Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Game Reviews

These will range from very brief to quite in-depth, the goal here it to try to write down things you saw from teams that merit monitoring. For instance, was a team extremely vulnerable against the run but got out to an early lead and not exposed? Stuff like that...

Bears 30 Falcons 12
Alarming result for the Falcons. Their defense was completely exposed, particularly the secondary as Cutler threw for 9 yards per attempt despite no real weapons at WR. Abraham had two sacks and the Falcons had 4 total, so I wouldn't blame the pass rush much and I also wouldn't be jumping to any conclusions that the Bears have suddenly fixed their issues on the offensive line (and Cutler's willingness to take lots of sacks). Really a weird game and two teams that I probably prefer to avoid, though would consider betting against.

Bengals 27 Browns 17
I think we found out that this Browns team is who I thought they were. Not very good. McCoy is going to struggle to take a step forward this year, Peyton Hillis was bottled up and the defense played horribly. The Bengals are going to be very conservative, looking to run Benson a ton and keeping most throws underneath, looks like an awfully fortunate win against a very weak opponent.

Bills 41 Chiefs 7
Well, no one saw this coming. I was seeing value in the Bills, but this was just impossible to predict. The KC defense could not have possibly looked any worse and losing Eric Berry for the season will do it no favors. The Bills defense really looks improved as they somehow managed to bottle up Charles, especially and perhaps most surprisingly, in the receiving game. I wouldn't read too much into it though as Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady to begin with and playing with cracked ribs he looked completely useless out there. Until he looks healthier this Chiefs team is unbackable. Bills are a major consideration for next weeks action with Oakland coming to town on a short week...

Eagles 31 Rams 13
Initially, I was going to be all over the Rams, but the more I looked into it the more I started to believe that the Eagles were a borderline lock here and that is basically what was proven on the field. The Eagles showed major, major vulnerability in both their blocking and their run defense. If a team can just pound the rock up the middle the Eagles are either going to get gashed or will have to use a lot of resources to stop it. On offense, as long as Vick, McCoy and Jackson stay healthy (D-Jax already was dinged up) the blocking probably won't be too much of a factor. They are just so explosive and Vick buys so much time on roll-outs that the points will be there. I still think come playoff time, and in certain matchups this year, teams will be able to expose them because of this though. I thought that the Rams had a bad matchup here. They are a young, fairly fast team and they just got beat by a team that does what they do better. You can't hold this one against them too much moving forward, though they did suffer some tough injuries.

Lions 27 Bucs 20
I can see already that this Lions team is going to be one that, for better or worse, I'll be fading early and often. There were simply too many question marks in Tampa for me to take them. Tampa was even fortunate on an early pick-6 by Aqib Talib. The Lions easily outgained them all game and by all accounts probably should've won by more. I think it's more of an indictment of Tampa though as really the front-seven wasn't able to apply any pressure and has major question marks. Outside Talib the secondary is weak. Blount never got untracked and figured to have a tough tough running against this Lions front-7. You can look at Stafford's gaudy passing numbers and talk about how unstoppable Calvin Johnson is, but to me, let's see what happens when Stafford faces a team with a pass rush. It doesn't look like they can run it and I think some pressure would expose these Lions for what they are.

Jaguars 16 Titans 14
Not sure what really can be said here, but it does appear that the Titans are going to have a hard time stopping any running game all year. When Luke McCown is at QB and you can't stop the running back you have issues. Hasselbeck padded his stats in large part thanks to Kenny Britt's YAC. Surprised to see Chris Johnson get so locked up and I will be paying close attention to how the Jags do next week vs. the run to see if this is a strength of the Jags or a possible issue for the Titans. If CJ isn't going to be a beast this looks like a long year for the Titans.

Ravens 35 Steelers 7
While you can't be too much more off about a game than this, and with Steelers OT Colon lost for the season, I want to believe that there is no need to panic about these Steelers. First off, Flacco, a guy I have questioned more than most over the years, has every right to take a big step forward this season and we might have seen the makings of just that. Secondly, the Steelers fumbled 4 times and lost all 4. If not for the turnovers, Pittsburgh RB Rashard Mendenhall actually had the makings of a nice game on the ground, but soon they were forced to air it out. Terrell Suggs proved unblockable and ended with 3 sacks...the Pitt o-line remains a major concern and I think they are unbackable until we find out how much of the issues are with them not being able to block vs. how good the Ravens front-7 is. I'm not making too much of the Pitt-D getting old talk that you're hearing everywhere though, they were put in impossible spots all day and I think the game is a complete toss for them. Hard not to come away impressed with Baltimore though, they look like they could be one of the NFL's best teams if they suddenly have an offense.

