they usually look pretty stout against the run. Where you can really expose this Tampa Bay defense is where their head coach is supposed to be the foremost guru - the secondary. Aqib Talib, despite a pick-6, still got the worst of his matchup with Megatron. But don't hold that against him much, Megatron destroys almost everyone he goes against, especially when his QB actually has an NFL-caliber arm attached to his side. Talib is still one of the league's very best corners as far as I'm concerned. Unfortunately, Tampa runs into the issue where Talib basically becomes ignored and the opposing QB will pick on the rest of the guys. And the rest of those guys walk a fine line between garbage and atrocious. I could make an argument that maybe Detroit really exposed Tampa's secondary a lot more than most will because not only did they get to throw at the CB2 and CB3's, but Talib also wasn't shutting down his man as usual...which was basically the straw that broke the camels back for the Tampa defense. As much of a Donovan McNabb fan as I am, it's hard to really see a guy coming off 39 yards exposing this defense as much as Detroit's did. If Minnesota wins comfortably here, to me, it will be because Peterson approaches or tops 200 yards.
The Bucs on offense again face a challenge in that they will find it difficult to be able to get Blount untracked again. Minnesota's run defense is just too good and Blount plays into the power style that they are so custom-built to stop. If Tampa Bay gets it done on the road it's likely to be because Josh Freeman has a big game.
Overall, at something like 4.5 I'd be interested in Tampa Bay here. At 3 it just seems like an easy pass.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
Browns -1.5
O/U 39
Can't imagine that anyone realized too long ago just how close we were to seeing the Cleveland Browns installed as a road favorite against the Indianapolis Colts.
Don't expect to see me backing Indy much, if ever this season. I was as down on them as anyone and while I feel like getting points (even 1.5) against this lousy Browns team at home is probably an overreaction to them losing big to (in my eyes) one of the better teams in the NFL....I'm not sure that they match up well here. Even if Peyton Manning was playing, wouldn't you be worried about the Browns getting lose on the lead here and pounding it up the gut with Hillis and Hardesty all day long? The Browns one big offensive strength - power running - is the exact big weakness on this Colts defense. I've said it over and over - I said it before last week with the Texans and Ben Tate predictably went off - the Colts defense can't play without the lead. I do expect the Colts to stack the box, which is easily afforded given Colt McCoy's extreme conservatism as a NFL QB so far. If McCoy is able to make a few plays early though, it may free up some space and then things will get ugly. On top of that, it wouldn't be the first time the Colts loaded the box and got run all over anyway.
On the other end I just can't trust Kerry Collins and this offense until I see a little something. Not scared of this Browns defense at all. If you're a good NFL defense the Bengals should've been completely shut down last week. The talent level just isn't there for the Browns and I think it's impossible to predict who will hold the advantage there (Colts O vs. Browns D).
In the end this is another game that I would personally avoid. If you're a believer in the Browns defense I could see going with Cleveland, but to me it's a fairly obvious pass.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Game Reviews
These will range from very brief to quite in-depth, the goal here it to try to write down things you saw from teams that merit monitoring. For instance, was a team extremely vulnerable against the run but got out to an early lead and not exposed? Stuff like that...
Bears 30 Falcons 12
Alarming result for the Falcons. Their defense was completely exposed, particularly the secondary as Cutler threw for 9 yards per attempt despite no real weapons at WR. Abraham had two sacks and the Falcons had 4 total, so I wouldn't blame the pass rush much and I also wouldn't be jumping to any conclusions that the Bears have suddenly fixed their issues on the offensive line (and Cutler's willingness to take lots of sacks). Really a weird game and two teams that I probably prefer to avoid, though would consider betting against.
Bengals 27 Browns 17
I think we found out that this Browns team is who I thought they were. Not very good. McCoy is going to struggle to take a step forward this year, Peyton Hillis was bottled up and the defense played horribly. The Bengals are going to be very conservative, looking to run Benson a ton and keeping most throws underneath, looks like an awfully fortunate win against a very weak opponent.
Bills 41 Chiefs 7
Well, no one saw this coming. I was seeing value in the Bills, but this was just impossible to predict. The KC defense could not have possibly looked any worse and losing Eric Berry for the season will do it no favors. The Bills defense really looks improved as they somehow managed to bottle up Charles, especially and perhaps most surprisingly, in the receiving game. I wouldn't read too much into it though as Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady to begin with and playing with cracked ribs he looked completely useless out there. Until he looks healthier this Chiefs team is unbackable. Bills are a major consideration for next weeks action with Oakland coming to town on a short week...
Eagles 31 Rams 13
Initially, I was going to be all over the Rams, but the more I looked into it the more I started to believe that the Eagles were a borderline lock here and that is basically what was proven on the field. The Eagles showed major, major vulnerability in both their blocking and their run defense. If a team can just pound the rock up the middle the Eagles are either going to get gashed or will have to use a lot of resources to stop it. On offense, as long as Vick, McCoy and Jackson stay healthy (D-Jax already was dinged up) the blocking probably won't be too much of a factor. They are just so explosive and Vick buys so much time on roll-outs that the points will be there. I still think come playoff time, and in certain matchups this year, teams will be able to expose them because of this though. I thought that the Rams had a bad matchup here. They are a young, fairly fast team and they just got beat by a team that does what they do better. You can't hold this one against them too much moving forward, though they did suffer some tough injuries.
Lions 27 Bucs 20
I can see already that this Lions team is going to be one that, for better or worse, I'll be fading early and often. There were simply too many question marks in Tampa for me to take them. Tampa was even fortunate on an early pick-6 by Aqib Talib. The Lions easily outgained them all game and by all accounts probably should've won by more. I think it's more of an indictment of Tampa though as really the front-seven wasn't able to apply any pressure and has major question marks. Outside Talib the secondary is weak. Blount never got untracked and figured to have a tough tough running against this Lions front-7. You can look at Stafford's gaudy passing numbers and talk about how unstoppable Calvin Johnson is, but to me, let's see what happens when Stafford faces a team with a pass rush. It doesn't look like they can run it and I think some pressure would expose these Lions for what they are.
Jaguars 16 Titans 14
Not sure what really can be said here, but it does appear that the Titans are going to have a hard time stopping any running game all year. When Luke McCown is at QB and you can't stop the running back you have issues. Hasselbeck padded his stats in large part thanks to Kenny Britt's YAC. Surprised to see Chris Johnson get so locked up and I will be paying close attention to how the Jags do next week vs. the run to see if this is a strength of the Jags or a possible issue for the Titans. If CJ isn't going to be a beast this looks like a long year for the Titans.
Ravens 35 Steelers 7
While you can't be too much more off about a game than this, and with Steelers OT Colon lost for the season, I want to believe that there is no need to panic about these Steelers. First off, Flacco, a guy I have questioned more than most over the years, has every right to take a big step forward this season and we might have seen the makings of just that. Secondly, the Steelers fumbled 4 times and lost all 4. If not for the turnovers, Pittsburgh RB Rashard Mendenhall actually had the makings of a nice game on the ground, but soon they were forced to air it out. Terrell Suggs proved unblockable and ended with 3 sacks...the Pitt o-line remains a major concern and I think they are unbackable until we find out how much of the issues are with them not being able to block vs. how good the Ravens front-7 is. I'm not making too much of the Pitt-D getting old talk that you're hearing everywhere though, they were put in impossible spots all day and I think the game is a complete toss for them. Hard not to come away impressed with Baltimore though, they look like they could be one of the NFL's best teams if they suddenly have an offense.
Texans 34 Colts 7
The Colts are seriously going to be awful. They are a team whose defense is built to play with a lead and their offense is now incapable of getting them one. For years, it's been known that you can gash the Colts defense up the middle on the ground and teams are going to be doing that until Indy is blue in the face. On the other end I will make a prediction that Kerry Collins won't last long as the starter. Unless they can provide better protection for him he's going to be a turnover machine. The Texans I do believe are the real deal, but I can't give them any type of credit for this as the matchup really couldn't have been any better for them. Equipped with big targets in the passing game and one of the league's premier power running games, they had to win big here in my eyes, and while I take nothing away from them for taking care of business, let's see what they do next week before patting ourselves on the backs about them.
Cardinals 28 Panthers 21
Already covered this but will add that the Panthers defense, now officially missing Beason for the season, is going to be really bad it appears. Beanie Wells gashed them with ease. On the other end, the Cardinals defense looks absolutely atrocious as well...422 yards to a rookie QB in his first game is laughable. Both teams are strictly unbackable and perfectly good fades to me, particularly Arizona...
Chargers 24 Vikings 17
McNabb being 7/15 for 39 yards just doesn't bode well any way you slice it. Minnesota did what you'd expect, they ran it effectively and stopped the run effectively...everything else looks pretty weak. Can't say that the Chargers were overwhelming, but they are the Chargers and sometimes you feel like you shouldn't even bother trying to get a read on them. That is how I feel following this one.
49ers 33 Seahawks 17
Tough game to gauge. On the one hand the 49ers completely dominated the game early but kept settling for FG's and allowed Seattle to somewhat hang around. The Seattle offense is absolutely horrible, but a 55 yard TD pass snuck them back into the game with 4 minutes left. Ted Ginn took a kick and punt return to the house over the next couple minutes and that ended the Seattle bid. Alex Smith did very little to change anyone's opinion of him while Crabtree caught 1 ball for 4 yards before again going out to injury. Both teams averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry.
Redskins 28 Giants 14
Really don't want to re-visit a game where Rex Grossman was able to average 7.6 YPA while going over 300 yards with 2 TD's and no picks. And his numbers could very well have looked tons better if there weren't a bunch of drops along the way. The Giants secondary could not have played any worse. Actually, it probably could have...if you removed Kenny Philips they may have never made a stop. Aaron Ross is such a liability it's a joke, expect teams to pick on him early and often. Corey Webster is great at covering the fly route, but any type of cut by a receiver and he is toasted. I thought the Giants pass rush was still getting plenty of push, the simple fact was that the corners couldn't cover anyone and Rex Grossman rarely needed to move to his second read. When he did he simply threw it away. If you're not foaming at the mouth to bet against Rex Grossman against a team with better corners I don't know what to tell you. It's nice to see him limit the turnovers in a game like that, but what happens if he's trailing in the second half and has to force the issue? Pretty sure good old Rex with start offering up the ball to the defense like we all know is his wont. The fact that the Redskins couldn't run the ball makes it all the more obvious to me that they will struggle mightily at some point. Offensively, the Giants offensive line simply could not afford the Giants enough time to prove how much the best their skill players were. I want to give the Redskins defense some credit for that as I don't think they are a bad unit, but I also will take the stance that right now the Giants o-line is simply too makeshift to get the job done. It's not like the Redskins line is made of any type of world-beaters...that is simply unacceptable play from a unit that has been a big blue strength for some time now.
