How Did We Do?

Well, to be simple, not that well.

3-4-1
-1.4 units

Since I think it's important to reflect on your picks, even when you'd rather forget them, here is my reflection on the picks:

1:00 Sunday with three games riding the season got off to a near perfect start. The Bengals got out early and despite blowing a lead and creating some cause for concern ended up outright winners at +6.5. In the meantime, the Texans opened up a 30+ lead on the Colts. In Pittsburgh, things unraveled extremely fast for Pitt and they were never able to get anything going. All was not lost however as their offensive problems resulted in enough points for Baltimore to push the total over. 3-1 you'll take and like.
In hindsight, Pittsburgh looks and feels quite forced. Sky high on the team before the season, they were going up against a team I was pretty high on. To me, gambling on sports comes down to two basic things: A) Identify teams that will present value either betting on or against and B) Picking the right spots to bet on or against said teams. Looking back, taking the Steelers on the road against a team as talented as the Ravens, in week 1, getting less than a FG was no bargain and this was a clear case of point B.
Still, heading to 4:00 it was hard not to feel good. The Giants are my favorite team, but arguably have been my biggest cash cow over the last few years betting both on and against. Despite all the signs leading up to the game that the Skins were live (the line did the rare move through three)...I disregarded it, oversimplifying the game by boiling it down to QB v. QB. The Giants have a lot of holes and the duct-tape patch work was not strong enough. I still see some value in laying less than a FG in that spot, but clearly, I wish I stuck to my original plan and stayed away.
Much more crushing, from a betting standpoint, was what happened in the meantime in Arizona. Despite a miserable first half defensively, the Panthers caught a couple of breaks and were able to go into the half up 7 points. They also went into the 4th quarter with a 7 point lead and with every ticking second it was starting to look like the biggest play of the week was money in the bank. Arizona had the ball on their own 10 yard line with just 13 minutes remaining....2 minutes later they hooked up on a 70-yard TD pass to tie the game with 11 minutes. This was basically the only danger of not winning the bet as had they just been forced to use a lot of clock, the game would very likely end up being decided by a FG. With 7 minutes left, even having stalled out, Carolina was about to punt from the Arizona 47 and presumably would either pin them deep, or worst-case, give up a touchback. A lousy punt, followed by worse tackling, and 89 yards later and rookie Patrick Peterson blew the cover. Still, Cam Newton drove the ball down to the Arizona 6 with just over a minute remaining. A 4th and 5 pass to Mike Goodson resulted, painstakingly, a yard short.
There are a couple ways to look back at the game - I felt the first half was dominated by the Cardinals and we were very fortunate to be in such good shape. Still, it's hard to look back at the 70 yard TD pass followed by an extremely improbable 89 yard punt return and not feel sick about it. Cam Newton ended up throwing for 422 yards and both teams averaged over 7 yards per play. Tough beat on a game that shifted from extremely good fortune to extremely bad fortune from the first half to the second.

The Jets pick I think was a bit of a tilt play. I liked the Jets to win the game and said that if they were laying 3-4 I'd be all over them. 6 was clearly too many points though and the value was squarely on the Cowboys. I think I made a big mistake in the game where I wasn't looking for value, I was looking for a winner. Anytime you start doing that you know you are pressing and should not be betting. Bad decision on my part.

Last night I'm glad I stayed away from the Pats game. Coming off some rough losses it was hard to sit on the sidelines there but the bottom line is it played out about how I thought it would - the value was on the Fins, but the Pats were just too good. I did exactly what I should have done for the Jets game.
As for Denver, I think it was a mixed bag of a cap. The Broncos injury luck got no better as they had a number of guys who ended up getting dinged up. Run DMC made me look awfully foolish as he did whatever he wanted when given any type of space to work with. I did think that Jason Campbell proved incapable of backing on the road at a short price however. The biggest thing though, to me, was the thing that scared me - the Raiders front-seven outplayed the Broncos offensive line badly. Orton faced a ton of pressure all night and Moreno had absolutely zero chance anytime he was handed the ball. The Raiders secondary looked as weak can be. Maybe a touch of sour grapes, but I really think people are still underrating how fortunate the Raiders were last night. A) Playing with a lead was the only way they stood a chance last night. B) The blocked punt was huge for them. C) They hit a 63-yard FG. I'm not going to go overboard on the importance of the 63-yd FG in a game decided by three points since clearly the Raiders defense would've been playing differently if up 7 and not 10 late. Still, it's hard to ignore the flukey nature of hitting such a kick.

Overall, the bottom line is this - the Panthers win that game and things may change a bit...might have felt less inclined to force the Jets and either way it would've done wonders to the bankroll keeping out of the red and being in the slight green. And that is why you can't let outcomes affect your betting...you find and play value, don't force action, particularly on these primetime games and never ever chase.

Will hopefully post up game reviews at some point tonight, if not, definitely tomorrow.