San Fransisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
San Fran -5
O/U 38
For all the turmoil in San Fransisco last year, it won't be easy for any team, I imagine, to have brought in a new coach in the off-season and then endured through the lockout. To then try and install your new system with the lack of two-a-days might leave these teams behind the 8-ball. When your starting quarterback and star wide receiver have not been playing nice in the off-season it probably makes it more difficult of a task, especially with said receiver missing training camp due to injury. That is the task the San Fransisco 49ers face in 2011, fortunately for them, they play in the dregs of the NFL - the NFC West.
Last year the San Fransisco offensive line was bar-none, one of the worst in the entire league. With a quarterback like Alex Smith, this is not a good thing. One thing is for sure though, the line is not exactly lacking in talent, at least when we consider draft position. Last year it started two rookies who predictably struggled. Unfortunately for the line, its best player, Center David Baas is now gone (fled to the Giants). They signed the former Saints center to replace him and while it is a downgrade, you have to assume that further continuity among the rest of the lineman and the further development of last years rookies would tend to predict an improvement this year. If that happens and Alex Smith plays even average football, I'm not so sure that this 49ers team should be taken for granted...when you consider the wealth of talent at the skill positions. They have arguably the games top tight end in Vernon Davis. Michael Crabtree and all his trouble is tremendously skilled and Frank Gore is an exciting playmaker in the run game.
Defensively, the 49ers lost a good deal of talent in the off-season in the form of OLB's Manny Lawson, Takeo Spikes and Travis Laboy. NT Aubrayo Franklin also left as did the rapidly aging CB Nate Clements. Additionally, the mistake that was SS Taylor Mays has finally ended.
Carlos Rodgers replacing Nate Clements offers the possibility of a minor upgrade. Ahmad Brooks finally moving to a starting role should prove worthwhile. And while losing Manny Lawson is certainly not a good thing, if the seventh overall pick, Aldon Smith lives up to his potential there is no reason this unit should feel much of an impact.
Overall, San Fransisco looks like a bit of a mystery bag this year. From a pure talent standpoint they seem arguably the class of their weak division. And even looking at teams outside their division, it's not as if they are lacking playmakers or high draft picks that are supposed to produce. Unfortunately, a new coaching staff might find it mighty challenging turning all that kinetic energy into anything resembling poetry in motion.
On the other end, we have the Seattle Seahawks. Last year the Seahawks marched into the playoffs dubbed "the worst team in playoff history" with their sub-.500 record. Shamelessly, they went out and shocked the New Orleans Saints, and many a football fan. Apparently still unimpressed, the front office still saw fit to rip this team to shreds and start over. Matt Hasselbeck is gone, Tavaris Jackson is in. Sidney Rice and Zach Miller were added in attempt to give him the receiving options to succeed. Unfortunately, Tavaris Jackson remains Tavaris Jackson and the Seahawks offensive line looks like one of the biggest mix-matched units of randomness thrown together in the off-season.
The defensive side of things, fortunately, offers a whole lot more promise than the offense. Brandon Mebane at DT is quietly one of the biggest handfuls in the NFL when healthy and Chris Clemons has had a similarly non-descript solid career. Throw in newly acquired DT's Alan Branch and Jimmy Wilkerson and this looks like a solid enough unit. At linebacker there are a number of question marks though while Aaron Curry didn't exactly set the world on fire as many predicted last year, he shows the promise of a solid developing, young linebacker. If not for Early Thomas, a rookie last year, Seattle's secondary might look like the worst in the league. Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings are guys you have probably heard of, but their success at stopping receivers was borderline unheard of last season. Thomas, however, looks like a guy who very well could blossom into one of the leagues very best safeties. I'm not sure what kind of stats he ended up with last season but in the pieces that I saw of Seattle he looked both fluid in coverage and like a speeding bullet in tagging incoming offensive players while patrollling the defensive backfield for Seattle. If not for Thomas, Seattle may well have had one of the most historically horrific secondaries ever assembled last year.
Overall, looking at the game as a whole it is hard to come to any conclusion that doesn't ultimately involve San Fransisco winning. Unless you're a Tavaris Jackson fan, and there are literally zero good reasons for that, it just doesn't appear that Seattle has any type of pulse offensively....especially when you consider facing off against a pretty solid 49ers defense. If Alex Smith can play even average football, and the offensive line shows any type of progress, it's hard not to envision the 49ers conquering the Seahawks here and probably resulting in a cover, barring some type of late game Tavaris Jackson backdoor heroics.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens -1
O/U 36
Perhaps billed as the best game of the week, one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries looks on paper like another potential classic.
