Sunday's 4 O'Clock Card

San Fransisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -3
O/U 42.5
This line is giving me fits. It's not that I think the Cowboys shouldn't be -3 here. It is actually exactly what I would expect the line to be set it. The issue I'm having is that why not bump it as usual for Dallas? They could set it at -4 and not have to worry about getting action on Dallas I would think. It seems like they have absolutely no fear of you loading up on Dallas this week. Well, call me a fish because that's exactly what I want to do.
For one, the Cowboys came out and made the Jets defense look so marginal it was comical. The offensive line was not busy creating holes for Felix Jones but it was no matter as Tony Romo was busy charting a pass of Revis Island with unusual success, while making the rest of the secondary look in serious need of a Nnamdi. Clearly, the second half was a different story but a lot of that had to do with Dallas not being able to establish any type of running game. I've said it a million times already but it's extremely difficult to do so against the Jets defense and should not be counted as an indictment against Felix Jones. While San Fransisco's defense comes out of Sunday's game looking like roses, it came against one of the NFL's most lifeless offenses. Still, with Sopoaga clogging the middle and Smith and McDonald at the ends with Patrick Willis cleaning up the mess the Niners are going to be difficult to run on. They had better be able to bring a big pass rush however. As we saw with the Jets the Cowboys don't need to establish a running threat to rack up big chunks of yards through the air. I'm thinking Felix Jones will get untracked a bit and Dallas will again enjoy offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith threw for all of 124 yards against a Seahawks secondary that was historically bad last year. Frank Gore alarmingly didn't have it going much either so the excuses are fairly limited. I really feel Michael Crabtree needs to get healthy fast for this offense to open up because it is predicated around short, conservative timing patterns that expect the receivers to break off big YAC averages. If Smith is smart he will look early and often to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker - tight end Vernon Davis. The Cowboys really have no safeties of linebackers that are capable of covering him. If they are going to limit Davis it is going to be thanks to the front-seven harassing Smith. As we saw against the Jets last week, that is a very serious possibility.
Overall, anything over four would scare me off here I think, but at anything less than 3.5 it's going to be awfully hard for me to avoid. How am I not supposed to think that the Cowboys will win here? They have all the offensive weapons to score plenty on the road and their front-seven is more than capable of making Alex Smith's life a living hell Sunday. I'll take my chances on a FG, anything more and it becomes a substantially more difficult decision.

Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Texans -3
O/U 48
Oh geeze, Vegas trying to get me to fall in love with the biggest sucker bet out, the 3 point road favorite. As you well know, I think very highly of this Texans team. Fortunately, I think I saw enough sneaky-goodness out of Miami to keep me away here.
Offensively, the Texans are dynamic. Last week however, the defense they were going against was Taylor-Made to trounce. Power running and explosive receiving options will give the Colts major problems. For the Dolphins it is a little bit less clear. Last week they simply ran into a buzz-saw in Tom Brady. That and the Vontae Davis injury led to the massacre of Nolan Carroll and things just ballooned out of control. This week they are a bit better equipped. Sean Smith is the best cornerback you've (maybe) never heard of. He'll have his hands full this week but should at least fare better with Andre than most do. They also might fool around and put others on Andre while doubling and have Smith shut down Jones or Water. The bottom line is that the Dolphins still have enough talent in the secondary to make things work and as good as Matt Schaub is, I doubt he has enough weapons, or the guile, to expose Nolan Carroll to that degree. The other obvious issue is cear when you think about how badly Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski scorched the Fins defense. Owen Daniels. He'll be a handful this weekend and Miami will be forced to pick their poison on doubling him or Johnson. My guess is that they'll try to slow down Johnson and it is very likely that Daniels will make them pay in a big way.
On offense, Chad Henne looked a lot better last week than he did at any point last year. He still has the arm to be effective and while I'm not sure I saw a ton of progressions or pocket poise, we still are unsure of how improved the Texans defense is. This will be an interesting test both for Henne and for the Texans defense on the road. Reggie Bush made a lot of nice plays last week but it sounds like Dan Thomas will actually see the field a bit more this week. I don't think that is a positive for Miami THIS week, though it probably is the right move long-term.
Overall I see this game as one between two teams that are currently back-able. The line seems about right. Add it all up and it looks like a stay-away. Hopefully the dynamics of the game will favor one team greatly and we can come back next week and back the other.

