Sunday's NFC Card

A couple quick notes: in an attempt to break it up I decided I would do the NFC v. NFC matchups today. The AFC v. AFC matchups tomorrow and then Sunday/Monday morning the primetime NFC v. AFC matchups. Not sure exactly how closely time will permit me to follow that but I did complete all but Seattle/San Fransisco for today's portion. Unfortunately, I work nights and that will be all for today. Additionally, time may be limited tomorrow and I might end up finishing much of this Sunday while holding off on the Sunday night game until just prior to kick and the Monday night games done prior to kick Monday. Additionally, it should be noted that there is no one I will be getting this in-depth about every matchup every week. The reason these breakdowns were so long is that I see it as a way to combine a team pre-season preview with a thorough handicap of what to expect/look for on Sunday. There certainly will be games throughout the year that will get this level of critical analysis, but most of those will be the games I would recommend as "actual plays" with the games I see as "no action" simply getting a paragraph, or a few of my thoughts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
TB -1
O/U 41
The Detroit Lions are starting to look like the new version of the Houston Texans. They seem to be the sexy pick to breakout behind the strength of a big-armed, fragile quarterback, otherworldly-talented wide receiver and a larger than life defensive lineman. So far, it has not quite worked out for Houston. Will it work for Detroit?

What he know about Detroit is that for all their young talent and marked improvement last year, they still only won 6 games. While the infamous "Calvin Johnson Rule" loss is completely excusable, they also missed out on numerous other opportunities to secure victories. Their front-four on the defensive line put in a monster of a season, helping the team to accomplish 48 sacks of opposing quarterbacks while Ndamukong Suh proved that he is going to be a nightmare for opposing offenses for years to come. With Calvin Johnson at WR, Jahvid Best at RB and Matt Stafford finally healthy again (for now) at QB, you would think they have all the ingredients for success in house. Unfortunately, the Lions might have made a mistake when going out and using a top pick on yet another DT. As appealing as it is to pair rookie Nick Fairley (he's out anyway) alongside Suh, this is an experiment that had better work out, because when you get past QB, RB, WR and the D-line the talent level doesn't just drop off, it falls off a cliff. Rounds two and three went to a RB (also out) and a WR. Bolstering positions that are already a team's strength can work for a playoff team. Ignoring the holes of a 6-10 team though is playing with fire. Linebacker looks like one of the leagues worst units. The offensive line is anchored by veteran Jeff Backus and is a pretty good pass-blocking unit but really lacks the power to consistently open up holes in the running game. Arguably the secondary was the Lions weakest unit last year. When you consider that the team accrued such a solid number of sacks while not blitzing often and yet was still routinely torched it does not bode well for the talent in back. There are a number of new faces and potentially developing talent, but nothing that screams out definitive improvement.

If the secondary jumps up to be even league average, that and the front four could make this an imposing defense. If Stafford remains healthy, Calvin Johnson could finally break out and put up the freakish stats his ability seems to portend. Those are some major ifs however and I personally am not buying the Lions hype that is being sold by the handfuls in this NFL's preseason. I don't see a team that is supposed to win more than 8 games on paper.
A final note, and to me the most important. When did Matthew Stafford get crowned? Seriously, people act as if we know that Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and that he just needs to stay healthy to prove it. In 2009, he had 20 Interceptions to 13 touchdowns. Not bad for a rookie quarterback but not exactly lighting up the league either. If you take away his 422 yard, 5 touchdown, 2 int performance against Cleveland he drops below 6 yards per attempt and has 18 ints to just 8 TD's. In no other game did he top 300 yards. Last year he could only stay healthy for three games and while showing some promise with 6 touchdowns to just 1 interception, he only average 5.6 YPA while completing a tick under 60%. Personally, I didn't like Stafford coming out of college and I look on in amusement while seeing all of the praise lauded on the kid for having accomplished absolutely nothing yet. I'm not saying he can't be good, he has a big arm....but he has to do a whole lot more with it before I'm granting that he's going to turn a team like the Lions into a playoff lock.

On the other hand we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An unexpected winner of 10 games to most, the Bucs are led by a nice looking young QB in Josh Freeman and were one of if not the NFL's youngest teams last season. Freeman, drafted the same year as Stafford has to date accomplished a lot more than Stafford and yet, perhaps based on draft position, still seems to get slighted when discussing the two. Speaking of similarities, the Bucs boast a ton of young talent along the defensive line, though these players have yet to actually turn that talent into production on the field. While the Lions have Calvin Johnson, the Bucs have the first rookie wide receiver since Randy Moss to score 10 TD's in Mike Williams. They also have another talented young WR in Arrelious Benn.