I also thought that the play-calling was a bit spotty for the Giants and would've liked more Jacobs and less Bradshaw. Bradshaw clearly had nothing going on Sunday and at least Jacobs showed some signs of life. Throw in another bad-luck INT from Eli that was returned for a touchdown and you had all the makings of a less talented team taking out one that should've simply been best. Looking forward you can't back the Giants any time soon....until the o-line figures it out I just can't see much consistency developing on offense despite all the talent that is still there. Defensively, the front-seven played just fine for me which often will hide a bad secondary. The secondary was so bad however that it didn't matter. You almost have to hope that Prince gets healthy fast and somehow is ready for the big stage....Tuck says he's 50/50 for next week and it will be big to get him back...but how much will it help if the opposing QB only has to take a 3 step drop and find Aaron Ross's man?
Jets 27 Cowboys 24
Biggest story of this game for me is how average the Jets defense looked. It's still a very good unit, you can't run it on them and Revis, despite being beaten a few times, is still tough out there. They have playmakers that will make you pay for mistakes. Despite 4 sacks, I didn't feel like their pass rush was nearly fierce enough though. It seemed like when they didn't get to Romo he was mighty comfy back there and if this Cowboys line can block it's quite clear that the Cowboys simply have too much firepower for a defense to stop. If Dez Bryant doesn't start cramping up I'm not sure the Jets would've won that game. I won't hold giving up large chunks of yardage to the Cowboys passing attack too much against the Jets D, but for now, it looks like a unit that is top-10, but not one that is some type of immovable force.
I'll be interested to see two things from the Cowboys next out: A) Can they establish a running game and B) Can the offensive line pass protect well enough. Quite simply, I think what we are seeing is the re-emergence of the Cowboys offense and if my suspection that they only struggled to run it because the Jets run-D remains elite is true, imagine how impossible they are to stop?
For the Jets on offense Mark Sanchez remains frustrating. One play he looks like a stud and the next he looks lost. He did some padding of his stats late but did average a solid 7.2 per attempt. I also thought he handled significant pressure applied by a Cowboys front-seven that surprisingly to me, overwhelmed the Jets offensive line early and often. The Jets offensive line simply has to play better. If they do, I think we will see a productive Jets offense as Holmes looked uncoverable, Plax still has a knack for catching the ball in traffic (and in the end zone) and Keller is a beast. I'll be interested to see how Shonn Greene does if his line isn't getting completely blown up.
The Cowboys defense is an easy grade to me. Their front-seven is extremely good and will be a handful for teams with weak offensive lines. Their secondary is extremely vulnerable though. If you protect your QB I think you will score at will on them...and I want to see if their next opponent is able to get more going on the ground than the Jets did.
Overall, the Cowboys are a team I want to back early and often and while I would be a bit more hesitant on backing the Jets, if the matchup was suitable I would have no issue doing so.
Patriots 38 Dolphins 24
What more is there really to say that hasn't already been said? It doesn't take 20/20 vision to see what happened last night. With that said, I'm not going to completely dismiss this Dolphins defense, the Vontae Davis injury was absolutely brutal to them because Nolan Carroll should be flipping burgers tonight. The Pats o-line looked as good as any unit that I saw and I think the Fins defense will prove to be a lot better than they looked there. Still, you'd like to see them putting up a little resistance I suppose.
On the other ends the New England secondary still looks shaky (see a theme here in the NFL?) but their linebackers make it difficult to run on them and the D-Line flashed some ability to be dominant. Still, it looks like this New England team will again live and die by Brady & co. torching any and every defense sent his way. Miami's offense merits watching. Henne still struggles to get through progressions but it looks like the speed of Reggie Bush is going to open some things up for the offense and Henne still possesses a golden arm. Would be nervous about their offense until seeing a bit more of a sample though.
Raiders 23 Broncos 20
Really saw a lot of fortune in what the Raiders did here but I think it ultimately just goes to show how bad Denver is going to be. Defensively, I think Fox lacks the type of personnel that he really wants and I don't think we're going to see Denver holding many opponents under 20 this year, despite some solid players. Offensively the Broncos offensive line simply has to play better. They couldn't open up a single hole for Moreno all day...but when Orton was afforded time Lloyd, Royal, Moreno and even McGahee were able to make some things happen out of the backfield. I would struggle mightily to find any reason to back either of these teams in the near future.
Bears 30 Falcons 12
Alarming result for the Falcons. Their defense was completely exposed, particularly the secondary as Cutler threw for 9 yards per attempt despite no real weapons at WR. Abraham had two sacks and the Falcons had 4 total, so I wouldn't blame the pass rush much and I also wouldn't be jumping to any conclusions that the Bears have suddenly fixed their issues on the offensive line (and Cutler's willingness to take lots of sacks). Really a weird game and two teams that I probably prefer to avoid, though would consider betting against.
Bengals 27 Browns 17
I think we found out that this Browns team is who I thought they were. Not very good. McCoy is going to struggle to take a step forward this year, Peyton Hillis was bottled up and the defense played horribly. The Bengals are going to be very conservative, looking to run Benson a ton and keeping most throws underneath, looks like an awfully fortunate win against a very weak opponent.
Bills 41 Chiefs 7
Well, no one saw this coming. I was seeing value in the Bills, but this was just impossible to predict. The KC defense could not have possibly looked any worse and losing Eric Berry for the season will do it no favors. The Bills defense really looks improved as they somehow managed to bottle up Charles, especially and perhaps most surprisingly, in the receiving game. I wouldn't read too much into it though as Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady to begin with and playing with cracked ribs he looked completely useless out there. Until he looks healthier this Chiefs team is unbackable. Bills are a major consideration for next weeks action with Oakland coming to town on a short week...
Eagles 31 Rams 13
Initially, I was going to be all over the Rams, but the more I looked into it the more I started to believe that the Eagles were a borderline lock here and that is basically what was proven on the field. The Eagles showed major, major vulnerability in both their blocking and their run defense. If a team can just pound the rock up the middle the Eagles are either going to get gashed or will have to use a lot of resources to stop it. On offense, as long as Vick, McCoy and Jackson stay healthy (D-Jax already was dinged up) the blocking probably won't be too much of a factor. They are just so explosive and Vick buys so much time on roll-outs that the points will be there. I still think come playoff time, and in certain matchups this year, teams will be able to expose them because of this though. I thought that the Rams had a bad matchup here. They are a young, fairly fast team and they just got beat by a team that does what they do better. You can't hold this one against them too much moving forward, though they did suffer some tough injuries.
Lions 27 Bucs 20
I can see already that this Lions team is going to be one that, for better or worse, I'll be fading early and often. There were simply too many question marks in Tampa for me to take them. Tampa was even fortunate on an early pick-6 by Aqib Talib. The Lions easily outgained them all game and by all accounts probably should've won by more. I think it's more of an indictment of Tampa though as really the front-seven wasn't able to apply any pressure and has major question marks. Outside Talib the secondary is weak. Blount never got untracked and figured to have a tough tough running against this Lions front-7. You can look at Stafford's gaudy passing numbers and talk about how unstoppable Calvin Johnson is, but to me, let's see what happens when Stafford faces a team with a pass rush. It doesn't look like they can run it and I think some pressure would expose these Lions for what they are.
Jaguars 16 Titans 14
Not sure what really can be said here, but it does appear that the Titans are going to have a hard time stopping any running game all year. When Luke McCown is at QB and you can't stop the running back you have issues. Hasselbeck padded his stats in large part thanks to Kenny Britt's YAC. Surprised to see Chris Johnson get so locked up and I will be paying close attention to how the Jags do next week vs. the run to see if this is a strength of the Jags or a possible issue for the Titans. If CJ isn't going to be a beast this looks like a long year for the Titans.
Ravens 35 Steelers 7
While you can't be too much more off about a game than this, and with Steelers OT Colon lost for the season, I want to believe that there is no need to panic about these Steelers. First off, Flacco, a guy I have questioned more than most over the years, has every right to take a big step forward this season and we might have seen the makings of just that. Secondly, the Steelers fumbled 4 times and lost all 4. If not for the turnovers, Pittsburgh RB Rashard Mendenhall actually had the makings of a nice game on the ground, but soon they were forced to air it out. Terrell Suggs proved unblockable and ended with 3 sacks...the Pitt o-line remains a major concern and I think they are unbackable until we find out how much of the issues are with them not being able to block vs. how good the Ravens front-7 is. I'm not making too much of the Pitt-D getting old talk that you're hearing everywhere though, they were put in impossible spots all day and I think the game is a complete toss for them. Hard not to come away impressed with Baltimore though, they look like they could be one of the NFL's best teams if they suddenly have an offense.
Texans 34 Colts 7
The Colts are seriously going to be awful. They are a team whose defense is built to play with a lead and their offense is now incapable of getting them one. For years, it's been known that you can gash the Colts defense up the middle on the ground and teams are going to be doing that until Indy is blue in the face. On the other end I will make a prediction that Kerry Collins won't last long as the starter. Unless they can provide better protection for him he's going to be a turnover machine. The Texans I do believe are the real deal, but I can't give them any type of credit for this as the matchup really couldn't have been any better for them. Equipped with big targets in the passing game and one of the league's premier power running games, they had to win big here in my eyes, and while I take nothing away from them for taking care of business, let's see what they do next week before patting ourselves on the backs about them.
Cardinals 28 Panthers 21
Already covered this but will add that the Panthers defense, now officially missing Beason for the season, is going to be really bad it appears. Beanie Wells gashed them with ease. On the other end, the Cardinals defense looks absolutely atrocious as well...422 yards to a rookie QB in his first game is laughable. Both teams are strictly unbackable and perfectly good fades to me, particularly Arizona...
Chargers 24 Vikings 17
McNabb being 7/15 for 39 yards just doesn't bode well any way you slice it. Minnesota did what you'd expect, they ran it effectively and stopped the run effectively...everything else looks pretty weak. Can't say that the Chargers were overwhelming, but they are the Chargers and sometimes you feel like you shouldn't even bother trying to get a read on them. That is how I feel following this one.
49ers 33 Seahawks 17
Tough game to gauge. On the one hand the 49ers completely dominated the game early but kept settling for FG's and allowed Seattle to somewhat hang around. The Seattle offense is absolutely horrible, but a 55 yard TD pass snuck them back into the game with 4 minutes left. Ted Ginn took a kick and punt return to the house over the next couple minutes and that ended the Seattle bid. Alex Smith did very little to change anyone's opinion of him while Crabtree caught 1 ball for 4 yards before again going out to injury. Both teams averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry.
Redskins 28 Giants 14
Really don't want to re-visit a game where Rex Grossman was able to average 7.6 YPA while going over 300 yards with 2 TD's and no picks. And his numbers could very well have looked tons better if there weren't a bunch of drops along the way. The Giants secondary could not have played any worse. Actually, it probably could have...if you removed Kenny Philips they may have never made a stop. Aaron Ross is such a liability it's a joke, expect teams to pick on him early and often. Corey Webster is great at covering the fly route, but any type of cut by a receiver and he is toasted. I thought the Giants pass rush was still getting plenty of push, the simple fact was that the corners couldn't cover anyone and Rex Grossman rarely needed to move to his second read. When he did he simply threw it away. If you're not foaming at the mouth to bet against Rex Grossman against a team with better corners I don't know what to tell you. It's nice to see him limit the turnovers in a game like that, but what happens if he's trailing in the second half and has to force the issue? Pretty sure good old Rex with start offering up the ball to the defense like we all know is his wont. The fact that the Redskins couldn't run the ball makes it all the more obvious to me that they will struggle mightily at some point. Offensively, the Giants offensive line simply could not afford the Giants enough time to prove how much the best their skill players were. I want to give the Redskins defense some credit for that as I don't think they are a bad unit, but I also will take the stance that right now the Giants o-line is simply too makeshift to get the job done. It's not like the Redskins line is made of any type of world-beaters...that is simply unacceptable play from a unit that has been a big blue strength for some time now.