New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Patriots -7
O/U 53.5
Wow at that over/under, is this the NFL or the MAC? Pretty odd to see a team go from being 7 point favorites against Adrian Peterson and co. to 7 point dogs the next week.
Say what you will about Donovan McNabb only throwing for 40 yards last weekend but can we really give no credit to San Diego's defense? Holding any QB getting a start for a NFL team to under 50 yards is impressive. Holding Tavaris Jackson or Brodie Croyle to 40 yards would be impressive. Holding Jimmy Clausen to 40 yards would be...eh, OK, so holding any QB other than Jimmy Clausen to that total would be impressive. But I digress - the point is that we are probably going to see something in-between what we saw last week. There is no chance San Diego is going to repeat the performance against Brady, but it is also unlikely that Brady will approach his performance from last week. The problem is, there is a lot of room for being wrong when trying to project in a range between 40 and 500 yards. The over/under being 53.5 probably gives us a hint there though....
Defensively, New England was borderline exposed by Henne last week. I think they match up better against the run with Matthews/Tolbert. Spikes and Mayo are ridiculously good tacklers and I think Bush's speed was the key to finding any type of production. San Diego's game is more power which plays right into New England's wheelhouse. Not exactly a death sentence for a team with Philip Rivers slinging the rock. If Chad Henne went for over 400 against this defense, it's hard not to project similar or better production from Rivers.
Overall my feeling is this - I want no part of laying 7 points to the Chargers. I want no part of figuring out the Chargers. And I want no part of betting against Brady at just about any point spread right now. The over/under of 53.5 makes what looks like an inflated line (7) a lot less significant. Expect these teams to be scoring touchdowns early and often. Gun to my head I'd take the points, but again, I really want no part of either side here.

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Broncos -3.5
O/U 40
Denver really disappointed me Monday night. I felt that I had a strong cap on that game and I waked away feeling like they left a lot of opportunities on the table. At the same time, I think we saw a battle of two really weak teams. You could say a lot of the same things to summarize the Bengals game, with the major difference being that they actually took advantage and won. They won a game they weren't supposed to even be that competitive mind you, while the Broncos lost a game they were supposed to win.
Constantly, in the NFL, I think value comes in betting on the teams no one else wants to. Everyone feels more "safe" when they bet a team like the Pats or the Saints. Teams that will always be in a game, rarely blown out, always capable of mounting comebacks with their dynamic QB's. Unfortunately, Vegas makes you pay a price to back teams like that, while often you are better off picking out teams like these that are certain to be hanging out on the clearance rack all season. It just comes down to picking the right spots...because anytime you take an item off the clearance rack, you take a risk of being the joke of the party.
I say this because I find myself, inexplicably to most, attracted for the second straight week to the Cincinnati Bengals. Monitoring the injuries for the Broncos is of utmost importance here and for that reason I am not going to get too in-depth yet, if I decide it's a play I will.
The shortcut version is this - I think the Raiders are really bad. I think the Bengals are better than perception. As important as QB is, everyone is blinded by just thinking Andy Dalton is a rookie with a weak arm. They still have a decent offensive line, solid run game and a reasonable defense. Denver certainly has more big play threats and Orton is capable of throwing Dalton out of the stadium. But if that doesn't happen, the Bengals have a chance of stealing away here. And get the field goal PLUS the hook is the icing on the cake. At just 3 even it is probably a stay-away. At 3.5 it's awfully tempting. More to come here possibly....

Will also be adding what should be a very in-depth look at the Sunday night game tomorrow. Will hold off until Monday to give what should also be a very in-depth look at that game.