Three straight years of Pittsburgh #1, Baltimore #2 among countless FG-decided, injury-laden battles has to hurt to any Ravens player or fan at this point. Doubtless to me, this season has all the makings of a repeat of history.
Perhaps billed as the best game of the week, one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries looks on paper like another potential classic.
Three straight years of Pittsburgh #1, Baltimore #2 among countless FG-decided, injury-laden battles has to hurt to any Ravens player or fan at this point. Doubtless to me, this season has all the makings of a repeat of history.
Pittsburgh, to me, is the NFL's safest bet this season. Consider all that went on last year in the Steel City. Lead man Ben Roethlisberger amid all types of off-season off the field, in the bathroom, drama was out the first four games. Chazz Batch, miraculously still kicking around the league was forced into action. Dennis Dixon was eventually also used. The team did go 3-1 in Ben's absence with the only loss, a FG deficit to the Baltimore Ravens, but the offense was a disaster in the process. When Big Ben did return, he would do so without the presence of his favorite receiver, Santonio Holmes, who had been shipped out to the Jets for a couple apple pies and a milkshake. He also returned to an offensive line that was the worst assembled in Pittsburgh that I can ever recall. A makeshift cast that wasn't particularly good at anything, most of running back Rashard Mendenhall's time was spent grinding out short-runs with little to no room, often breaking a hand tackle, spinning off another only to fall forward for a 3 yard gain. When holes did open up for Mendenhall he flashed the ability of some of the league's best running backs. Mendenhall, in my opinion, is perhaps the league's most underrated player. A grinding back when need be, I think people underrate his big play ability since it was so rare for him to even find the open field last year. The same offensive line, in large part, will return this year. Anchored but a young stud Center, and with the old addage that offensive lines almost always improve the longer they play together as a cohesive unit and with the confidence that one of the absolute best front offices in football wouldn't put out another unit as weak as last year's version, I have a funny feeling that Mendenhall makes his mark on the league this year. As for Big Ben, the emergence of playmaking WR Mike Wallace is going to make him soon forget about Santonio Holmes. Wallace is fast, elusive in the open field and nearly impossible to stick with deep. On the other side Hines Ward does appear to finally be feeling the wear and tear of years of possession receiving over the middle and laying out TE-quality run blocking. Emmanuel Sanders is a young receiver with good speed who might be on the verge of breaking out however and Heath Miller remains a steady third down and red zone target.
If the Pittsburgh offense advances as far forward as I believe they will this year, if the defense remains as strong they would look like potentially a 13+ win team. After all, did I mention that they ended last season, despite all the turmoil and holes, 12-4, before making a losing appearance in the super bowl? The defense remains largely the same, perhaps a touch more cohesive and certainly a touch longer in the tooth. The front-seven are an impossible unit to run on. A lot has been made about polarizing strong safety Troy Polamalu being overrated. Long termed an out-of-place "playmaker" sides are split on how good the long-haired freak is. One thing is certain, the Steelers defense has performed better when he is in the lineup over the past few seasons. The biggest weakness on the team outside of the offensive line is clearly at the cornerback position. Exposed by the Patriots time and again, if there is a way to beat this defense it's by earning your quarterback enough time before your wideouts inevitably gain separation on a group of corners who are physical but not that fleet of foot. Still, the Steelers have a system and they seem reluctant to stray from it but splurging on a high-priced, talented corner capable of covering the leagues better receivers. It may come back to haunt them at some point in the playoffs, but they still look like a 12 win team at the least this year.
Baltimore on the other hand is a bit tricky to pick. The jury is still out a bit on quarterback Joe Flacco. This year sure seems like make or break for the tall big-armed QB. Each year he has seemingly done enough to show promise, but has yet to truly emerge past anything better than "solid." The Ravens went out last year and got him Anquan Boldin, only for Boldin to have a disappointing season. This year they made, in my eyes, a shrewd move, stealing away Lee Evans out of exile in Buffalo. Living in Buffalo myself I have watched a lot of Bills games over the past few years and I don't think anyone outside of this area has any idea just how good Lee Evans is. Evans isn't the best receiver in the league by any stretch, what he is however, is a polished burner, one of the league's best deep threats...who hasn't played with a strong armed quarterback capable of airing it out since the historic days of JP Losman. Admittedly, Evans is now 30, doesn't appear quite as fast as he once was and to be honest we don't know how much his suffering numbers were to blame on the offense he's played in or simple attrition from age. The one thing Joe Flacco undoubtedly can do however, is throw the deep ball. With zero true deep threats last year, and Evans replacing possession receiver TJ Houshyourmama, the offense looks much more structured for success in the passing game this season.