I also thought that the play-calling was a bit spotty for the Giants and would've liked more Jacobs and less Bradshaw. Bradshaw clearly had nothing going on Sunday and at least Jacobs showed some signs of life. Throw in another bad-luck INT from Eli that was returned for a touchdown and you had all the makings of a less talented team taking out one that should've simply been best. Looking forward you can't back the Giants any time soon....until the o-line figures it out I just can't see much consistency developing on offense despite all the talent that is still there. Defensively, the front-seven played just fine for me which often will hide a bad secondary. The secondary was so bad however that it didn't matter. You almost have to hope that Prince gets healthy fast and somehow is ready for the big stage....Tuck says he's 50/50 for next week and it will be big to get him back...but how much will it help if the opposing QB only has to take a 3 step drop and find Aaron Ross's man?
Jets 27 Cowboys 24
Biggest story of this game for me is how average the Jets defense looked. It's still a very good unit, you can't run it on them and Revis, despite being beaten a few times, is still tough out there. They have playmakers that will make you pay for mistakes. Despite 4 sacks, I didn't feel like their pass rush was nearly fierce enough though. It seemed like when they didn't get to Romo he was mighty comfy back there and if this Cowboys line can block it's quite clear that the Cowboys simply have too much firepower for a defense to stop. If Dez Bryant doesn't start cramping up I'm not sure the Jets would've won that game. I won't hold giving up large chunks of yardage to the Cowboys passing attack too much against the Jets D, but for now, it looks like a unit that is top-10, but not one that is some type of immovable force.
I'll be interested to see two things from the Cowboys next out: A) Can they establish a running game and B) Can the offensive line pass protect well enough. Quite simply, I think what we are seeing is the re-emergence of the Cowboys offense and if my suspection that they only struggled to run it because the Jets run-D remains elite is true, imagine how impossible they are to stop?
For the Jets on offense Mark Sanchez remains frustrating. One play he looks like a stud and the next he looks lost. He did some padding of his stats late but did average a solid 7.2 per attempt. I also thought he handled significant pressure applied by a Cowboys front-seven that surprisingly to me, overwhelmed the Jets offensive line early and often. The Jets offensive line simply has to play better. If they do, I think we will see a productive Jets offense as Holmes looked uncoverable, Plax still has a knack for catching the ball in traffic (and in the end zone) and Keller is a beast. I'll be interested to see how Shonn Greene does if his line isn't getting completely blown up.
The Cowboys defense is an easy grade to me. Their front-seven is extremely good and will be a handful for teams with weak offensive lines. Their secondary is extremely vulnerable though. If you protect your QB I think you will score at will on them...and I want to see if their next opponent is able to get more going on the ground than the Jets did.
Overall, the Cowboys are a team I want to back early and often and while I would be a bit more hesitant on backing the Jets, if the matchup was suitable I would have no issue doing so.
Patriots 38 Dolphins 24
What more is there really to say that hasn't already been said? It doesn't take 20/20 vision to see what happened last night. With that said, I'm not going to completely dismiss this Dolphins defense, the Vontae Davis injury was absolutely brutal to them because Nolan Carroll should be flipping burgers tonight. The Pats o-line looked as good as any unit that I saw and I think the Fins defense will prove to be a lot better than they looked there. Still, you'd like to see them putting up a little resistance I suppose.
On the other ends the New England secondary still looks shaky (see a theme here in the NFL?) but their linebackers make it difficult to run on them and the D-Line flashed some ability to be dominant. Still, it looks like this New England team will again live and die by Brady & co. torching any and every defense sent his way. Miami's offense merits watching. Henne still struggles to get through progressions but it looks like the speed of Reggie Bush is going to open some things up for the offense and Henne still possesses a golden arm. Would be nervous about their offense until seeing a bit more of a sample though.
Raiders 23 Broncos 20
Really saw a lot of fortune in what the Raiders did here but I think it ultimately just goes to show how bad Denver is going to be. Defensively, I think Fox lacks the type of personnel that he really wants and I don't think we're going to see Denver holding many opponents under 20 this year, despite some solid players. Offensively the Broncos offensive line simply has to play better. They couldn't open up a single hole for Moreno all day...but when Orton was afforded time Lloyd, Royal, Moreno and even McGahee were able to make some things happen out of the backfield. I would struggle mightily to find any reason to back either of these teams in the near future.
How Did We Do?
Well, to be simple, not that well.
3-4-1
-1.4 units
Since I think it's important to reflect on your picks, even when you'd rather forget them, here is my reflection on the picks:
1:00 Sunday with three games riding the season got off to a near perfect start. The Bengals got out early and despite blowing a lead and creating some cause for concern ended up outright winners at +6.5. In the meantime, the Texans opened up a 30+ lead on the Colts. In Pittsburgh, things unraveled extremely fast for Pitt and they were never able to get anything going. All was not lost however as their offensive problems resulted in enough points for Baltimore to push the total over. 3-1 you'll take and like.
In hindsight, Pittsburgh looks and feels quite forced. Sky high on the team before the season, they were going up against a team I was pretty high on. To me, gambling on sports comes down to two basic things: A) Identify teams that will present value either betting on or against and B) Picking the right spots to bet on or against said teams. Looking back, taking the Steelers on the road against a team as talented as the Ravens, in week 1, getting less than a FG was no bargain and this was a clear case of point B.
Still, heading to 4:00 it was hard not to feel good. The Giants are my favorite team, but arguably have been my biggest cash cow over the last few years betting both on and against. Despite all the signs leading up to the game that the Skins were live (the line did the rare move through three)...I disregarded it, oversimplifying the game by boiling it down to QB v. QB. The Giants have a lot of holes and the duct-tape patch work was not strong enough. I still see some value in laying less than a FG in that spot, but clearly, I wish I stuck to my original plan and stayed away.
Much more crushing, from a betting standpoint, was what happened in the meantime in Arizona. Despite a miserable first half defensively, the Panthers caught a couple of breaks and were able to go into the half up 7 points. They also went into the 4th quarter with a 7 point lead and with every ticking second it was starting to look like the biggest play of the week was money in the bank. Arizona had the ball on their own 10 yard line with just 13 minutes remaining....2 minutes later they hooked up on a 70-yard TD pass to tie the game with 11 minutes. This was basically the only danger of not winning the bet as had they just been forced to use a lot of clock, the game would very likely end up being decided by a FG. With 7 minutes left, even having stalled out, Carolina was about to punt from the Arizona 47 and presumably would either pin them deep, or worst-case, give up a touchback. A lousy punt, followed by worse tackling, and 89 yards later and rookie Patrick Peterson blew the cover. Still, Cam Newton drove the ball down to the Arizona 6 with just over a minute remaining. A 4th and 5 pass to Mike Goodson resulted, painstakingly, a yard short.
There are a couple ways to look back at the game - I felt the first half was dominated by the Cardinals and we were very fortunate to be in such good shape. Still, it's hard to look back at the 70 yard TD pass followed by an extremely improbable 89 yard punt return and not feel sick about it. Cam Newton ended up throwing for 422 yards and both teams averaged over 7 yards per play. Tough beat on a game that shifted from extremely good fortune to extremely bad fortune from the first half to the second.
The Jets pick I think was a bit of a tilt play. I liked the Jets to win the game and said that if they were laying 3-4 I'd be all over them. 6 was clearly too many points though and the value was squarely on the Cowboys. I think I made a big mistake in the game where I wasn't looking for value, I was looking for a winner. Anytime you start doing that you know you are pressing and should not be betting. Bad decision on my part.
Last night I'm glad I stayed away from the Pats game. Coming off some rough losses it was hard to sit on the sidelines there but the bottom line is it played out about how I thought it would - the value was on the Fins, but the Pats were just too good. I did exactly what I should have done for the Jets game.
As for Denver, I think it was a mixed bag of a cap. The Broncos injury luck got no better as they had a number of guys who ended up getting dinged up. Run DMC made me look awfully foolish as he did whatever he wanted when given any type of space to work with. I did think that Jason Campbell proved incapable of backing on the road at a short price however. The biggest thing though, to me, was the thing that scared me - the Raiders front-seven outplayed the Broncos offensive line badly. Orton faced a ton of pressure all night and Moreno had absolutely zero chance anytime he was handed the ball. The Raiders secondary looked as weak can be. Maybe a touch of sour grapes, but I really think people are still underrating how fortunate the Raiders were last night. A) Playing with a lead was the only way they stood a chance last night. B) The blocked punt was huge for them. C) They hit a 63-yard FG. I'm not going to go overboard on the importance of the 63-yd FG in a game decided by three points since clearly the Raiders defense would've been playing differently if up 7 and not 10 late. Still, it's hard to ignore the flukey nature of hitting such a kick.
Overall, the bottom line is this - the Panthers win that game and things may change a bit...might have felt less inclined to force the Jets and either way it would've done wonders to the bankroll keeping out of the red and being in the slight green. And that is why you can't let outcomes affect your betting...you find and play value, don't force action, particularly on these primetime games and never ever chase.
Will hopefully post up game reviews at some point tonight, if not, definitely tomorrow.
3-4-1
-1.4 units
Since I think it's important to reflect on your picks, even when you'd rather forget them, here is my reflection on the picks:
1:00 Sunday with three games riding the season got off to a near perfect start. The Bengals got out early and despite blowing a lead and creating some cause for concern ended up outright winners at +6.5. In the meantime, the Texans opened up a 30+ lead on the Colts. In Pittsburgh, things unraveled extremely fast for Pitt and they were never able to get anything going. All was not lost however as their offensive problems resulted in enough points for Baltimore to push the total over. 3-1 you'll take and like.
In hindsight, Pittsburgh looks and feels quite forced. Sky high on the team before the season, they were going up against a team I was pretty high on. To me, gambling on sports comes down to two basic things: A) Identify teams that will present value either betting on or against and B) Picking the right spots to bet on or against said teams. Looking back, taking the Steelers on the road against a team as talented as the Ravens, in week 1, getting less than a FG was no bargain and this was a clear case of point B.
Still, heading to 4:00 it was hard not to feel good. The Giants are my favorite team, but arguably have been my biggest cash cow over the last few years betting both on and against. Despite all the signs leading up to the game that the Skins were live (the line did the rare move through three)...I disregarded it, oversimplifying the game by boiling it down to QB v. QB. The Giants have a lot of holes and the duct-tape patch work was not strong enough. I still see some value in laying less than a FG in that spot, but clearly, I wish I stuck to my original plan and stayed away.
