This is a feature of this blog that I intend to take very seriously, it could prove to be the most valuable handicapping tool available here. I would like to write a review of each and every game. I am an "eyes" handicapper at heart, I like to watch a game and draw my own conclusions on what kinds of opponents I expect a team to excel or struggle against. In some cases I will not have seen anything but highlights and will have to simply analyze the statistics. Still, observing exactly what took place in a game can give us a lot of clues later in the season.
Green Bay 42 New Orleans 34
What I Saw - From the very beginning of the game it was obvious that what I called "the meat and potatoes of handicapping this matchup" was in fact just that. Gregg Williams geared up blitz after blitz and besides one early sack (that set up a third-and-long conversion anyway...) Aaron Rodgers simply torched the Saints. That really is understating exactly what he did. It wasn't like he found one mismatch and exposed it. He threw to Jennings. He found Nelson. He did expose Roman Harper and his grey-haired feeble attempts at covering Jermichael Finley. I found myself watching the TV repeatedly saying "Stop blitzing!" (To be fair the aforementioned third-and-long conversion came on the heels of a blitz-induced Jonathan Casillas sack...only for Williams to drop his unit back into coverage on 3rd down for an all-too-easy pickup) For all the blitzing Rodgers ended up being sacked only twice and that is a credit to both his elusive feet and his offensive line. To me, the line was a bigger question mark than people were noticing. Left Tackle Chad Clifton is aging rapidly and underrated guards Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz fled in the offseason. Other than one of the replacements (Lang) early penalties this unit appeared to pick up right where they left off. A last caveat to this discussion is that New Orleans wasn't all that effective at getting to the quarterback last year despite all the blitzing and their best pass-rusher Will Smith was out (and will miss next week as well)...so let's see Green Bay protect Rodgers a bit more before pronouncing the offensive line "just fine."
Reading an article by Gene Wojciechowski on ESPN.com this morning I was struck by his opening line. "First of all, there was no way the Green Bay Packers were going to lose to the New Orleans Saints on Thursday evening." Really Gene? Were we watching the same game? The one that ultimately concluded in a last second goal line stand to prevent what likely would have been an overtime finish? I actually heard a few people say similar things this morning. Make no mistake about it, Green Bay controlled this game from the jump. But I think we are seeing the beginnings of a team that is being overrated and might present value by way of the bet-against down the road. Also, I thought the idea to run the ball with Mark Ingram for the last play of the game was CRIMINAL. Drew Brees was absolutely on fire and looked completely unstoppable. At the very least, the Saints could have split out a couple wide receivers to make Green Bay worry about the Saints passing it. Seeing the big guys coming to the field in the goal line formation had to be music to the ears of the Packers defense which was coming up with absolutely no answers for Brees late. Additionally, Ingram had been stuffed a couple of times earlier in the game when trying to convert on short yardage. When I saw them lined up, right before the snap I said aloud "I can't believe they're going to run it." Inevitably they got stuffed....and the comeback dissolved in the blink of an eye. How might the perceptions of these teams be different if New Orleans punches it in there, converts the two-point conversion and steals away in overtime?
I've also been reading this morning about how James Starks looks better than Ryan Grant. The 17-yard tackle-breaking touchdown run was very nice. Take that away though and I have to wonder why Ryan Grant went all "Where's Waldo" on us for most of the game. He doesn't exactly have breakaway speed but he seemed pretty decisive with the ball in his hands carrying it 9 times for 40 yards. Starks, even with the TD run only had 12 carries for 57 yards and made a completely inexcusable mistake in pass protection nearly getting Rodgers killed by failing to even notice a blitzer on what ended up being the second and final sack of the game for the Saints. I found it odd to see just how many more snaps Starks seemed to get all things considered.
On the other hand, Saints rookie Mark Ingram looked alright carrying the ball, but the story to me was how good Pierre Thomas looked. For a while now, Thomas has been an incredibly efficient running back yet lacks the recognition of a lot of the flashier names in football. Coming off injury he ran hard on 5 carries for 31 yards. Unfortunately, the Saints were forced to air it out 49 times (hey it's 2010 all over again!), Thomas did haul in 4 catches for 37 yards.
The question you have to ask yourself when analyzing these teams down the road is whether what we saw was great offense, horrible defense or some combination of both? The obvious answer there is probably the last option, but I don't know how much of a pass I want to give either of these defensive units.
For the Saints, I really like Patrick Robinson as a young cornerback, but he did not look ready for primetime last night and Rodgers picked on him early and often. Greer and Porter are still very bland and Roman Harper looked to be showing his age more than ever last night. If you're going to blitz as much as the Saints do, without getting to the quarterback at a very high rate, you need a better secondary than this. I saw nothing out of Cameron Jordan that tells me he will be the difference maker and the other rookie that was supposed to bolster their pass rush, linebacker Martez Wilson, was non-existent or didn't see the field as far as I could tell. Keep an eye on those two and Will Smith when he returns, because if these three don't start putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Saints aren't just going to struggle against teams with Aaron Rodgers, they're going to struggle to stop thin air.
The Packers defense is a touch more difficult to analyze. Spotted double-digit leads for most of the game it isn't a complete indictment that one of the league's premier passers kept moving the ball on them. The fact that they buckled down a bit in their own territory and held the Saints to a pair of field goals, as well as stopping them on an important 4th down conversion attempt bodes well. Still, they were only able to get to Brees three times and when they didn't he lit them up to the tune of 8.6 YPA on 65% passing through 49 attempts. Five receivers topped 50 yards for the Saints.
All three of the Green Bay sacks came off the blitz by varying linebackers. Clay Matthews was still a handful, getting to Brees on a couple occasions though failing to record a sack. B.J. Raji was a big part of a couple short-yardage stops and really does command a ton of attention on the inside. All and all I refuse to give the Packers defense a pass. They were spotted a big lead for much of the game but they couldn't stop Brees in a million years, at least until he got into the red zone. They were completely saved by the bell late.
That said, unlike the Saints defense which to me looks basically horrid, at least the Packers have some redeeming qualities. Matthews and Raji still look like a handful and the secondary is talented. The next three weeks the defense will have an awfully good chance to get fat as they face Carolina, Chicago and Denver. When we will start to find out more about this defense is probably during the four games that follow that: @Atlanta, vs. St. Louis, @Minnesota and @San Diego.
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