Texans 34 Colts 7
The Colts are seriously going to be awful. They are a team whose defense is built to play with a lead and their offense is now incapable of getting them one. For years, it's been known that you can gash the Colts defense up the middle on the ground and teams are going to be doing that until Indy is blue in the face. On the other end I will make a prediction that Kerry Collins won't last long as the starter. Unless they can provide better protection for him he's going to be a turnover machine. The Texans I do believe are the real deal, but I can't give them any type of credit for this as the matchup really couldn't have been any better for them. Equipped with big targets in the passing game and one of the league's premier power running games, they had to win big here in my eyes, and while I take nothing away from them for taking care of business, let's see what they do next week before patting ourselves on the backs about them.

Cardinals 28 Panthers 21
Already covered this but will add that the Panthers defense, now officially missing Beason for the season, is going to be really bad it appears. Beanie Wells gashed them with ease. On the other end, the Cardinals defense looks absolutely atrocious as well...422 yards to a rookie QB in his first game is laughable. Both teams are strictly unbackable and perfectly good fades to me, particularly Arizona...

Chargers 24 Vikings 17
McNabb being 7/15 for 39 yards just doesn't bode well any way you slice it. Minnesota did what you'd expect, they ran it effectively and stopped the run effectively...everything else looks pretty weak. Can't say that the Chargers were overwhelming, but they are the Chargers and sometimes you feel like you shouldn't even bother trying to get a read on them. That is how I feel following this one.

49ers 33 Seahawks 17
Tough game to gauge. On the one hand the 49ers completely dominated the game early but kept settling for FG's and allowed Seattle to somewhat hang around. The Seattle offense is absolutely horrible, but a 55 yard TD pass snuck them back into the game with 4 minutes left. Ted Ginn took a kick and punt return to the house over the next couple minutes and that ended the Seattle bid. Alex Smith did very little to change anyone's opinion of him while Crabtree caught 1 ball for 4 yards before again going out to injury. Both teams averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry.

Redskins 28 Giants 14
Really don't want to re-visit a game where Rex Grossman was able to average 7.6 YPA while going over 300 yards with 2 TD's and no picks. And his numbers could very well have looked tons better if there weren't a bunch of drops along the way. The Giants secondary could not have played any worse. Actually, it probably could have...if you removed Kenny Philips they may have never made a stop. Aaron Ross is such a liability it's a joke, expect teams to pick on him early and often. Corey Webster is great at covering the fly route, but any type of cut by a receiver and he is toasted. I thought the Giants pass rush was still getting plenty of push, the simple fact was that the corners couldn't cover anyone and Rex Grossman rarely needed to move to his second read. When he did he simply threw it away. If you're not foaming at the mouth to bet against Rex Grossman against a team with better corners I don't know what to tell you. It's nice to see him limit the turnovers in a game like that, but what happens if he's trailing in the second half and has to force the issue? Pretty sure good old Rex with start offering up the ball to the defense like we all know is his wont. The fact that the Redskins couldn't run the ball makes it all the more obvious to me that they will struggle mightily at some point. Offensively, the Giants offensive line simply could not afford the Giants enough time to prove how much the best their skill players were. I want to give the Redskins defense some credit for that as I don't think they are a bad unit, but I also will take the stance that right now the Giants o-line is simply too makeshift to get the job done. It's not like the Redskins line is made of any type of world-beaters...that is simply unacceptable play from a unit that has been a big blue strength for some time now.
I also thought that the play-calling was a bit spotty for the Giants and would've liked more Jacobs and less Bradshaw. Bradshaw clearly had nothing going on Sunday and at least Jacobs showed some signs of life. Throw in another bad-luck INT from Eli that was returned for a touchdown and you had all the makings of a less talented team taking out one that should've simply been best. Looking forward you can't back the Giants any time soon....until the o-line figures it out I just can't see much consistency developing on offense despite all the talent that is still there. Defensively, the front-seven played just fine for me which often will hide a bad secondary. The secondary was so bad however that it didn't matter. You almost have to hope that Prince gets healthy fast and somehow is ready for the big stage....Tuck says he's 50/50 for next week and it will be big to get him back...but how much will it help if the opposing QB only has to take a 3 step drop and find Aaron Ross's man?