From a matchup standpoint this game seems to boil down to one key area - the Lions d-line against the Bucs o-line. Faced with numerous injuries last year the Bucs o-line held it together, thanks in part to Freeman's mobility and in part to paving the way for one of the most powerful young running backs in the league in LaGarette Blount. It could really go either way as the Bucs o-line is far from elite but also far from weak.

On the other side of the ball, Raheem Morris is a defensive backs coach at heart and it showed last year as the team had one of the best secondaries in football. Aqib Talib is the teams best corner and though he faces legal trouble, will play on Sunday which is big news because Morris said he will be shadowing Calvin Johnson all game. Like many teams in the league linebacker doesn't appear to be a strength for the Bucs and the d-line is a complete question mark. Still, if you take the conservative notion of seeing Freeman/Williams/Benn continuing to develop while a defensive line that couldn't have played worse last year, yet contains about 4 players from the first two rounds of the past few drafts, improves how do you not see value in taking Tampa Bay offering up less than a field goal in their season home opener?

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta -3
O/U 40.5
The Chicago Bears are one of many teams in the NFL that are hard to calculate. You could view them as a team learning a system early last season with a historically bad offensive line that improved as the season went on and in turn made them a reasonable offense with a suffocating defense and a dynamic special teams. On the other hand you could look at them as a team that played a weak schedule, faced numerous backup QB's along the way, caught a bunch of breaks and basically had all the chips fall right for them. I am of the latter opinion.

More changes to Mike Tice's offensive line occurred over the off-season and talented tight end Greg Olsen has a new home while Roy Williams is a Mike Martz resurrection project in Chicago in 2011. Matt Forte and Jay Cutler return for what that is worth.

The defense looks pretty much the same and having all of their big guns healthy to start the season make them a force to be reckoned with at least early in the year.

Overall what I see in Chicago is a team with a shaky offensive line, no legitimate receiving threats (other than Forte out of the backfield) and a quarterback that flashes brilliance just enough to make you forget all the times during the game where you think to yourself "This guy is the absolute worst." With the new rules still likely to downplay the role of special teams (though last night that wasn't quite the case) and all of the offensive question marks, the Bears defense is going to have to be nearly flawless to hold this team together. The one x-factor I'll highlight is that former head coach Mike Tice controls the offensive line and you usually don't work your way up to head coach in the NFL as an o-line coach unless you're damn good at your job. The way the unit improved last year offers hope that maybe he can turn it around this year. If so, with a healthy defense, the offense might be able to make enough plays to make the Bears dangerous this year, but until proven otherwise I'm going to take the opposing viewpoint.

As for Atlanta I think it's fairly easy to call a spade a spade at this point. The strength of the team is the offensive line which returns four starters and should continue to pave the way for Michael Turner. This year they added a little explosiveness to the backfield with rookie Jacquizz Rodgers who should see some 3rd down snaps and I think has a chance to be a real factor. Matt Ryan is a great fit behind this line. He is a conservative quarterback who doesn't blow the doors off teams but limits interceptions and throws an accurate ball. At this point Roddy White is a household name but the guy that everyone seems to think will be the difference maker this year is rookie Julio Jones. For years now Atlanta has struggled to come up with anyone that poses any type of threat opposite White (not that it's stopped him from producing) and if Jones is that guy the offense could just open up. However, I am dubious that, at least this year, this will take place. For one, rookie WR's are rarely ever productive and while Julio Jones lit up the combine and possesses immense physical ability, watching him in college I always came away disappointed. AJ Green to me was 10x the WR he was and while I didn't mind the draft pick I have a feeling people will be disappointed in what Jones offers at times this year.

The real reason I never really bought into Atlanta last year was their defense. I felt they posed little threat in the playoffs due to this and we found out that it simply didn't have enough talent to stop the likes of Green Bay. Their front seven is not without talent and if LB'er Sean Weatherspoon can stay healthy and on the field there is a chance he could be a difference maker. Unfortunately, the front-seven did nothing to speak too highly of last year and the secondary that backs it up is simply not any good.

There has been a lot of talk in the off-season about how Atlanta needed to get faster before this season. I agree with that. There also is a lot of excitement about how they did just that. They may have on the whole, but they did it moreso on the offensive end whereas to me the defensive side is the one that desperately needs it. The defense is solid enough to stop the weaker offenses in the league, but when facing a team with a bunch of playmakers can really struggle. I don't see a whole lot different this year.

Overall, this is a game to me that deserves to be watched and analyzed. I'm down on this Bears team and really want to see how the offensive line looks. Atlanta on the other hand looks like another team being a touch overrated...however I don't see Chicago as having the structure of a team that can expose them much. The under looks a little intriguing to me.