Defensively, I actually worry more about Baltimore. I know that goes against any and everything we know about the Ravens, but it is hard not to notice how old this group is getting. Terrell Suggs openly stated he was happy that they have a new defensive coordinator this year and while a lot of people are seeing that as a positive it sounds to me a bit more like someone grasping for straws.
Overall, I like Pittsburgh here. I simply believe that they will get the job done on the road, however, I do think Baltimore and their new look passing game will hook up on enough big plays to make things tough on Pitt. Two defenses slipping a touch and two offenses poised for more, I think the 36 is a gift for over bettors. Baltimore just is the team with a lot more question marks, along the offensive line, in the secondary and even at how exactly they will manage to improve their pass rush over last year.
Kansas City vs. Buffalo
Kansas City -5.5
O/U 39.5
What do you make of the Buffalo Bills? Here is the short-cutted version. They have a fairly untalented quarterback who is a solid fit in Chan Gailey's QB-friendly system. He played well enough to win games last year if he had a solid defense opposite him, the Bills unfortunately did not, and while they did string together some late season wins last year they weren't exactly against top competition and they didn't exactly blow the doors off the hinges. At running back that have an interesting duo in solid veteran Fred Jackson and a flashy young speedster who hasn't quite figured it out yet in CJ Spiller. I'm surprised how little attention Spiller seems to be receiving, both from the national media outlets and even here in Buffalo, easily the Bills most dynamic playmaker, the back has the capability of breaking it to the crib everytime he touches it - a skillset rarely seen out in Orchard Park in some time. And yet, there isn't much talk of maximizing his touches. You get the sense either they're keeping him a secret until the actual season starts or he might be a poor man's version of Reggie Bush. Either way, if the offense is going to become dangerous it's going to be behind him and no one else. Make what you want to Steve Johnson's breakout season last, but repeating the numbers he put up is going to prove tremendously difficult. Last year he was the unknown quantity and teams focused in on stopping deep-threat Lee Evans. With Evans gone, Johnson is unquestionably the guy defensive coordinators will be gameplanning to stop and many a talented receiver has trended downward under these circumstances. David Nelson is an intriguing unknown talent on the opposite end of the field and the Bills will need him to step up in a similar fashion to how Johnson did last year if Fitzpatrick is going to come close to repeating his league average numbers of a year ago.
Defensively the Bills actually possess some upside. A year ago you could run up the gut on them like a hot knife through butter. It was almost comical to watch as every HB Dive seemed to go for huge chunks and there was simply no end to it. Rookie DT Marcel Dareus could be the medicine for that. The front-seven looks a lot better than it did a year ago, especially if Shawne Merriman can stay healthy and continue the momentum he has built up in the pre-season. The secondary remains talented and you have to think overall that this unit is improved. With all that is going on in Miami I think the Bills look like a decent bet to win 6, maybe 7, and possibly 8 games this year. Facing a Kansas City team starting a marginal quarterback with a cracked rib, even on the road doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.
As for that team in Kansas City...first of all, I loved Kansas City last year, betting them early and often and reaping the benefits. But to label their schedule last year as soft is understating the obvious. Everything broke right for them last year and this year it doesn't look the same on paper. Additionally, they will be dealing with the loss of their offensive coordinator, Charlie Weiss. The offensive line suffered some losses, there are some new but uninspiring WR's in town and the QB is a big question mark.
Defensively, the Chiefs were very tough to pass on last year, to beat them, you simply had to run the football. They brought in new NT Kelly Gregg which should alleviate some of those woes. There are a plethora of talented front-seven players with none better than Tamba Hali who is about as good as any player in the NFL at getting to the quarterback. Expect Kansas City to do their best Pittsburgh/Baltimore impression this year and try to squeak out close games behind stout defense and some big plays from Charles and Bowe. If the defense can't find a way to improve its performance against the run however, they might be in for a long season.