Much more crushing, from a betting standpoint, was what happened in the meantime in Arizona. Despite a miserable first half defensively, the Panthers caught a couple of breaks and were able to go into the half up 7 points. They also went into the 4th quarter with a 7 point lead and with every ticking second it was starting to look like the biggest play of the week was money in the bank. Arizona had the ball on their own 10 yard line with just 13 minutes remaining....2 minutes later they hooked up on a 70-yard TD pass to tie the game with 11 minutes. This was basically the only danger of not winning the bet as had they just been forced to use a lot of clock, the game would very likely end up being decided by a FG. With 7 minutes left, even having stalled out, Carolina was about to punt from the Arizona 47 and presumably would either pin them deep, or worst-case, give up a touchback. A lousy punt, followed by worse tackling, and 89 yards later and rookie Patrick Peterson blew the cover. Still, Cam Newton drove the ball down to the Arizona 6 with just over a minute remaining. A 4th and 5 pass to Mike Goodson resulted, painstakingly, a yard short.
There are a couple ways to look back at the game - I felt the first half was dominated by the Cardinals and we were very fortunate to be in such good shape. Still, it's hard to look back at the 70 yard TD pass followed by an extremely improbable 89 yard punt return and not feel sick about it. Cam Newton ended up throwing for 422 yards and both teams averaged over 7 yards per play. Tough beat on a game that shifted from extremely good fortune to extremely bad fortune from the first half to the second.
The Jets pick I think was a bit of a tilt play. I liked the Jets to win the game and said that if they were laying 3-4 I'd be all over them. 6 was clearly too many points though and the value was squarely on the Cowboys. I think I made a big mistake in the game where I wasn't looking for value, I was looking for a winner. Anytime you start doing that you know you are pressing and should not be betting. Bad decision on my part.
Last night I'm glad I stayed away from the Pats game. Coming off some rough losses it was hard to sit on the sidelines there but the bottom line is it played out about how I thought it would - the value was on the Fins, but the Pats were just too good. I did exactly what I should have done for the Jets game.
As for Denver, I think it was a mixed bag of a cap. The Broncos injury luck got no better as they had a number of guys who ended up getting dinged up. Run DMC made me look awfully foolish as he did whatever he wanted when given any type of space to work with. I did think that Jason Campbell proved incapable of backing on the road at a short price however. The biggest thing though, to me, was the thing that scared me - the Raiders front-seven outplayed the Broncos offensive line badly. Orton faced a ton of pressure all night and Moreno had absolutely zero chance anytime he was handed the ball. The Raiders secondary looked as weak can be. Maybe a touch of sour grapes, but I really think people are still underrating how fortunate the Raiders were last night. A) Playing with a lead was the only way they stood a chance last night. B) The blocked punt was huge for them. C) They hit a 63-yard FG. I'm not going to go overboard on the importance of the 63-yd FG in a game decided by three points since clearly the Raiders defense would've been playing differently if up 7 and not 10 late. Still, it's hard to ignore the flukey nature of hitting such a kick.
Overall, the bottom line is this - the Panthers win that game and things may change a bit...might have felt less inclined to force the Jets and either way it would've done wonders to the bankroll keeping out of the red and being in the slight green. And that is why you can't let outcomes affect your betting...you find and play value, don't force action, particularly on these primetime games and never ever chase.
Will hopefully post up game reviews at some point tonight, if not, definitely tomorrow.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
If you're following along you probably get the sense by now that brief is not my strength. That said, watching the Pats-Fins while keeping an eye on an all-out war between Nadal and Djokovic I'm just going to be as simple as possible here.
Last year the Broncos suffered a lot of injuries. I mean, a lot of injuries. Many of them were to key players. It all predictably fell apart for them. Now, the return of all of these players is no guarantee of success. For one, they will be dealing not only with a new coach in John Fox, but a scheme change on defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3. The personnel isn't a guarantee to fit and it is a bit risky to guarantee any type of success for the defense early. Still, there is an ample amount of talent there.
Offensively, I, unlike seemingly everyone else, believe in Knowshon Moreno as a back in for a nice year. He is still tremendously talented and the Broncos line, while somewhat makeshift, isn't without some talent. Kyle Orton is what he is, but the fact is he's a much better quarterback than Jason Campbell and will be playing on his homefield. At wide receiver Brandon Lloyd, for reasons that will remain a mystery, is coming off a beast of a season. Eddie Royal provides an underneath threat and I think losing Jabar Gaffney is addition by subtraction.
As for Oakland, I feel like a lot of people will like them for one reason alone "Run DMC is going to run wild on that terrible Broncos team." And it could happen. But DMC has to do a bit more before he completely wins me over and he had some inredibly huge games against some historically bad defenses (none other than the Broncos to be fair) last year. The Raiders o-line is undergoing a schematic change and it is unclear whether or not they will be a mess to start the season. If they are this one really swings in favor of the team at home, with Elvis Dumervil and the better quarterback. And that, in essence is why I like Denver either way.
Don't underestimate the loss of Nnamdi for the Raiders either, we have no idea what in the world that could do to the Raiders pass defense. Losing Gallery and Miller on top of that is just icing on the cake. The Raiders front-7, their d-line in particular, is the strength of the team...and if they dominate you could see the Raiders pulling it out, especially if their blazing fast WR's break a couple big ones along the way....but to me, why on Earth do you want to take Jason Campbell on the road for a team missing a few of its best players, a new coach, a new o-line scheme and a steady and prolonged recent history of suckitude with only 3 points to show for it? You might be right, but that is not my cup of tea.
Official play: Broncos -3
Last year the Broncos suffered a lot of injuries. I mean, a lot of injuries. Many of them were to key players. It all predictably fell apart for them. Now, the return of all of these players is no guarantee of success. For one, they will be dealing not only with a new coach in John Fox, but a scheme change on defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3. The personnel isn't a guarantee to fit and it is a bit risky to guarantee any type of success for the defense early. Still, there is an ample amount of talent there.
Offensively, I, unlike seemingly everyone else, believe in Knowshon Moreno as a back in for a nice year. He is still tremendously talented and the Broncos line, while somewhat makeshift, isn't without some talent. Kyle Orton is what he is, but the fact is he's a much better quarterback than Jason Campbell and will be playing on his homefield. At wide receiver Brandon Lloyd, for reasons that will remain a mystery, is coming off a beast of a season. Eddie Royal provides an underneath threat and I think losing Jabar Gaffney is addition by subtraction.
As for Oakland, I feel like a lot of people will like them for one reason alone "Run DMC is going to run wild on that terrible Broncos team." And it could happen. But DMC has to do a bit more before he completely wins me over and he had some inredibly huge games against some historically bad defenses (none other than the Broncos to be fair) last year. The Raiders o-line is undergoing a schematic change and it is unclear whether or not they will be a mess to start the season. If they are this one really swings in favor of the team at home, with Elvis Dumervil and the better quarterback. And that, in essence is why I like Denver either way.
Don't underestimate the loss of Nnamdi for the Raiders either, we have no idea what in the world that could do to the Raiders pass defense. Losing Gallery and Miller on top of that is just icing on the cake. The Raiders front-7, their d-line in particular, is the strength of the team...and if they dominate you could see the Raiders pulling it out, especially if their blazing fast WR's break a couple big ones along the way....but to me, why on Earth do you want to take Jason Campbell on the road for a team missing a few of its best players, a new coach, a new o-line scheme and a steady and prolonged recent history of suckitude with only 3 points to show for it? You might be right, but that is not my cup of tea.
Official play: Broncos -3
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
It's looking like the Patriots will be forced to start a rookie at Right Tackle in Nate Solder. Not entirely sure how healthy Matt Light is at LT either and that is some cause for concern tonight. The rest of the Patriots offense looks pretty much as you remember it from last season. Not quite the pass-happy, we'll hang 40 on you any and every time out team of a few years ago, Brady is still going to do his thing but it is toned down and adjacent to an effective running game.
Defensively, the Pats are a mixed bag. Veterans like Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth and Leigh Bodden have been added to a unit that was so young last year that it wasn't nearly as good as the talent on paper suggested it could be. The secondary is far and away the weak link despite a decent assembly of talent. If Devin McCourty turns the corner from young, playmaking corner who is often getting burnt when not making highlight reel plays to a lockdown defender the defense could make the leap. The strength of the unit comes at the linebacker position where Jerod mayo is rapidly turning into one of, if not the best, middle linebackers in the sport. Alongside him, Brandon Spikes can be awful in coverage, but crushes running backs.
Not sure I have the firmest grasp on the Patriots this year but it's hard not to see all signs pointing toward another season of double-digit wins.
The Miami Dolphins aren't the least talented team in the NFL. They do however look like a team that might be just a few small steps from coming apart at the seams. For one, they have a lame duck coach. Secondly, they have a quarterback who did everything he could last year to prove that he, to be frank, sucks. Third, and the cause of most of the turmoil in Miami this offeseason, is the new ownerships apparent obsession with making the team flashier. Nothing makes that more apparent than the offseason move to bring in Reggie Bush of all people. To bring some grind-it-out-ness to Bush's flash they selected big back Dan Thomas out of Kansas State. You may or may not know how much I have hated on Thomas for some time now, so it has not broken my heart to hear of all his struggled in the pre-season. Amazingly, it appears, in 2011, that the Dolphins will be forced to use Reggie Bush as their main back.
Defensively, the Dolphins might not be the scariest team in the league but they are quite talented. Cameron Wake is as good as advertised. Karlos Dansby is an elite linebacker. By way of Randy Starks the D-Line holds its own and the secondary grades out as one of the best in the NFL.
Overall, I just can't get a good enough grasp on this game to place a bet. The value seems to lie in Miami with a solid o-line, good defense, at home, catching a full touchdown. On the other hand, I don't see them being able to run the ball which means you're relying on Chad Henne to improve (possible) and a solid defense to hold Tom Brady down enough. It's just playing with fire and I don't like it.
Defensively, the Pats are a mixed bag. Veterans like Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth and Leigh Bodden have been added to a unit that was so young last year that it wasn't nearly as good as the talent on paper suggested it could be. The secondary is far and away the weak link despite a decent assembly of talent. If Devin McCourty turns the corner from young, playmaking corner who is often getting burnt when not making highlight reel plays to a lockdown defender the defense could make the leap. The strength of the unit comes at the linebacker position where Jerod mayo is rapidly turning into one of, if not the best, middle linebackers in the sport. Alongside him, Brandon Spikes can be awful in coverage, but crushes running backs.
Not sure I have the firmest grasp on the Patriots this year but it's hard not to see all signs pointing toward another season of double-digit wins.
The Miami Dolphins aren't the least talented team in the NFL. They do however look like a team that might be just a few small steps from coming apart at the seams. For one, they have a lame duck coach. Secondly, they have a quarterback who did everything he could last year to prove that he, to be frank, sucks. Third, and the cause of most of the turmoil in Miami this offeseason, is the new ownerships apparent obsession with making the team flashier. Nothing makes that more apparent than the offseason move to bring in Reggie Bush of all people. To bring some grind-it-out-ness to Bush's flash they selected big back Dan Thomas out of Kansas State. You may or may not know how much I have hated on Thomas for some time now, so it has not broken my heart to hear of all his struggled in the pre-season. Amazingly, it appears, in 2011, that the Dolphins will be forced to use Reggie Bush as their main back.