St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles -4.5
O/U 43.5
Let me start by saying the Philadelphia Eagles are a good team. At least while they are healthy. With that said, I would temper enthusiasm a touch relative to the media hype surrounding their off-season moves.
There is no question that Samuels, Asomougha and Rodgers-Cromartie is the leagues best trio of cornerbacks and on paper is one of the best ever assembled.
There is no question of the big play ability possessed within Mike Vick, Desean Jackson and Lesean McCoy.
Let's look for some chinks in the armor though:
A) Mike Vick can never in his life throw as few interceptions per attempt as he did last year. I give him a lot of credit for the 63% completion percentage, though it is in huge part to his running back being his leading pass catcher. He throws a great deep ball, but he simply isn't as accurate of a thrower as last years numbers lead you to believe.
B) D-Jax is one of the most exciting receivers in the league. Lost in his big play ability however is the fact that he failed to reach 50 catches last year. To call him an elite WR in the NFL right now is unfounded.
C) The offensive line has some major question marks.
D) They appear to be very vulnerable on the defensive side right up the gut.

Defensively, regardless of how good your secondary is it still all starts up front. The Eagles lost important DT Broderick Bunkley. Trent Cole is coming off a monster season but you have to wonder how much he will miss his two DT's from last year. A lot is being made of Jason Babin, but despite double-digit sacks last year Babin has never been the model of consistency.
The linebackers and safeties don't exactly scare the life out of anyone.

The Eagles will be an interesting case-study. Just how beneficial is it to have a bunch of lockdown corners? Expect teams to try to take Philly with power running games up the gut until they prove they can stop that. If they can't it might end up forcing the pass-rushing ends to play more conservatively and we will really find out what the secondary is made of. Either way, I think a full off-season of tape is going to result in a regression for the offense and the Eagles are the type of team that you might not necessarily want to bet against, but rarely get you rich betting on.

So, the question becomes, what to make of St. Louis? Well, Sam Bradford does look the part of promising young quarterback. 18 TD's to 13 INT's last year made the Rams much more competitive than most thought heading into the season. Bradford is an accurate passer but has yet to show off any type of deep ball throwing ability. In part, it appears that he simply doesn't have any big play WR's on hand. Still, he seems to keep everything underneath and you have to think that with a year of film to watch, NFL teams will clamp down and force him to prove that he can beat them over the top. The offensive line is a pretty talented group and if they stay healthy should provide Bradford with enough time to do so.
Defensively, Chris Long finally made an impact last year with 8.5 sacks. The secondary is still pretty weak though and outside of Laurentis there isn't much of a playmaker in the LB corps.

In a similar way that I am treating Matthew Stafford, I think it is only fair to say the same of Sam Bradford. On the surface he looks like a young, accurate quarterback, with some mobility and ample smarts - call it the prototype for today's game. And yet, we just haven't really seen what will happen when he tries to open things up, when he starts taking chances downfield and attempts to turn this offense from a ball-controlling, conservative unit into a high-scoring powerful one. With Josh McDaniels taking over as the offensive coordinator I have a feeling that this year we will get to see exactly that. I won't be surprised if he fails miserably or succeeds with ease, but at this point I recommend sitting back and watching before putting any real money on an opinion there.

Overall, originally I heard St. Louis +6.5 and figured with the hype surrounding the Eagles, the line would surely move past a full touchdown up to 7.5, perhaps even more. If that were the case I might be slightly tempted to go with the Rams. But as the line fell to 4.5 and with more careful consideration, I don't exactly see how St. Louis is going to hang with the powerful Eagles here, even at home. The recommendation here is a strict stay away.

Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants
Giants -3
O/U 38
The injuries have really mounted for the Giants here. An already weak group of linebackers took a major hit when the best looking of the group, Jonathan Goff went down and was placed on Injured Reserve. With first-round CB Prince Amukamara already out, second round pick DT Marvin Austin and starting CB Terrell Thomas also on IR, the Giants are also dealing with injuries to starting DE's Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. The feeling here is that Tuck will probably end up playing, but all indications are that Osi will not.
Talk about a bad way to start a season. The good news for the Giants is that on paper they are still the more talented team here and they have a major, major advantage at the most important position - Quarterback.

To think that a team (Washington) is really going to roll out Rex Grossman as their starting quarterback in 2011 is cringe-worthy. Jabar Gaffney, Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong don't exactly provide him with big-time weapons to utilize in the passing game either. He'll also have to make it work behind a make-shift offensive line. If the Giants were healthy along the D-line, this could potentially be a matchup nightmare, unfortunately, they are not.

If Washington is going to be competitive this season it is going to be thanks to their defense. Not exactly a unit that will get the heart pumping, but a few additions (including former Giants DT Barry Cofield) bolstered a line that is stout against the run, even if for years bland against the pass. If Brian Orakpo had any help whatsoever rushing the passer he might be considered one of the NFL's elite players. Still last year he managed 8 sacks and perhaps some improvement at DT will free him up to enter the double-digits. The secondary is basically what their headline player (Denagelo Hall) is - talented but wildly inconsistent.