Overall, I want to feel that there is value on the Bills here. 5.5 is nothing to sneeze at in what could be a low scoring game. You have to ask yourself if you can really feel at all comfortable backing a team with a QB as uninspiring at Matt Cassel, with cracked ribs and lay 5.5. We just saw on Thursday how in the NFL, laying any more than 3 points is playing with fire unless you think a team will lay over the other. I'm not convinced that we know that the Chiefs lay over the Bills...on the other hand, I'm not sure how inclined I feel to back Fitzpatrick and a bunch of question marks at Arrowhead Stadium in the season opener. Will make a decision here by morning...
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Texans -9
O/U 43.5
This year is finally the year that the Colts will fall apart. Before every season you hear someone predicting that it will all come tumbling down and inevitably Peyton Manning goes out and proves them wrong. At last, it doesn't appear that Manning will be suiting up anytime soon, if at all.
Enter Kerry Collins, with a suspect offensive line. Make no mistake about it, Peyton Manning, among all of his tantalizing skills, might do one thing better than the rest - avoid the sack. A product of both quarterback awareness and offensive line play, anyone who has watched Manning over the years has to look on in amazement at how a guy as slow of foot as he is can seemingly avoid each and every flying missile while remaining in the pocket to set up a throw. This isn't Mike Vick pulling a "Madden" and running backwards ten yards with the turbo held down, then rushing crossfield before either taking off or hitting a wide open receiver who has long gassed his coverage and broken off his route like a backyard game...this is pure quarterbacking at its finest. And Kerry Collins, despite a wonderful arm, might just be the literal antithesis of all this. Like a man wearing cement blocks on his feet, Kerry Collins couldn't avoid a defensive end in a walker. Having watched him for years, there is no doubt in my mind what happens when Collins drops back to pass. A) He gets good protection, has time to scan the field, locate an open spot or receiver, set his feet, unleash a tightrope that hits his guy right in the numbers for the first down or B) He feels a pass-rush and either falls down or tries to get rid of it in what all too often results in a wobbling duck floating into the hands of a fortunate defender.
With a bunch of running backs that lack big-play ability. An aging former superstar possession receiver and a bunch of injury prone wideouts with marginal ability as is, I think we are about to see the proverbial wheels falling off the tank that has been the Colts offense for the past, what, ten years? And as many a prognosticator was all too happy to point out over the years, if and when that ever happened, the defense wouldn't be there to fix-a-flat. And it's still not. I really think the Colts are going to end up as one of the NFL's worst teams this season.
Speaking of analysts constantly predicting a change in a teams level of play only to be wrong, wrong again and wrong again - enter the Houston Texans. Is 2011 finally the long-awaited breakout we have all been hearing about for years now?
We all know about the Texans offense. I'm not going to sit here and make too much of the Arian Foster injury as with all the weapons in the passing game and a dominant offensive line, the difference between him being out there and Derrick Ward/Ben Tate in one single game shouldn't amount to much. The Texans offense, especially against the Colts, is going to score. So what about the defense?
Well the biggest addition to the defense comes in the form of a new coordinator and not one lacking in name recognition - the old ball coach, Wade Philips. A lot of additions have been made to this defense which isn't necessarily any guarantee of success. What is in, in my humble opinion, a guarantee of though - improvement. Last years pass defense was historically bad. Enter Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning.
Apparently, Philips is moving Super Mario Williams to outside linebacker to embody the Demarcus Ware role. I have not yet seen this in action, but would be awfully interested to see if it is effective at all. Regardless, the Texans drafted former Wisconsin DE JJ Watt who looks like the prototype of a 3-4 NFL Defensive End and should be ready to contribute from day 1. With Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody in the middle clogging space, a decent group of linebackers, big improvements in a woeful secondary and an X-factor experiment in Super Mario....the Texans defense is something to watch. If they can keep some injury-prone key offensive cogs healthy and the old ball coach does what I expect him to do with the new and improved defense I think the Houston Texans are A) A LOCK to win the AFC South B) A very good chance of earning a bye alongside Pittsburgh if NE and NYJ hurt each other at all and C) A legitimate Super Bowl Contender.
I know, it almost hurts me to say. Those of you who know me know two things A) I have never bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior and B) Take serious pride in never having bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior. With that said, I'm jumping aboard the hype train this season and thinking a loss to the Steelers in the AFC Conference Championship looks every bit of being right in 2011.