Defensively, the Dolphins might not be the scariest team in the league but they are quite talented. Cameron Wake is as good as advertised. Karlos Dansby is an elite linebacker. By way of Randy Starks the D-Line holds its own and the secondary grades out as one of the best in the NFL.
Overall, I just can't get a good enough grasp on this game to place a bet. The value seems to lie in Miami with a solid o-line, good defense, at home, catching a full touchdown. On the other hand, I don't see them being able to run the ball which means you're relying on Chad Henne to improve (possible) and a solid defense to hold Tom Brady down enough. It's just playing with fire and I don't like it.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys
Going to keep this relatively simple: The Cowboys are going to be a lot more dangerous on offense this year than they were last, now that they are healthy. As usual, they bolster a thin offensive line, but for now it should be solid enough. Felix Jones, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant combine to form a dangerous trio of offensive playmakers and Tony Romo is more than capable of utilizing these guys to form a potent offense. The question you have to ask yourself here is this: Is it likely that tonight this unit is ready to take on the task that is the New York Jets defense? My answer to that would be no.
On the other end of the field the Cowboys defense is a bit tricky to gauge. There is some talent in the front-seven, but not overwhelmingly so. Demarcus Ware is as good of a defensive player as there is in the league, but after him there really isn't anyone you are scared of. With a brilliant offensive line, a powerful young RB, astute, improving young QB with some receiving weapons....this is exactly the type of cohesive unit the Cowboys and their new defensive schemes want no part of early in the season.
The Jets are now laying 6 points, which I am not entirely comfortable with against an offense that is as explosive as the Cowboys and with Demarcus Ware on the other side. That said, Revis Island should keep one of Austin/Bryant locked up and the other will need Romo to be on to avoid Cromartie from making some plays. Leaning Jets, will make another post by 15 minutes to kick if I decide to make it official.
3-1 start to the day, let's sweep the board getting both my favorite team (Giants) and today's best bet (Panthers) home.
On the other end of the field the Cowboys defense is a bit tricky to gauge. There is some talent in the front-seven, but not overwhelmingly so. Demarcus Ware is as good of a defensive player as there is in the league, but after him there really isn't anyone you are scared of. With a brilliant offensive line, a powerful young RB, astute, improving young QB with some receiving weapons....this is exactly the type of cohesive unit the Cowboys and their new defensive schemes want no part of early in the season.
The Jets are now laying 6 points, which I am not entirely comfortable with against an offense that is as explosive as the Cowboys and with Demarcus Ware on the other side. That said, Revis Island should keep one of Austin/Bryant locked up and the other will need Romo to be on to avoid Cromartie from making some plays. Leaning Jets, will make another post by 15 minutes to kick if I decide to make it official.
3-1 start to the day, let's sweep the board getting both my favorite team (Giants) and today's best bet (Panthers) home.
Selections
Pittsburgh +1
Pittsburgh/Baltimore over 36
Pittsburgh's offense should open up this season in my opinion. Expect both teams to struggle to establish a run game, but both secondaries are very beatable, we have two very capable quarterbacks and a plethora of weapons at receiver. I think the Pittsburgh/Baltimore rivalry is going to take on a bit of a new shape this season.
Giants -2.5
Was seriously not expecting to bet this game, but the injuries are starting to get blown a bit out of proportion. When you boil it down to Eli Manning vs. Rex Grossman and see less than a field goal's worth of chalk, I think the Giants become a play. I'm expecting Tuck to go out there and the Giants D-Line should still hold a considerable advantage over the Washington O-Line.
Panthers +7 2 units
103 degrees out there today. Feel I've exhausted this a bit, don't always trust public perception, look at the rosters and decide for yourself who really has the better team here. Hopefully Cam Newton avoids a rookie nightmare, I'm thinking the ground game keeps them in it and it won't surprise me if they win outright. Favorite play on the board so we're doubling down.
Bengals +6.5
Similar case to the Panthers game, I just think the Browns are being overrated. Giving the Bengals a significantly lesser chance of winning outright than Carolina, but think they are going to be better than everyone thinks. I don't see an 0-16 team here like everyone is projecting, I think more like 5-11, with the Browns being in a very similar boat, making 6.5 simply too much.
Texans -9
Won't see me laying the wood with this many points too often this season I can assure you of that. I think that there are enough people out there still thinking that the Colts are going to be game with name guys like Addai, Wayne and Clark. Problem is, much of these players success is due to Manning and all of them are on the decline. The Texans I think are for real finally, and I expect an explosion today.
Pittsburgh/Baltimore over 36
Pittsburgh's offense should open up this season in my opinion. Expect both teams to struggle to establish a run game, but both secondaries are very beatable, we have two very capable quarterbacks and a plethora of weapons at receiver. I think the Pittsburgh/Baltimore rivalry is going to take on a bit of a new shape this season.
Giants -2.5
Was seriously not expecting to bet this game, but the injuries are starting to get blown a bit out of proportion. When you boil it down to Eli Manning vs. Rex Grossman and see less than a field goal's worth of chalk, I think the Giants become a play. I'm expecting Tuck to go out there and the Giants D-Line should still hold a considerable advantage over the Washington O-Line.
Panthers +7 2 units
103 degrees out there today. Feel I've exhausted this a bit, don't always trust public perception, look at the rosters and decide for yourself who really has the better team here. Hopefully Cam Newton avoids a rookie nightmare, I'm thinking the ground game keeps them in it and it won't surprise me if they win outright. Favorite play on the board so we're doubling down.
Bengals +6.5
Similar case to the Panthers game, I just think the Browns are being overrated. Giving the Bengals a significantly lesser chance of winning outright than Carolina, but think they are going to be better than everyone thinks. I don't see an 0-16 team here like everyone is projecting, I think more like 5-11, with the Browns being in a very similar boat, making 6.5 simply too much.
Texans -9
Won't see me laying the wood with this many points too often this season I can assure you of that. I think that there are enough people out there still thinking that the Colts are going to be game with name guys like Addai, Wayne and Clark. Problem is, much of these players success is due to Manning and all of them are on the decline. The Texans I think are for real finally, and I expect an explosion today.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Sunday's AFC Card
But first, there is still one more NFC game to finish:
San Fransisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
San Fran -5
O/U 38
For all the turmoil in San Fransisco last year, it won't be easy for any team, I imagine, to have brought in a new coach in the off-season and then endured through the lockout. To then try and install your new system with the lack of two-a-days might leave these teams behind the 8-ball. When your starting quarterback and star wide receiver have not been playing nice in the off-season it probably makes it more difficult of a task, especially with said receiver missing training camp due to injury. That is the task the San Fransisco 49ers face in 2011, fortunately for them, they play in the dregs of the NFL - the NFC West.
Last year the San Fransisco offensive line was bar-none, one of the worst in the entire league. With a quarterback like Alex Smith, this is not a good thing. One thing is for sure though, the line is not exactly lacking in talent, at least when we consider draft position. Last year it started two rookies who predictably struggled. Unfortunately for the line, its best player, Center David Baas is now gone (fled to the Giants). They signed the former Saints center to replace him and while it is a downgrade, you have to assume that further continuity among the rest of the lineman and the further development of last years rookies would tend to predict an improvement this year. If that happens and Alex Smith plays even average football, I'm not so sure that this 49ers team should be taken for granted...when you consider the wealth of talent at the skill positions. They have arguably the games top tight end in Vernon Davis. Michael Crabtree and all his trouble is tremendously skilled and Frank Gore is an exciting playmaker in the run game.
Defensively, the 49ers lost a good deal of talent in the off-season in the form of OLB's Manny Lawson, Takeo Spikes and Travis Laboy. NT Aubrayo Franklin also left as did the rapidly aging CB Nate Clements. Additionally, the mistake that was SS Taylor Mays has finally ended.
Carlos Rodgers replacing Nate Clements offers the possibility of a minor upgrade. Ahmad Brooks finally moving to a starting role should prove worthwhile. And while losing Manny Lawson is certainly not a good thing, if the seventh overall pick, Aldon Smith lives up to his potential there is no reason this unit should feel much of an impact.
Overall, San Fransisco looks like a bit of a mystery bag this year. From a pure talent standpoint they seem arguably the class of their weak division. And even looking at teams outside their division, it's not as if they are lacking playmakers or high draft picks that are supposed to produce. Unfortunately, a new coaching staff might find it mighty challenging turning all that kinetic energy into anything resembling poetry in motion.
On the other end, we have the Seattle Seahawks. Last year the Seahawks marched into the playoffs dubbed "the worst team in playoff history" with their sub-.500 record. Shamelessly, they went out and shocked the New Orleans Saints, and many a football fan. Apparently still unimpressed, the front office still saw fit to rip this team to shreds and start over. Matt Hasselbeck is gone, Tavaris Jackson is in. Sidney Rice and Zach Miller were added in attempt to give him the receiving options to succeed. Unfortunately, Tavaris Jackson remains Tavaris Jackson and the Seahawks offensive line looks like one of the biggest mix-matched units of randomness thrown together in the off-season.
The defensive side of things, fortunately, offers a whole lot more promise than the offense. Brandon Mebane at DT is quietly one of the biggest handfuls in the NFL when healthy and Chris Clemons has had a similarly non-descript solid career. Throw in newly acquired DT's Alan Branch and Jimmy Wilkerson and this looks like a solid enough unit. At linebacker there are a number of question marks though while Aaron Curry didn't exactly set the world on fire as many predicted last year, he shows the promise of a solid developing, young linebacker. If not for Early Thomas, a rookie last year, Seattle's secondary might look like the worst in the league. Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings are guys you have probably heard of, but their success at stopping receivers was borderline unheard of last season. Thomas, however, looks like a guy who very well could blossom into one of the leagues very best safeties. I'm not sure what kind of stats he ended up with last season but in the pieces that I saw of Seattle he looked both fluid in coverage and like a speeding bullet in tagging incoming offensive players while patrollling the defensive backfield for Seattle. If not for Thomas, Seattle may well have had one of the most historically horrific secondaries ever assembled last year.
Overall, looking at the game as a whole it is hard to come to any conclusion that doesn't ultimately involve San Fransisco winning. Unless you're a Tavaris Jackson fan, and there are literally zero good reasons for that, it just doesn't appear that Seattle has any type of pulse offensively....especially when you consider facing off against a pretty solid 49ers defense. If Alex Smith can play even average football, and the offensive line shows any type of progress, it's hard not to envision the 49ers conquering the Seahawks here and probably resulting in a cover, barring some type of late game Tavaris Jackson backdoor heroics.
San Fransisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
San Fran -5
O/U 38
For all the turmoil in San Fransisco last year, it won't be easy for any team, I imagine, to have brought in a new coach in the off-season and then endured through the lockout. To then try and install your new system with the lack of two-a-days might leave these teams behind the 8-ball. When your starting quarterback and star wide receiver have not been playing nice in the off-season it probably makes it more difficult of a task, especially with said receiver missing training camp due to injury. That is the task the San Fransisco 49ers face in 2011, fortunately for them, they play in the dregs of the NFL - the NFC West.
