Green Bay -4.5
O/U 47.5
The battle of your last two super bowl champions. Plenty has been made of the lack of success teams have had defending their titles. Long forgotten thanks to a crushing defeat to the historic Seattle Seahawks in last years playoffs is that the Saints backed up their championship with an eleven-win season.
Normally, adding a running back, even one with as solid a running style as Mark Ingram brings to the table, would not give me much reason to expect improvement out of a team. At least not on its own. It is impossible to look back on the Saints of last year without noting that they went through somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 running backs which at one point reincarnated Ladell Betts and sunk even to the depth of dusting off Deshawn Wynn in what became an embarrassing playoff loss. With Ingram and the return of Pierre Thomas, it seems likely that balance can finally be restored to the Saints offense.
The meat and potatoes of handicapping this matchup likely comes down to this matchup: Greg Williams and his defenses blitz-addicted defense against one of if not the leagues finest Quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. With his agile feet, quick release and WR's with lots of YAC ability, this could pose a serious issue for the Saints defense. Jermichael Finley returning to action will also do the Saints no favors.
Additonally, Drew Brees showed many signs of regression last year. Was it the lack of balance in the run game due to injuries at running back? Or was age, wear and tear finally setting in on the undersized QB? Before game one of the new season I think we have no way of knowing this.
For these reasons I simply can't feel confident in taking the Saints to hang on the road with Green Bay for the season opener. Tempting as Green Bay looks, I also can't recommend laying 4.5 points in this spot. To take Green Bay, you are saying that you're comfortable riding a team that could be winning by 11 in the 4th quarter and still be in danger of a backdoor loss. Vegas has placed the value squarely on New Orleans here...however, I see a scenerio where Aaron Rodgers gets hot and the Pack jump out big.
First analysis of the new blog leads to a sad and boring result - no action. Betting football can be fun. But if you're serious about winning you have to be able to put the fun aside and think with your wallet. Besides, what's not fun about sitting down with a couple cold ones and no stress and watching the season opener between two of the leagues most lethal offenses and best quarterbacks? If you can't do that you're probably in trouble in this game.
Agree with much of the analysis there, especially with a no play here. Just no idea what teams you are going to see here tonight. I will also say I agree with you on Vegas giving you a slight edge with the Saints here, I think Vegas is letting people ride a slightly overrated GB team at home against a good team that most people have forgotten in Atlanta's shadow.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment. Agreed on what you're saying about an overrated team (let's face it, GB is just sexy with the young qb and the fresher super bowl rings) and another very quality team that is being overlooked a bit. If someone took the Saints here I certainly wouldn't argue.
ReplyDeleteAlso, re-reading that I am almost embarrassed to have even posted it without editing. Just felt I had to get something about before kick and had little time left.