As for tomorrows game, the Texans are extremely playable in my eyes and to me look likely to post the most lopsided score of the day to me.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Browns -6.5
O/U 35.5
We are going to make this analysis a bit abbreviated compared to the rest.
For the Browns, I have always been a Colt McCoy guy. I thought he was highly underrated headed into the draft and was probably the least surprised guy when he was enjoying success last season. That said, he did have more INTs than TDs and it is a bit presumptuous to assume that he will take a large step forward this year. I do love the Browns offensive line and while Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty probably won't break off a ton of big runs, they should continue to provide successful and powerful early down running that should set up McCoy for those short-yardage situations that he is so effective in.
The biggest question surrounding the Browns to me is the defense. Last year Mangini, I believe, was a very underrated Mangenius. No, his defense wasn't brilliant, but they were solid enough to keep the Browns in games. Now switching over to a 4-3, under the direction of former head coach Dick Jauron, I just don't really see much talent on that side of the ball. How they were even league average on defense last year kind of boggles my mind when I look at their roster. There is some talent in the secondary - with Sheldon Brown and youngster Joe Haden forming a very nice duo. Haden looks like a rising talent and it will be interesting to see if he can move forward this year. He draws an intriguing matchup with freak rookie WR AJ Green this week.
Overall, I understand that there are a lot of quiet whispers out there about how this Cleveland Browns team could be sneaky good this season. Unfortunately, I am not exactly sipping the kool-aid here. I don't think they are a terrible team by any stretch, but I also don't think they are playoff-bound by any stretch of the imagination. I think, in fact, it takes a much stronger leap of faith to project them toward the top part of the league than the bottom half.
As for the punching bag that is the Bengals...I'll be honest, I've been an Andy Dalton hater for years now. I seriously thought the guy was a hack. I can at least admit this much though: my college football track record is a whole heckuvalot spottier than my NFL track record, and Andy Dalton cost me a pretty penny over the years. Additionally, while Cincy is everyone's favorite punching bag, destined to be the worst team in the history of professional sports according to most - I personally don't know that he found the worst spot ever to land a rookie starting gig. The offensive line is a lot better than you've been told. Cedric Benson has legal trouble, but really is the product of said line as is, and when he eventually has to sit it might even be a positive...and Andy Dalton will be forever linked to fellow rookie, WR AJ Green. Green is already a bit of a household name. I'm sure you've listened to all the talk about how skilled the kid is and this and that. I'm only here to laud him with even more praise. He is, without question in my mind, the best prospect at WR I have seen since Calvin Johnson. Ask fantasy football opponents of mine how often I have drafted rookie WR's and the answer is honestly as close to zero as you can imagine, if not zero itself. This year, I drafted AJ Green in both of my own leagues and every single league I drafted in for a friend. I realize the situation isn't Julio Jones ideal...but sometimes talent trumps all else and I'm betting that this kid is capable of doing just that.
Know what else the Bengals have? Solid talent in their defensive front-seven. Carlos Dunlap, Keither Rivers, Ray Malauluga, Manny Lawson, Gene Atkins and Tank Johnson. The cornerbacks are a couple of guys you have heard of - Leon Hall and Nate Clements. More good news in the secondary is that the Roy Williams experiment is over, Reggie Nelson has a starting gig and a former Giants talent who is still sneaky good, Gibril Wilson, will be seeing playing time.
Overall, your buddy thinks the Bengals suck, the guy you know who just flew out to Vegas to get wasted and rock the books thinks the Bengals suck. Professional NFL analysts think the Bengals suck and honestly, I'd be lying if I said any different than Vegas itself, probably thinks the Bengals suck. What I am here to say to you is this - the Bengals are the type of team I love. From a talent-level standpoint, I honestly don't think they are much worse off than the Detroit Lions. They certainly don't have a game-changer like Suh on the defense...what they do have is some underrated talent....now the problem here is that there will be a mega-reliance on a rookie QB with a limited skill-set, whose main weapon is a rookie at a position that almost never produces in year one. And what I am recommending is that you disregard all of that, take your cash and throw it directly in the direction of the oncoming wind, and boldly, tell your bookie, "Give me the Bengals for a unit." Do that tomorrow and we will be friends for this season, through thick and thin.
With just the Titans and Jaguars left for the AFC card, I figure I might as well post this. That plus the Vikings/Chargers to come tomorrow morning, along with an official post of official selections that I will track all season long.