Last year the San Fransisco offensive line was bar-none, one of the worst in the entire league. With a quarterback like Alex Smith, this is not a good thing. One thing is for sure though, the line is not exactly lacking in talent, at least when we consider draft position. Last year it started two rookies who predictably struggled. Unfortunately for the line, its best player, Center David Baas is now gone (fled to the Giants). They signed the former Saints center to replace him and while it is a downgrade, you have to assume that further continuity among the rest of the lineman and the further development of last years rookies would tend to predict an improvement this year. If that happens and Alex Smith plays even average football, I'm not so sure that this 49ers team should be taken for granted...when you consider the wealth of talent at the skill positions. They have arguably the games top tight end in Vernon Davis. Michael Crabtree and all his trouble is tremendously skilled and Frank Gore is an exciting playmaker in the run game.
Defensively, the 49ers lost a good deal of talent in the off-season in the form of OLB's Manny Lawson, Takeo Spikes and Travis Laboy. NT Aubrayo Franklin also left as did the rapidly aging CB Nate Clements. Additionally, the mistake that was SS Taylor Mays has finally ended.
Carlos Rodgers replacing Nate Clements offers the possibility of a minor upgrade. Ahmad Brooks finally moving to a starting role should prove worthwhile. And while losing Manny Lawson is certainly not a good thing, if the seventh overall pick, Aldon Smith lives up to his potential there is no reason this unit should feel much of an impact.
Overall, San Fransisco looks like a bit of a mystery bag this year. From a pure talent standpoint they seem arguably the class of their weak division. And even looking at teams outside their division, it's not as if they are lacking playmakers or high draft picks that are supposed to produce. Unfortunately, a new coaching staff might find it mighty challenging turning all that kinetic energy into anything resembling poetry in motion.
On the other end, we have the Seattle Seahawks. Last year the Seahawks marched into the playoffs dubbed "the worst team in playoff history" with their sub-.500 record. Shamelessly, they went out and shocked the New Orleans Saints, and many a football fan. Apparently still unimpressed, the front office still saw fit to rip this team to shreds and start over. Matt Hasselbeck is gone, Tavaris Jackson is in. Sidney Rice and Zach Miller were added in attempt to give him the receiving options to succeed. Unfortunately, Tavaris Jackson remains Tavaris Jackson and the Seahawks offensive line looks like one of the biggest mix-matched units of randomness thrown together in the off-season.
The defensive side of things, fortunately, offers a whole lot more promise than the offense. Brandon Mebane at DT is quietly one of the biggest handfuls in the NFL when healthy and Chris Clemons has had a similarly non-descript solid career. Throw in newly acquired DT's Alan Branch and Jimmy Wilkerson and this looks like a solid enough unit. At linebacker there are a number of question marks though while Aaron Curry didn't exactly set the world on fire as many predicted last year, he shows the promise of a solid developing, young linebacker. If not for Early Thomas, a rookie last year, Seattle's secondary might look like the worst in the league. Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings are guys you have probably heard of, but their success at stopping receivers was borderline unheard of last season. Thomas, however, looks like a guy who very well could blossom into one of the leagues very best safeties. I'm not sure what kind of stats he ended up with last season but in the pieces that I saw of Seattle he looked both fluid in coverage and like a speeding bullet in tagging incoming offensive players while patrollling the defensive backfield for Seattle. If not for Thomas, Seattle may well have had one of the most historically horrific secondaries ever assembled last year.
Overall, looking at the game as a whole it is hard to come to any conclusion that doesn't ultimately involve San Fransisco winning. Unless you're a Tavaris Jackson fan, and there are literally zero good reasons for that, it just doesn't appear that Seattle has any type of pulse offensively....especially when you consider facing off against a pretty solid 49ers defense. If Alex Smith can play even average football, and the offensive line shows any type of progress, it's hard not to envision the 49ers conquering the Seahawks here and probably resulting in a cover, barring some type of late game Tavaris Jackson backdoor heroics.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens -1
O/U 36
Perhaps billed as the best game of the week, one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries looks on paper like another potential classic.
Three straight years of Pittsburgh #1, Baltimore #2 among countless FG-decided, injury-laden battles has to hurt to any Ravens player or fan at this point. Doubtless to me, this season has all the makings of a repeat of history.
Perhaps billed as the best game of the week, one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries looks on paper like another potential classic.
Three straight years of Pittsburgh #1, Baltimore #2 among countless FG-decided, injury-laden battles has to hurt to any Ravens player or fan at this point. Doubtless to me, this season has all the makings of a repeat of history.
Pittsburgh, to me, is the NFL's safest bet this season. Consider all that went on last year in the Steel City. Lead man Ben Roethlisberger amid all types of off-season off the field, in the bathroom, drama was out the first four games. Chazz Batch, miraculously still kicking around the league was forced into action. Dennis Dixon was eventually also used. The team did go 3-1 in Ben's absence with the only loss, a FG deficit to the Baltimore Ravens, but the offense was a disaster in the process. When Big Ben did return, he would do so without the presence of his favorite receiver, Santonio Holmes, who had been shipped out to the Jets for a couple apple pies and a milkshake. He also returned to an offensive line that was the worst assembled in Pittsburgh that I can ever recall. A makeshift cast that wasn't particularly good at anything, most of running back Rashard Mendenhall's time was spent grinding out short-runs with little to no room, often breaking a hand tackle, spinning off another only to fall forward for a 3 yard gain. When holes did open up for Mendenhall he flashed the ability of some of the league's best running backs. Mendenhall, in my opinion, is perhaps the league's most underrated player. A grinding back when need be, I think people underrate his big play ability since it was so rare for him to even find the open field last year. The same offensive line, in large part, will return this year. Anchored but a young stud Center, and with the old addage that offensive lines almost always improve the longer they play together as a cohesive unit and with the confidence that one of the absolute best front offices in football wouldn't put out another unit as weak as last year's version, I have a funny feeling that Mendenhall makes his mark on the league this year. As for Big Ben, the emergence of playmaking WR Mike Wallace is going to make him soon forget about Santonio Holmes. Wallace is fast, elusive in the open field and nearly impossible to stick with deep. On the other side Hines Ward does appear to finally be feeling the wear and tear of years of possession receiving over the middle and laying out TE-quality run blocking. Emmanuel Sanders is a young receiver with good speed who might be on the verge of breaking out however and Heath Miller remains a steady third down and red zone target.
If the Pittsburgh offense advances as far forward as I believe they will this year, if the defense remains as strong they would look like potentially a 13+ win team. After all, did I mention that they ended last season, despite all the turmoil and holes, 12-4, before making a losing appearance in the super bowl? The defense remains largely the same, perhaps a touch more cohesive and certainly a touch longer in the tooth. The front-seven are an impossible unit to run on. A lot has been made about polarizing strong safety Troy Polamalu being overrated. Long termed an out-of-place "playmaker" sides are split on how good the long-haired freak is. One thing is certain, the Steelers defense has performed better when he is in the lineup over the past few seasons. The biggest weakness on the team outside of the offensive line is clearly at the cornerback position. Exposed by the Patriots time and again, if there is a way to beat this defense it's by earning your quarterback enough time before your wideouts inevitably gain separation on a group of corners who are physical but not that fleet of foot. Still, the Steelers have a system and they seem reluctant to stray from it but splurging on a high-priced, talented corner capable of covering the leagues better receivers. It may come back to haunt them at some point in the playoffs, but they still look like a 12 win team at the least this year.
Baltimore on the other hand is a bit tricky to pick. The jury is still out a bit on quarterback Joe Flacco. This year sure seems like make or break for the tall big-armed QB. Each year he has seemingly done enough to show promise, but has yet to truly emerge past anything better than "solid." The Ravens went out last year and got him Anquan Boldin, only for Boldin to have a disappointing season. This year they made, in my eyes, a shrewd move, stealing away Lee Evans out of exile in Buffalo. Living in Buffalo myself I have watched a lot of Bills games over the past few years and I don't think anyone outside of this area has any idea just how good Lee Evans is. Evans isn't the best receiver in the league by any stretch, what he is however, is a polished burner, one of the league's best deep threats...who hasn't played with a strong armed quarterback capable of airing it out since the historic days of JP Losman. Admittedly, Evans is now 30, doesn't appear quite as fast as he once was and to be honest we don't know how much his suffering numbers were to blame on the offense he's played in or simple attrition from age. The one thing Joe Flacco undoubtedly can do however, is throw the deep ball. With zero true deep threats last year, and Evans replacing possession receiver TJ Houshyourmama, the offense looks much more structured for success in the passing game this season.
Defensively, I actually worry more about Baltimore. I know that goes against any and everything we know about the Ravens, but it is hard not to notice how old this group is getting. Terrell Suggs openly stated he was happy that they have a new defensive coordinator this year and while a lot of people are seeing that as a positive it sounds to me a bit more like someone grasping for straws.
Overall, I like Pittsburgh here. I simply believe that they will get the job done on the road, however, I do think Baltimore and their new look passing game will hook up on enough big plays to make things tough on Pitt. Two defenses slipping a touch and two offenses poised for more, I think the 36 is a gift for over bettors. Baltimore just is the team with a lot more question marks, along the offensive line, in the secondary and even at how exactly they will manage to improve their pass rush over last year.
Kansas City vs. Buffalo
Kansas City -5.5
O/U 39.5
What do you make of the Buffalo Bills? Here is the short-cutted version. They have a fairly untalented quarterback who is a solid fit in Chan Gailey's QB-friendly system. He played well enough to win games last year if he had a solid defense opposite him, the Bills unfortunately did not, and while they did string together some late season wins last year they weren't exactly against top competition and they didn't exactly blow the doors off the hinges. At running back that have an interesting duo in solid veteran Fred Jackson and a flashy young speedster who hasn't quite figured it out yet in CJ Spiller. I'm surprised how little attention Spiller seems to be receiving, both from the national media outlets and even here in Buffalo, easily the Bills most dynamic playmaker, the back has the capability of breaking it to the crib everytime he touches it - a skillset rarely seen out in Orchard Park in some time. And yet, there isn't much talk of maximizing his touches. You get the sense either they're keeping him a secret until the actual season starts or he might be a poor man's version of Reggie Bush. Either way, if the offense is going to become dangerous it's going to be behind him and no one else. Make what you want to Steve Johnson's breakout season last, but repeating the numbers he put up is going to prove tremendously difficult. Last year he was the unknown quantity and teams focused in on stopping deep-threat Lee Evans. With Evans gone, Johnson is unquestionably the guy defensive coordinators will be gameplanning to stop and many a talented receiver has trended downward under these circumstances. David Nelson is an intriguing unknown talent on the opposite end of the field and the Bills will need him to step up in a similar fashion to how Johnson did last year if Fitzpatrick is going to come close to repeating his league average numbers of a year ago.
Defensively the Bills actually possess some upside. A year ago you could run up the gut on them like a hot knife through butter. It was almost comical to watch as every HB Dive seemed to go for huge chunks and there was simply no end to it. Rookie DT Marcel Dareus could be the medicine for that. The front-seven looks a lot better than it did a year ago, especially if Shawne Merriman can stay healthy and continue the momentum he has built up in the pre-season. The secondary remains talented and you have to think overall that this unit is improved. With all that is going on in Miami I think the Bills look like a decent bet to win 6, maybe 7, and possibly 8 games this year. Facing a Kansas City team starting a marginal quarterback with a cracked rib, even on the road doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.