Jets 27 Cowboys 24
Biggest story of this game for me is how average the Jets defense looked. It's still a very good unit, you can't run it on them and Revis, despite being beaten a few times, is still tough out there. They have playmakers that will make you pay for mistakes. Despite 4 sacks, I didn't feel like their pass rush was nearly fierce enough though. It seemed like when they didn't get to Romo he was mighty comfy back there and if this Cowboys line can block it's quite clear that the Cowboys simply have too much firepower for a defense to stop. If Dez Bryant doesn't start cramping up I'm not sure the Jets would've won that game. I won't hold giving up large chunks of yardage to the Cowboys passing attack too much against the Jets D, but for now, it looks like a unit that is top-10, but not one that is some type of immovable force.
I'll be interested to see two things from the Cowboys next out: A) Can they establish a running game and B) Can the offensive line pass protect well enough. Quite simply, I think what we are seeing is the re-emergence of the Cowboys offense and if my suspection that they only struggled to run it because the Jets run-D remains elite is true, imagine how impossible they are to stop?
For the Jets on offense Mark Sanchez remains frustrating. One play he looks like a stud and the next he looks lost. He did some padding of his stats late but did average a solid 7.2 per attempt. I also thought he handled significant pressure applied by a Cowboys front-seven that surprisingly to me, overwhelmed the Jets offensive line early and often. The Jets offensive line simply has to play better. If they do, I think we will see a productive Jets offense as Holmes looked uncoverable, Plax still has a knack for catching the ball in traffic (and in the end zone) and Keller is a beast. I'll be interested to see how Shonn Greene does if his line isn't getting completely blown up.
The Cowboys defense is an easy grade to me. Their front-seven is extremely good and will be a handful for teams with weak offensive lines. Their secondary is extremely vulnerable though. If you protect your QB I think you will score at will on them...and I want to see if their next opponent is able to get more going on the ground than the Jets did.
Overall, the Cowboys are a team I want to back early and often and while I would be a bit more hesitant on backing the Jets, if the matchup was suitable I would have no issue doing so.

Patriots 38 Dolphins 24
What more is there really to say that hasn't already been said? It doesn't take 20/20 vision to see what happened last night. With that said, I'm not going to completely dismiss this Dolphins defense, the Vontae Davis injury was absolutely brutal to them because Nolan Carroll should be flipping burgers tonight. The Pats o-line looked as good as any unit that I saw and I think the Fins defense will prove to be a lot better than they looked there. Still, you'd like to see them putting up a little resistance I suppose.
On the other ends the New England secondary still looks shaky (see a theme here in the NFL?) but their linebackers make it difficult to run on them and the D-Line flashed some ability to be dominant. Still, it looks like this New England team will again live and die by Brady & co. torching any and every defense sent his way. Miami's offense merits watching. Henne still struggles to get through progressions but it looks like the speed of Reggie Bush is going to open some things up for the offense and Henne still possesses a golden arm. Would be nervous about their offense until seeing a bit more of a sample though.

Raiders 23 Broncos 20
Really saw a lot of fortune in what the Raiders did here but I think it ultimately just goes to show how bad Denver is going to be. Defensively, I think Fox lacks the type of personnel that he really wants and I don't think we're going to see Denver holding many opponents under 20 this year, despite some solid players. Offensively the Broncos offensive line simply has to play better. They couldn't open up a single hole for Moreno all day...but when Orton was afforded time Lloyd, Royal, Moreno and even McGahee were able to make some things happen out of the backfield. I would struggle mightily to find any reason to back either of these teams in the near future.

3 comments:

  1. What a frustrating way to lose that game to the Jets. Not many picked Dallas to win and to come out and dominate for 3 quarters only to lose is really hard to swallow for this Dallas fan. A win there is probably a huge bonus in the NFC East and down the line.
    Garrett said today in his press conference that the Jets were playing 8 men in the box no matter what personel Dallas came out in. They were playing a lot of the bear defense. I think Felix still had a couple of decent runs, and against other teams will get bigger runs. Especially against the Eagles as you mentioned earlier.
    Our secondary is terrible and will get worse. Injuries during the game caused us to go to the bottom of the depth chart. I thought the pass rush was tremendous for week 1. Dez needs to figure out this injury situation cause he was a beast early on and got the offense on track.
    Overall, while I broke several items in my living room because of the way we lost, the next day I did see a lot of positives. The big question mark was our offensive line, and I felt they did a great job. There were 2 guys making their 1st start and one guy was making his 2nd start. You just have to try and bury this one and move on. The 49ers could be in for a rude awakening next week. Alex Smith meet D. Ware.

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  2. Yeah, not to mention it took a blocked punt to do so.

    I thought in the second half the Cowboys defense looked more confused like I expected, I think early on they just kept it so simple and blew up the jets line.

    Agreed on the 49ers...I haven't looked at the games yet, wanted to take a day to cool off before looking but I think I will have a hard time laying off the Cowboys at pretty much any number.

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  3. I believe Dallas has opened at -3.

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