There will be a Jets/Cowboys post. I would like to have it up before the 1 o'clocks but in all likelihood it will be posted sometime before 4 o'clock. I can honestly say that I am unsure yet of whether I will be recommending a play or a sit-tight.
Monday, with two games, I will unfortunately not be out of work until 3....I will definitely post prior to kick and likely will have, at the very least, the first game posted by 6.
Next week will certainly be a lot more organized, slightly less lengthy, and certainly more edited. Thanks for hanging through the typos and non-sensical remarks, I promise that future posts will be covered with a more fine-toothed comb.
What do you make of the Buffalo Bills? Here is the short-cutted version. They have a fairly untalented quarterback who is a solid fit in Chan Gailey's QB-friendly system. He played well enough to win games last year if he had a solid defense opposite him, the Bills unfortunately did not, and while they did string together some late season wins last year they weren't exactly against top competition and they didn't exactly blow the doors off the hinges. At running back that have an interesting duo in solid veteran Fred Jackson and a flashy young speedster who hasn't quite figured it out yet in CJ Spiller. I'm surprised how little attention Spiller seems to be receiving, both from the national media outlets and even here in Buffalo, easily the Bills most dynamic playmaker, the back has the capability of breaking it to the crib everytime he touches it - a skillset rarely seen out in Orchard Park in some time. And yet, there isn't much talk of maximizing his touches. You get the sense either they're keeping him a secret until the actual season starts or he might be a poor man's version of Reggie Bush. Either way, if the offense is going to become dangerous it's going to be behind him and no one else. Make what you want to Steve Johnson's breakout season last, but repeating the numbers he put up is going to prove tremendously difficult. Last year he was the unknown quantity and teams focused in on stopping deep-threat Lee Evans. With Evans gone, Johnson is unquestionably the guy defensive coordinators will be gameplanning to stop and many a talented receiver has trended downward under these circumstances. David Nelson is an intriguing unknown talent on the opposite end of the field and the Bills will need him to step up in a similar fashion to how Johnson did last year if Fitzpatrick is going to come close to repeating his league average numbers of a year ago.
Defensively the Bills actually possess some upside. A year ago you could run up the gut on them like a hot knife through butter. It was almost comical to watch as every HB Dive seemed to go for huge chunks and there was simply no end to it. Rookie DT Marcel Dareus could be the medicine for that. The front-seven looks a lot better than it did a year ago, especially if Shawne Merriman can stay healthy and continue the momentum he has built up in the pre-season. The secondary remains talented and you have to think overall that this unit is improved. With all that is going on in Miami I think the Bills look like a decent bet to win 6, maybe 7, and possibly 8 games this year. Facing a Kansas City team starting a marginal quarterback with a cracked rib, even on the road doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.
As for that team in Kansas City...first of all, I loved Kansas City last year, betting them early and often and reaping the benefits. But to label their schedule last year as soft is understating the obvious. Everything broke right for them last year and this year it doesn't look the same on paper. Additionally, they will be dealing with the loss of their offensive coordinator, Charlie Weiss. The offensive line suffered some losses, there are some new but uninspiring WR's in town and the QB is a big question mark.
Defensively, the Chiefs were very tough to pass on last year, to beat them, you simply had to run the football. They brought in new NT Kelly Gregg which should alleviate some of those woes. There are a plethora of talented front-seven players with none better than Tamba Hali who is about as good as any player in the NFL at getting to the quarterback. Expect Kansas City to do their best Pittsburgh/Baltimore impression this year and try to squeak out close games behind stout defense and some big plays from Charles and Bowe. If the defense can't find a way to improve its performance against the run however, they might be in for a long season.
Overall, I want to feel that there is value on the Bills here. 5.5 is nothing to sneeze at in what could be a low scoring game. You have to ask yourself if you can really feel at all comfortable backing a team with a QB as uninspiring at Matt Cassel, with cracked ribs and lay 5.5. We just saw on Thursday how in the NFL, laying any more than 3 points is playing with fire unless you think a team will lay over the other. I'm not convinced that we know that the Chiefs lay over the Bills...on the other hand, I'm not sure how inclined I feel to back Fitzpatrick and a bunch of question marks at Arrowhead Stadium in the season opener. Will make a decision here by morning...