As for that team in Kansas City...first of all, I loved Kansas City last year, betting them early and often and reaping the benefits. But to label their schedule last year as soft is understating the obvious. Everything broke right for them last year and this year it doesn't look the same on paper. Additionally, they will be dealing with the loss of their offensive coordinator, Charlie Weiss. The offensive line suffered some losses, there are some new but uninspiring WR's in town and the QB is a big question mark.
Defensively, the Chiefs were very tough to pass on last year, to beat them, you simply had to run the football. They brought in new NT Kelly Gregg which should alleviate some of those woes. There are a plethora of talented front-seven players with none better than Tamba Hali who is about as good as any player in the NFL at getting to the quarterback. Expect Kansas City to do their best Pittsburgh/Baltimore impression this year and try to squeak out close games behind stout defense and some big plays from Charles and Bowe. If the defense can't find a way to improve its performance against the run however, they might be in for a long season.
Overall, I want to feel that there is value on the Bills here. 5.5 is nothing to sneeze at in what could be a low scoring game. You have to ask yourself if you can really feel at all comfortable backing a team with a QB as uninspiring at Matt Cassel, with cracked ribs and lay 5.5. We just saw on Thursday how in the NFL, laying any more than 3 points is playing with fire unless you think a team will lay over the other. I'm not convinced that we know that the Chiefs lay over the Bills...on the other hand, I'm not sure how inclined I feel to back Fitzpatrick and a bunch of question marks at Arrowhead Stadium in the season opener. Will make a decision here by morning...
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Texans -9
O/U 43.5
This year is finally the year that the Colts will fall apart. Before every season you hear someone predicting that it will all come tumbling down and inevitably Peyton Manning goes out and proves them wrong. At last, it doesn't appear that Manning will be suiting up anytime soon, if at all.
Enter Kerry Collins, with a suspect offensive line. Make no mistake about it, Peyton Manning, among all of his tantalizing skills, might do one thing better than the rest - avoid the sack. A product of both quarterback awareness and offensive line play, anyone who has watched Manning over the years has to look on in amazement at how a guy as slow of foot as he is can seemingly avoid each and every flying missile while remaining in the pocket to set up a throw. This isn't Mike Vick pulling a "Madden" and running backwards ten yards with the turbo held down, then rushing crossfield before either taking off or hitting a wide open receiver who has long gassed his coverage and broken off his route like a backyard game...this is pure quarterbacking at its finest. And Kerry Collins, despite a wonderful arm, might just be the literal antithesis of all this. Like a man wearing cement blocks on his feet, Kerry Collins couldn't avoid a defensive end in a walker. Having watched him for years, there is no doubt in my mind what happens when Collins drops back to pass. A) He gets good protection, has time to scan the field, locate an open spot or receiver, set his feet, unleash a tightrope that hits his guy right in the numbers for the first down or B) He feels a pass-rush and either falls down or tries to get rid of it in what all too often results in a wobbling duck floating into the hands of a fortunate defender.
With a bunch of running backs that lack big-play ability. An aging former superstar possession receiver and a bunch of injury prone wideouts with marginal ability as is, I think we are about to see the proverbial wheels falling off the tank that has been the Colts offense for the past, what, ten years? And as many a prognosticator was all too happy to point out over the years, if and when that ever happened, the defense wouldn't be there to fix-a-flat. And it's still not. I really think the Colts are going to end up as one of the NFL's worst teams this season.
Speaking of analysts constantly predicting a change in a teams level of play only to be wrong, wrong again and wrong again - enter the Houston Texans. Is 2011 finally the long-awaited breakout we have all been hearing about for years now?
We all know about the Texans offense. I'm not going to sit here and make too much of the Arian Foster injury as with all the weapons in the passing game and a dominant offensive line, the difference between him being out there and Derrick Ward/Ben Tate in one single game shouldn't amount to much. The Texans offense, especially against the Colts, is going to score. So what about the defense?
Well the biggest addition to the defense comes in the form of a new coordinator and not one lacking in name recognition - the old ball coach, Wade Philips. A lot of additions have been made to this defense which isn't necessarily any guarantee of success. What is in, in my humble opinion, a guarantee of though - improvement. Last years pass defense was historically bad. Enter Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning.
Apparently, Philips is moving Super Mario Williams to outside linebacker to embody the Demarcus Ware role. I have not yet seen this in action, but would be awfully interested to see if it is effective at all. Regardless, the Texans drafted former Wisconsin DE JJ Watt who looks like the prototype of a 3-4 NFL Defensive End and should be ready to contribute from day 1. With Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody in the middle clogging space, a decent group of linebackers, big improvements in a woeful secondary and an X-factor experiment in Super Mario....the Texans defense is something to watch. If they can keep some injury-prone key offensive cogs healthy and the old ball coach does what I expect him to do with the new and improved defense I think the Houston Texans are A) A LOCK to win the AFC South B) A very good chance of earning a bye alongside Pittsburgh if NE and NYJ hurt each other at all and C) A legitimate Super Bowl Contender.
I know, it almost hurts me to say. Those of you who know me know two things A) I have never bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior and B) Take serious pride in never having bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior. With that said, I'm jumping aboard the hype train this season and thinking a loss to the Steelers in the AFC Conference Championship looks every bit of being right in 2011.
As for tomorrows game, the Texans are extremely playable in my eyes and to me look likely to post the most lopsided score of the day to me.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Browns -6.5
O/U 35.5
We are going to make this analysis a bit abbreviated compared to the rest.
For the Browns, I have always been a Colt McCoy guy. I thought he was highly underrated headed into the draft and was probably the least surprised guy when he was enjoying success last season. That said, he did have more INTs than TDs and it is a bit presumptuous to assume that he will take a large step forward this year. I do love the Browns offensive line and while Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty probably won't break off a ton of big runs, they should continue to provide successful and powerful early down running that should set up McCoy for those short-yardage situations that he is so effective in.
The biggest question surrounding the Browns to me is the defense. Last year Mangini, I believe, was a very underrated Mangenius. No, his defense wasn't brilliant, but they were solid enough to keep the Browns in games. Now switching over to a 4-3, under the direction of former head coach Dick Jauron, I just don't really see much talent on that side of the ball. How they were even league average on defense last year kind of boggles my mind when I look at their roster. There is some talent in the secondary - with Sheldon Brown and youngster Joe Haden forming a very nice duo. Haden looks like a rising talent and it will be interesting to see if he can move forward this year. He draws an intriguing matchup with freak rookie WR AJ Green this week.
Overall, I understand that there are a lot of quiet whispers out there about how this Cleveland Browns team could be sneaky good this season. Unfortunately, I am not exactly sipping the kool-aid here. I don't think they are a terrible team by any stretch, but I also don't think they are playoff-bound by any stretch of the imagination. I think, in fact, it takes a much stronger leap of faith to project them toward the top part of the league than the bottom half.
As for the punching bag that is the Bengals...I'll be honest, I've been an Andy Dalton hater for years now. I seriously thought the guy was a hack. I can at least admit this much though: my college football track record is a whole heckuvalot spottier than my NFL track record, and Andy Dalton cost me a pretty penny over the years. Additionally, while Cincy is everyone's favorite punching bag, destined to be the worst team in the history of professional sports according to most - I personally don't know that he found the worst spot ever to land a rookie starting gig. The offensive line is a lot better than you've been told. Cedric Benson has legal trouble, but really is the product of said line as is, and when he eventually has to sit it might even be a positive...and Andy Dalton will be forever linked to fellow rookie, WR AJ Green. Green is already a bit of a household name. I'm sure you've listened to all the talk about how skilled the kid is and this and that. I'm only here to laud him with even more praise. He is, without question in my mind, the best prospect at WR I have seen since Calvin Johnson. Ask fantasy football opponents of mine how often I have drafted rookie WR's and the answer is honestly as close to zero as you can imagine, if not zero itself. This year, I drafted AJ Green in both of my own leagues and every single league I drafted in for a friend. I realize the situation isn't Julio Jones ideal...but sometimes talent trumps all else and I'm betting that this kid is capable of doing just that.
Know what else the Bengals have? Solid talent in their defensive front-seven. Carlos Dunlap, Keither Rivers, Ray Malauluga, Manny Lawson, Gene Atkins and Tank Johnson. The cornerbacks are a couple of guys you have heard of - Leon Hall and Nate Clements. More good news in the secondary is that the Roy Williams experiment is over, Reggie Nelson has a starting gig and a former Giants talent who is still sneaky good, Gibril Wilson, will be seeing playing time.
Overall, your buddy thinks the Bengals suck, the guy you know who just flew out to Vegas to get wasted and rock the books thinks the Bengals suck. Professional NFL analysts think the Bengals suck and honestly, I'd be lying if I said any different than Vegas itself, probably thinks the Bengals suck. What I am here to say to you is this - the Bengals are the type of team I love. From a talent-level standpoint, I honestly don't think they are much worse off than the Detroit Lions. They certainly don't have a game-changer like Suh on the defense...what they do have is some underrated talent....now the problem here is that there will be a mega-reliance on a rookie QB with a limited skill-set, whose main weapon is a rookie at a position that almost never produces in year one. And what I am recommending is that you disregard all of that, take your cash and throw it directly in the direction of the oncoming wind, and boldly, tell your bookie, "Give me the Bengals for a unit." Do that tomorrow and we will be friends for this season, through thick and thin.
With just the Titans and Jaguars left for the AFC card, I figure I might as well post this. That plus the Vikings/Chargers to come tomorrow morning, along with an official post of official selections that I will track all season long.
There will be a Jets/Cowboys post. I would like to have it up before the 1 o'clocks but in all likelihood it will be posted sometime before 4 o'clock. I can honestly say that I am unsure yet of whether I will be recommending a play or a sit-tight.
Monday, with two games, I will unfortunately not be out of work until 3....I will definitely post prior to kick and likely will have, at the very least, the first game posted by 6.
Next week will certainly be a lot more organized, slightly less lengthy, and certainly more edited. Thanks for hanging through the typos and non-sensical remarks, I promise that future posts will be covered with a more fine-toothed comb.
What do you make of the Buffalo Bills? Here is the short-cutted version. They have a fairly untalented quarterback who is a solid fit in Chan Gailey's QB-friendly system. He played well enough to win games last year if he had a solid defense opposite him, the Bills unfortunately did not, and while they did string together some late season wins last year they weren't exactly against top competition and they didn't exactly blow the doors off the hinges. At running back that have an interesting duo in solid veteran Fred Jackson and a flashy young speedster who hasn't quite figured it out yet in CJ Spiller. I'm surprised how little attention Spiller seems to be receiving, both from the national media outlets and even here in Buffalo, easily the Bills most dynamic playmaker, the back has the capability of breaking it to the crib everytime he touches it - a skillset rarely seen out in Orchard Park in some time. And yet, there isn't much talk of maximizing his touches. You get the sense either they're keeping him a secret until the actual season starts or he might be a poor man's version of Reggie Bush. Either way, if the offense is going to become dangerous it's going to be behind him and no one else. Make what you want to Steve Johnson's breakout season last, but repeating the numbers he put up is going to prove tremendously difficult. Last year he was the unknown quantity and teams focused in on stopping deep-threat Lee Evans. With Evans gone, Johnson is unquestionably the guy defensive coordinators will be gameplanning to stop and many a talented receiver has trended downward under these circumstances. David Nelson is an intriguing unknown talent on the opposite end of the field and the Bills will need him to step up in a similar fashion to how Johnson did last year if Fitzpatrick is going to come close to repeating his league average numbers of a year ago.