Overall, I'm going to assume that Tuck gets on the field. With him and Pierre-Paul on the outside the Giants should have a major edge on the Washington O-Line. While Goff is out at MLB, rookie Greg Jones might prove plenty worthy as a fill-in. While Cornerback is going to be an issue, it doesn't appear that the Redskins QB or WR's are capable of exposing the Giants there. Hard to endorse laying road chalk especially when a team has questions on both sides of the ball. New receivers, no TE and an unproven new LT make betting the Giants a major favor long-term to Vegas oddsmakers. Overall, this is simply another game to be monitored from a distance.

Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals -7
O/U 37
In a running focus with NFC Quarterbacks, it seems that everyone is enamored with a bunch of guys that have yet to truly prove themselves. Enter Kevin Kolb. I won't go over his history as I'm sure if you're reading this blog you are well aware of it. I am not a Kevin Kolb hater by any means. I felt he had an unfair shake last season. He came out of college highly-touted by some very knowledgeable draft experts, and was loved by QB-guru Ron Jaworski. With that said, he holds a career 11:14 TD:INT ratio. That was while in spot duty for one of the leagues most powerful offenses. He now moves over to one that was completely inept last year. While everyone will point to the plethora of worthless Quarterbacks Arizona trotted out and the immense talent in the form of star WR Larry Fitzgerald, one point remains unclear - is Kevin Kolb really any good? If you know definitively know the answer to that question, you should be a professional in some football front office. Or maybe you already are, clearly, if that is the case - you work for the Arizona Cardinals, who went out and spent the entire bankroll on him.

What Kevin Kolb will be unlikely to find in his new home in Arizona, is a suddenly effective offensive line. Last year they had a makeshift unit that neither could open up running lanes or keep any of the random starting QB's off the turf. Perhaps Kolb can come in and make them look better and maybe that forces teams to back-off and opens up the running game for Beanie Wells to finally emerge as has been expected for some time now. But again, maybe not.

Defensively, the departure of Rodgers-Cromartie leaves a big hole, though they tried to fill it with a guy most thought to be the best prospect in this years draft in Patrick Peterson. Cornerbacks are awfully hard to grade out on TV, but I will say that DRC always seemed a bit overrated to me. Athletic, these play-making CB's tend to draw rave reviews for their highlight reel plays, but advanced scouting statistics on corners don't grade him out too highly. Regardless, the secondary looks like an issue and while the d-line and LB units seem solid enough, they don't appear to be overwhelming in any capacity.

On the other hand we have the Carolina Panthers and rookie QB Cam Newton. When you look at the Panthers and their 2-14 season last year then simply add in a rookie QB it's very easy to be completely dismissive of them. And why not? Anyone who caught any of their games likely saw one of the most inept offenses ever assembled. The problem with this is ignoring all of the injuries that struck to make the team so bad. All along the offensive line and at running back the 2010 Panthers were just ravished. On top of that, they for some reason thought Jimmy Clausen was a NFL-caliber starting QB. At no point in his entire career, including college, have I ever thought that about Clausen. Matt Moore, for the record, is not much better.

The Panthers offensive line actually has a reasonable amount of talent and if we can assume they are all again healthy there is no reason to suspect that they can't improve the leagues worst offense of a year ago. I'm not entirely sure what to expect out of Denagelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart at this point. But apparently healthy, they are still a potentially dangerous duo. While Cam Newton has struggled to find him in the pre-season, you also have to excuse Steve Smith who played last season without a line, QB or any motivation. At 32-years old I wouldn't just assume he's done as a serious pass-catcher in the NFL.

Defensively, the Panthers aren't going to be battling it out with Pittsburgh, the Jets or the Ravens for NFL supremecy. They also aren't as bad as the scores from last year indicate. Constantly punished by their own offenses complete lack of ball movement, expect the Panthers defense to be much more competitive this year when they can actually catch their breath on occasion. Say what you want about Cam Newton, but he's sure to extend a couple drives with his scrambling ability and that will be a welcome addition to both sides of the ball in Carolina.

Overall, this is perhaps the game that offers the most value to my eyes. We have a team coming off a 2-14 season with a rookie quarterback on the road. When you really look into it however, the Panthers appear to have the more talented defense, the better offensive line and the stronger running backs. The difference here very well could come down to Kevin Kolb outplaying Cam Newton to a degree that turns this one into a blowout. However, like I said, prove it to me first - and until Kevin Kolb proves to me that he is the quarterback Arizona thinks he is, they have no right laying 7 points to a team that plays in a much tougher divison, coming off a season of nightmare misfortune.