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Texans -9
O/U 43.5
This year is finally the year that the Colts will fall apart. Before every season you hear someone predicting that it will all come tumbling down and inevitably Peyton Manning goes out and proves them wrong. At last, it doesn't appear that Manning will be suiting up anytime soon, if at all.
Enter Kerry Collins, with a suspect offensive line. Make no mistake about it, Peyton Manning, among all of his tantalizing skills, might do one thing better than the rest - avoid the sack. A product of both quarterback awareness and offensive line play, anyone who has watched Manning over the years has to look on in amazement at how a guy as slow of foot as he is can seemingly avoid each and every flying missile while remaining in the pocket to set up a throw. This isn't Mike Vick pulling a "Madden" and running backwards ten yards with the turbo held down, then rushing crossfield before either taking off or hitting a wide open receiver who has long gassed his coverage and broken off his route like a backyard game...this is pure quarterbacking at its finest. And Kerry Collins, despite a wonderful arm, might just be the literal antithesis of all this. Like a man wearing cement blocks on his feet, Kerry Collins couldn't avoid a defensive end in a walker. Having watched him for years, there is no doubt in my mind what happens when Collins drops back to pass. A) He gets good protection, has time to scan the field, locate an open spot or receiver, set his feet, unleash a tightrope that hits his guy right in the numbers for the first down or B) He feels a pass-rush and either falls down or tries to get rid of it in what all too often results in a wobbling duck floating into the hands of a fortunate defender.
With a bunch of running backs that lack big-play ability. An aging former superstar possession receiver and a bunch of injury prone wideouts with marginal ability as is, I think we are about to see the proverbial wheels falling off the tank that has been the Colts offense for the past, what, ten years? And as many a prognosticator was all too happy to point out over the years, if and when that ever happened, the defense wouldn't be there to fix-a-flat. And it's still not. I really think the Colts are going to end up as one of the NFL's worst teams this season.
Speaking of analysts constantly predicting a change in a teams level of play only to be wrong, wrong again and wrong again - enter the Houston Texans. Is 2011 finally the long-awaited breakout we have all been hearing about for years now?
We all know about the Texans offense. I'm not going to sit here and make too much of the Arian Foster injury as with all the weapons in the passing game and a dominant offensive line, the difference between him being out there and Derrick Ward/Ben Tate in one single game shouldn't amount to much. The Texans offense, especially against the Colts, is going to score. So what about the defense?
Well the biggest addition to the defense comes in the form of a new coordinator and not one lacking in name recognition - the old ball coach, Wade Philips. A lot of additions have been made to this defense which isn't necessarily any guarantee of success. What is in, in my humble opinion, a guarantee of though - improvement. Last years pass defense was historically bad. Enter Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning.
Apparently, Philips is moving Super Mario Williams to outside linebacker to embody the Demarcus Ware role. I have not yet seen this in action, but would be awfully interested to see if it is effective at all. Regardless, the Texans drafted former Wisconsin DE JJ Watt who looks like the prototype of a 3-4 NFL Defensive End and should be ready to contribute from day 1. With Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody in the middle clogging space, a decent group of linebackers, big improvements in a woeful secondary and an X-factor experiment in Super Mario....the Texans defense is something to watch. If they can keep some injury-prone key offensive cogs healthy and the old ball coach does what I expect him to do with the new and improved defense I think the Houston Texans are A) A LOCK to win the AFC South B) A very good chance of earning a bye alongside Pittsburgh if NE and NYJ hurt each other at all and C) A legitimate Super Bowl Contender.
I know, it almost hurts me to say. Those of you who know me know two things A) I have never bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior and B) Take serious pride in never having bought into the hype surrounding the Texans in years prior. With that said, I'm jumping aboard the hype train this season and thinking a loss to the Steelers in the AFC Conference Championship looks every bit of being right in 2011.
As for tomorrows game, the Texans are extremely playable in my eyes and to me look likely to post the most lopsided score of the day to me.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Browns -6.5
O/U 35.5
We are going to make this analysis a bit abbreviated compared to the rest.
For the Browns, I have always been a Colt McCoy guy. I thought he was highly underrated headed into the draft and was probably the least surprised guy when he was enjoying success last season. That said, he did have more INTs than TDs and it is a bit presumptuous to assume that he will take a large step forward this year. I do love the Browns offensive line and while Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty probably won't break off a ton of big runs, they should continue to provide successful and powerful early down running that should set up McCoy for those short-yardage situations that he is so effective in.