Defensively the Bills actually possess some upside. A year ago you could run up the gut on them like a hot knife through butter. It was almost comical to watch as every HB Dive seemed to go for huge chunks and there was simply no end to it. Rookie DT Marcel Dareus could be the medicine for that. The front-seven looks a lot better than it did a year ago, especially if Shawne Merriman can stay healthy and continue the momentum he has built up in the pre-season. The secondary remains talented and you have to think overall that this unit is improved. With all that is going on in Miami I think the Bills look like a decent bet to win 6, maybe 7, and possibly 8 games this year. Facing a Kansas City team starting a marginal quarterback with a cracked rib, even on the road doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.
As for that team in Kansas City...first of all, I loved Kansas City last year, betting them early and often and reaping the benefits. But to label their schedule last year as soft is understating the obvious. Everything broke right for them last year and this year it doesn't look the same on paper. Additionally, they will be dealing with the loss of their offensive coordinator, Charlie Weiss. The offensive line suffered some losses, there are some new but uninspiring WR's in town and the QB is a big question mark.
Defensively, the Chiefs were very tough to pass on last year, to beat them, you simply had to run the football. They brought in new NT Kelly Gregg which should alleviate some of those woes. There are a plethora of talented front-seven players with none better than Tamba Hali who is about as good as any player in the NFL at getting to the quarterback. Expect Kansas City to do their best Pittsburgh/Baltimore impression this year and try to squeak out close games behind stout defense and some big plays from Charles and Bowe. If the defense can't find a way to improve its performance against the run however, they might be in for a long season.
Overall, I want to feel that there is value on the Bills here. 5.5 is nothing to sneeze at in what could be a low scoring game. You have to ask yourself if you can really feel at all comfortable backing a team with a QB as uninspiring at Matt Cassel, with cracked ribs and lay 5.5. We just saw on Thursday how in the NFL, laying any more than 3 points is playing with fire unless you think a team will lay over the other. I'm not convinced that we know that the Chiefs lay over the Bills...on the other hand, I'm not sure how inclined I feel to back Fitzpatrick and a bunch of question marks at Arrowhead Stadium in the season opener. Will make a decision here by morning...
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Texans -9
O/U 43.5
This year is finally the year that the Colts will fall apart. Before every season you hear someone predicting that it will all come tumbling down and inevitably Peyton Manning goes out and proves them wrong. At last, it doesn't appear that Manning will be suiting up anytime soon, if at all.
Enter Kerry Collins, with a suspect offensive line. Make no mistake about it, Peyton Manning, among all of his tantalizing skills, might do one thing better than the rest - avoid the sack. A product of both quarterback awareness and offensive line play, anyone who has watched Manning over the years has to look on in amazement at how a guy as slow of foot as he is can seemingly avoid each and every flying missile while remaining in the pocket to set up a throw. This isn't Mike Vick pulling a "Madden" and running backwards ten yards with the turbo held down, then rushing crossfield before either taking off or hitting a wide open receiver who has long gassed his coverage and broken off his route like a backyard game...this is pure quarterbacking at its finest. And Kerry Collins, despite a wonderful arm, might just be the literal antithesis of all this. Like a man wearing cement blocks on his feet, Kerry Collins couldn't avoid a defensive end in a walker. Having watched him for years, there is no doubt in my mind what happens when Collins drops back to pass. A) He gets good protection, has time to scan the field, locate an open spot or receiver, set his feet, unleash a tightrope that hits his guy right in the numbers for the first down or B) He feels a pass-rush and either falls down or tries to get rid of it in what all too often results in a wobbling duck floating into the hands of a fortunate defender.
With a bunch of running backs that lack big-play ability. An aging former superstar possession receiver and a bunch of injury prone wideouts with marginal ability as is, I think we are about to see the proverbial wheels falling off the tank that has been the Colts offense for the past, what, ten years? And as many a prognosticator was all too happy to point out over the years, if and when that ever happened, the defense wouldn't be there to fix-a-flat. And it's still not. I really think the Colts are going to end up as one of the NFL's worst teams this season.
Speaking of analysts constantly predicting a change in a teams level of play only to be wrong, wrong again and wrong again - enter the Houston Texans. Is 2011 finally the long-awaited breakout we have all been hearing about for years now?
We all know about the Texans offense. I'm not going to sit here and make too much of the Arian Foster injury as with all the weapons in the passing game and a dominant offensive line, the difference between him being out there and Derrick Ward/Ben Tate in one single game shouldn't amount to much. The Texans offense, especially against the Colts, is going to score. So what about the defense?
Well the biggest addition to the defense comes in the form of a new coordinator and not one lacking in name recognition - the old ball coach, Wade Philips. A lot of additions have been made to this defense which isn't necessarily any guarantee of success. What is in, in my humble opinion, a guarantee of though - improvement. Last years pass defense was historically bad. Enter Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning.
Apparently, Philips is moving Super Mario Williams to outside linebacker to embody the Demarcus Ware role. I have not yet seen this in action, but would be awfully interested to see if it is effective at all. Regardless, the Texans drafted former Wisconsin DE JJ Watt who looks like the prototype of a 3-4 NFL Defensive End and should be ready to contribute from day 1. With Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody in the middle clogging space, a decent group of linebackers, big improvements in a woeful secondary and an X-factor experiment in Super Mario....the Texans defense is something to watch. If they can keep some injury-prone key offensive cogs healthy and the old ball coach does what I expect him to do with the new and improved defense I think the Houston Texans are A) A LOCK to win the AFC South B) A very good chance of earning a bye alongside Pittsburgh if NE and NYJ hurt each other at all and C) A legitimate Super Bowl Contender.
I know, it almost hurts me to say. Those of you who know me know two things A) I have never bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior and B) Take serious pride in never having bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior. With that said, I'm jumping aboard the hype train this season and thinking a loss to the Steelers in the AFC Conference Championship looks every bit of being right in 2011.
As for tomorrows game, the Texans are extremely playable in my eyes and to me look likely to post the most lopsided score of the day to me.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Browns -6.5
O/U 35.5
We are going to make this analysis a bit abbreviated compared to the rest.
For the Browns, I have always been a Colt McCoy guy. I thought he was highly underrated headed into the draft and was probably the least surprised guy when he was enjoying success last season. That said, he did have more INTs than TDs and it is a bit presumptuous to assume that he will take a large step forward this year. I do love the Browns offensive line and while Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty probably won't break off a ton of big runs, they should continue to provide successful and powerful early down running that should set up McCoy for those short-yardage situations that he is so effective in.
The biggest question surrounding the Browns to me is the defense. Last year Mangini, I believe, was a very underrated Mangenius. No, his defense wasn't brilliant, but they were solid enough to keep the Browns in games. Now switching over to a 4-3, under the direction of former head coach Dick Jauron, I just don't really see much talent on that side of the ball. How they were even league average on defense last year kind of boggles my mind when I look at their roster. There is some talent in the secondary - with Sheldon Brown and youngster Joe Haden forming a very nice duo. Haden looks like a rising talent and it will be interesting to see if he can move forward this year. He draws an intriguing matchup with freak rookie WR AJ Green this week.
Overall, I understand that there are a lot of quiet whispers out there about how this Cleveland Browns team could be sneaky good this season. Unfortunately, I am not exactly sipping the kool-aid here. I don't think they are a terrible team by any stretch, but I also don't think they are playoff-bound by any stretch of the imagination. I think, in fact, it takes a much stronger leap of faith to project them toward the top part of the league than the bottom half.
As for the punching bag that is the Bengals...I'll be honest, I've been an Andy Dalton hater for years now. I seriously thought the guy was a hack. I can at least admit this much though: my college football track record is a whole heckuvalot spottier than my NFL track record, and Andy Dalton cost me a pretty penny over the years. Additionally, while Cincy is everyone's favorite punching bag, destined to be the worst team in the history of professional sports according to most - I personally don't know that he found the worst spot ever to land a rookie starting gig. The offensive line is a lot better than you've been told. Cedric Benson has legal trouble, but really is the product of said line as is, and when he eventually has to sit it might even be a positive...and Andy Dalton will be forever linked to fellow rookie, WR AJ Green. Green is already a bit of a household name. I'm sure you've listened to all the talk about how skilled the kid is and this and that. I'm only here to laud him with even more praise. He is, without question in my mind, the best prospect at WR I have seen since Calvin Johnson. Ask fantasy football opponents of mine how often I have drafted rookie WR's and the answer is honestly as close to zero as you can imagine, if not zero itself. This year, I drafted AJ Green in both of my own leagues and every single league I drafted in for a friend. I realize the situation isn't Julio Jones ideal...but sometimes talent trumps all else and I'm betting that this kid is capable of doing just that.
Know what else the Bengals have? Solid talent in their defensive front-seven. Carlos Dunlap, Keither Rivers, Ray Malauluga, Manny Lawson, Gene Atkins and Tank Johnson. The cornerbacks are a couple of guys you have heard of - Leon Hall and Nate Clements. More good news in the secondary is that the Roy Williams experiment is over, Reggie Nelson has a starting gig and a former Giants talent who is still sneaky good, Gibril Wilson, will be seeing playing time.
Overall, your buddy thinks the Bengals suck, the guy you know who just flew out to Vegas to get wasted and rock the books thinks the Bengals suck. Professional NFL analysts think the Bengals suck and honestly, I'd be lying if I said any different than Vegas itself, probably thinks the Bengals suck. What I am here to say to you is this - the Bengals are the type of team I love. From a talent-level standpoint, I honestly don't think they are much worse off than the Detroit Lions. They certainly don't have a game-changer like Suh on the defense...what they do have is some underrated talent....now the problem here is that there will be a mega-reliance on a rookie QB with a limited skill-set, whose main weapon is a rookie at a position that almost never produces in year one. And what I am recommending is that you disregard all of that, take your cash and throw it directly in the direction of the oncoming wind, and boldly, tell your bookie, "Give me the Bengals for a unit." Do that tomorrow and we will be friends for this season, through thick and thin.
With just the Titans and Jaguars left for the AFC card, I figure I might as well post this. That plus the Vikings/Chargers to come tomorrow morning, along with an official post of official selections that I will track all season long.
There will be a Jets/Cowboys post. I would like to have it up before the 1 o'clocks but in all likelihood it will be posted sometime before 4 o'clock. I can honestly say that I am unsure yet of whether I will be recommending a play or a sit-tight.
Monday, with two games, I will unfortunately not be out of work until 3....I will definitely post prior to kick and likely will have, at the very least, the first game posted by 6.
Next week will certainly be a lot more organized, slightly less lengthy, and certainly more edited. Thanks for hanging through the typos and non-sensical remarks, I promise that future posts will be covered with a more fine-toothed comb.
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