The biggest question surrounding the Browns to me is the defense. Last year Mangini, I believe, was a very underrated Mangenius. No, his defense wasn't brilliant, but they were solid enough to keep the Browns in games. Now switching over to a 4-3, under the direction of former head coach Dick Jauron, I just don't really see much talent on that side of the ball. How they were even league average on defense last year kind of boggles my mind when I look at their roster. There is some talent in the secondary - with Sheldon Brown and youngster Joe Haden forming a very nice duo. Haden looks like a rising talent and it will be interesting to see if he can move forward this year. He draws an intriguing matchup with freak rookie WR AJ Green this week.
Overall, I understand that there are a lot of quiet whispers out there about how this Cleveland Browns team could be sneaky good this season. Unfortunately, I am not exactly sipping the kool-aid here. I don't think they are a terrible team by any stretch, but I also don't think they are playoff-bound by any stretch of the imagination. I think, in fact, it takes a much stronger leap of faith to project them toward the top part of the league than the bottom half.
As for the punching bag that is the Bengals...I'll be honest, I've been an Andy Dalton hater for years now. I seriously thought the guy was a hack. I can at least admit this much though: my college football track record is a whole heckuvalot spottier than my NFL track record, and Andy Dalton cost me a pretty penny over the years. Additionally, while Cincy is everyone's favorite punching bag, destined to be the worst team in the history of professional sports according to most - I personally don't know that he found the worst spot ever to land a rookie starting gig. The offensive line is a lot better than you've been told. Cedric Benson has legal trouble, but really is the product of said line as is, and when he eventually has to sit it might even be a positive...and Andy Dalton will be forever linked to fellow rookie, WR AJ Green. Green is already a bit of a household name. I'm sure you've listened to all the talk about how skilled the kid is and this and that. I'm only here to laud him with even more praise. He is, without question in my mind, the best prospect at WR I have seen since Calvin Johnson. Ask fantasy football opponents of mine how often I have drafted rookie WR's and the answer is honestly as close to zero as you can imagine, if not zero itself. This year, I drafted AJ Green in both of my own leagues and every single league I drafted in for a friend. I realize the situation isn't Julio Jones ideal...but sometimes talent trumps all else and I'm betting that this kid is capable of doing just that.
Know what else the Bengals have? Solid talent in their defensive front-seven. Carlos Dunlap, Keither Rivers, Ray Malauluga, Manny Lawson, Gene Atkins and Tank Johnson. The cornerbacks are a couple of guys you have heard of - Leon Hall and Nate Clements. More good news in the secondary is that the Roy Williams experiment is over, Reggie Nelson has a starting gig and a former Giants talent who is still sneaky good, Gibril Wilson, will be seeing playing time.
Overall, your buddy thinks the Bengals suck, the guy you know who just flew out to Vegas to get wasted and rock the books thinks the Bengals suck. Professional NFL analysts think the Bengals suck and honestly, I'd be lying if I said any different than Vegas itself, probably thinks the Bengals suck. What I am here to say to you is this - the Bengals are the type of team I love. From a talent-level standpoint, I honestly don't think they are much worse off than the Detroit Lions. They certainly don't have a game-changer like Suh on the defense...what they do have is some underrated talent....now the problem here is that there will be a mega-reliance on a rookie QB with a limited skill-set, whose main weapon is a rookie at a position that almost never produces in year one. And what I am recommending is that you disregard all of that, take your cash and throw it directly in the direction of the oncoming wind, and boldly, tell your bookie, "Give me the Bengals for a unit." Do that tomorrow and we will be friends for this season, through thick and thin.
With just the Titans and Jaguars left for the AFC card, I figure I might as well post this. That plus the Vikings/Chargers to come tomorrow morning, along with an official post of official selections that I will track all season long.
There will be a Jets/Cowboys post. I would like to have it up before the 1 o'clocks but in all likelihood it will be posted sometime before 4 o'clock. I can honestly say that I am unsure yet of whether I will be recommending a play or a sit-tight.
Monday, with two games, I will unfortunately not be out of work until 3....I will definitely post prior to kick and likely will have, at the very least, the first game posted by 6.
Next week will certainly be a lot more organized, slightly less lengthy, and certainly more edited. Thanks for hanging through the typos and non-sensical remarks, I promise that future posts will be covered with a more fine-toothed comb.
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